In 2026 fantasy football best ball drafts, avoiding the wrong pick can matter just as much as landing the right one. Every draft room has those players whose ADP keeps climbing on hype, offseason headlines, or one late-season explosion that gets priced like a permanent breakout. The problem is best ball punishes overpaying for fragile ceilings. When you are drafting players at premium cost, you need weekly spike potential, reliable volume, and a clear path to production. These five names are being drafted too high right now, carrying price tags that may be built more on projection than proof. Before you make one of those draft clicks you end up regretting by October, these are the 2026 fantasy football busts to think twice about.
1. Tyler Shough, Quarterback, New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough at pick 118 feels like one of those draft clicks you justify in the moment and regret by October.
You are drafting a quarterback who finished 2025 averaging 216.7 passing yards per game, placing him firmly in the lower tier of NFL starters. That is not a profile built for best ball upside. Best ball rewards spike weeks, not cautious afternoons where 212 yards and one touchdown somehow count as survival. Shough cleared 250 passing yards only sporadically, which means the weekly ceiling simply did not show up often enough to justify a mid-round quarterback investment.
The touchdown profile gets even shakier. Shough threw 10 passing touchdowns on 327 attempts, which works out to a touchdown on just 3.1% of his passes. That sits well below the range fantasy managers want from a quarterback drafted ahead of pure upside swings. Efficient fantasy quarterbacks usually live closer to the 4.5% to 6% range. When touchdowns are already arriving this slowly, every red-zone handoff starts to feel like a small fantasy funeral.
Then there is the 48.8 QBR, and that number matters because QBR measures how much a quarterback actually improves his team’s chances to score and win by weighting passing efficiency, rushing impact, sacks, down-and-distance, and game situation. In plain language, it filters out empty yards and asks whether the quarterback is truly helping the offense move. A mark under 50 suggests the offense was operating in neutral at best.
At pick 118, you want ignition. Shough gives managers a dashboard with the check-engine light already on.
2. Jaylen Waddle, Wide Receiver, Denver Broncos
Jaylen Waddle at pick 47 now carries an entirely different kind of risk, because the move to Denver did not give him a clean runway. Instead, it dropped him into an offense where Courtland Sutton already has established chemistry with Bo Nix and already owns the kind of trust that matters when drives tighten near the goal line.
Waddle’s 2025 line closed at 910 receiving yards, just 56.9 yards per game, which already placed him outside true difference-making territory for a top-50 best ball pick. That number becomes even harder to justify when entering a new offense where Sutton just posted a clear production edge and remains the first receiver Bo Nix naturally looks for when structure breaks down.
The catch profile also remains less dominant than the draft cost suggests. Waddle caught 64 of 100 targets, a 64% catch rate, which is solid but not the kind of efficiency that compels a quarterback to force-feed targets. Sutton’s size and boundary role still give Denver a cleaner chain-moving and red-zone answer, especially in contested situations where timing and trust already exist between quarterback and receiver.
The touchdown math makes the price sting even more. Waddle scored 6 touchdowns on 100 targets, a 6% touchdown rate, while Sutton delivered 10 touchdowns and 1,081 yards, creating a clear advantage in weekly ceiling.
Denver traded for Waddle because he adds speed, but speed does not automatically erase established rapport. Bo Nix already has years of trust built with Sutton, and trust is often what cashes fantasy weeks when the field compresses.
At pick 47, you are drafting for command. Right now, selecting Waddle may simply mean drafting into someone else’s territory.
3. Luther Burden III, Wide Receiver, Chicago Bears
Luther Burden at ADP 37 is one of those draft-room escalators that keeps rising long after the floor has disappeared.
The rookie season offered flashes, but the full profile still flashes caution. Burden finished with 652 receiving yards in 15 games, which comes out to just 43.5 yards per game. That is not fourth-round weekly muscle. That is a player who needed efficiency and occasional splash plays just to stay visible in the box score.
The usage makes the price even harder to defend. Burden operated with only a 12.7% target share and roughly a 40% snap share, meaning he was productive in limited windows but still nowhere near full-command territory within the offense. At ADP 37, fantasy managers usually want a receiver already living in the 20% target-share neighborhood, not one still asking permission to become a full-time fixture.
Then comes the teammate problem. Rome Odunze still stands there with a much stronger established profile: 661 yards in only 12 games, which jumps to 55.1 yards per game, plus six touchdowns despite missing time. Burden’s late-season surge came largely while Odunze was sidelined, which matters because once both are active, the volume pie tightens fast.
And that price jump feels eerily familiar. It mirrors what happened with Xavier Worthy, where one explosive late-season game pushed the market into assuming the breakout had already arrived. Burden’s 138-yard eruption in Week 17 was electric, but one firework often gets priced like a permanent grand finale.
At ADP 37, you are no longer buying upside. You are paying full retail before even trying it on and checking the mirror.
4. Malik Willis, Quarterback, Miami Dolphins
Malik Willis at ADP 124 looks clever until you remember fantasy points still require real passing production.
The market is pricing in upside, but the actual statistical profile still leans backup more than breakout. Willis has produced only 1,332 passing yards across four seasons, a total full-time starters often clear before Halloween. Even in games where he saw meaningful snaps, the offense rarely opened up enough to create the kind of weekly ceiling best ball managers actually need.
The touchdown profile remains equally thin. Willis has thrown exactly six passing touchdowns in his NFL career and scored just 10 total touchdowns overall. That is why the draft room can simply wait. Sam Darnold, C. J. Stroud, and Bryce Young are often available one to three rounds later, yet each brings far more established passing volume, stronger weekly projection, and a much cleaner path to repeatable fantasy relevance.
At ADP 124, Malik Willis costs the upper limits of imagination. Those other names cost less while bringing receipts.
5. Travis Eitenne, Running Back, New Orleans Saints
Travis Etienne at ADP 26… wow.
The surface total from last season can fool people. Etienne cleared 1,100 rushing yards, yet that translated to only 65.1 rushing yards per game, which looks far less intimidating when stretched across a full season. He averaged just 4.3 yards per carry, ranking in the lower tier of primary fantasy backs, and his rushing success rate sat around 34%, meaning nearly two-thirds of his runs failed to create favorable offensive value. That is not dominance. That is volume carrying a profile that often struggled to move cleanly.
The touchdown profile also refuses to cooperate with the draft cost. Etienne scored only 7 rushing touchdowns on 260 carries, a 2.7% rushing touchdown rate that leaves him well behind backs who consistently cash in red-zone opportunities. Even more concerning for best ball, only 6.7% of his carries gained 10 or more yards, which limits the explosive spikes that separate tournament-winning backs from weekly placeholders.
Now he walks into an even harsher environment. New Orleans finished near the bottom of the league at 94.3 rushing yards per game, ranked 31st in yards per carry at 3.69, and generated only 0.96 yards before contact per rush. That means runners were meeting resistance almost immediately after the handoff.
So the fantasy market is paying a premium price for a runner whose efficiency already lagged, then placing him inside an offense that was even worse at creating rushing lanes.
Paying ADP 26 for Etienne is financing a G-Wagon and driving home in a Corolla.
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