I think everyone was shocked to wake up two weeks after the NFL Draft to see that there was breaking Pittsburgh Steelers news. We were more shocked that it involved trading George Pickens and not an Aaron Rodgers signing. The Steelers dealt the young receiver to the Dallas Cowboys in exchange for a reported third-round pick. Pickens is entering the final year of his rookie contract and has been looking for a long-term deal. This trade follows a long history of the Steelers dealing top wide receivers looking for deals. It’s a shocker, considering the Steelers traded FOR D.K. Metcalf this offseason. With Pickens not in Dallas, whose fantasy stock goes up and whose tumbles?
Winners of the George Pickens trade
Dak Prescott: Quarterback- Dallas Cowboys
Despite the Cowboys saying they are “All-in” the past two off seasons, this is the first move that actually shows it. Dak Prescott has shown that he can be a top-tier quarterback when healthy and with a solid team around him. The first part is out of everyone’s control, but this is the best receiving duo that Prescott has had since 2020 with CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. We will see what the offense looks like with new head coach Brian Schottenheimer, but when he was the offensive coordinator in 2023, a full, healthy season from Dak saw him throw the ball 590 times.
With Pickens now in the fold, Dak has a shot at getting back to the 35+ passing touchdown range. His last two full seasons, Prescott finished as QB3 and QB8. I expect him to be in that range, closer to the latter than the former. He hasn’t been running the ball as much as in his early career, but may have to if the offensive line can’t give him protection. The running game in Dallas is still suspect, so the ball may end up in Dak’s hands more often than not.
George Pickens: Wide Receiver- Dallas Cowboys
We are here for fantasy football information. Do I think the fantasy outlook for George Pickens increases now that he is a Cowboy? Yes and No. No, because I think his overall stats stay about the same. I think he will see a slight bump in opportunity. I project Pickens to see around 110 targets this season now. He saw 103 and 106 in the past two seasons. Not a huge jump. It’s a yes because I was projecting him with a lot less on the Steelers, given it looks right now like Mason Rudolph would be throwing the ball. It’s a yes because this will be the best quarterback that Pickens has ever played with and the best receiver mate he has ever had in Lamb. Pickens has yet to fully crack the top 24 wide receivers for fantasy. His best overall finish was WR30 back in 2023. I believe he will beat that this year, but not by much. I expect him to be in the WR25 range.
It’s also a win for Pickens, who is in the last year of his rookie deal. We should expect Dallas to be willing to give him a contract if they are giving up a third-round pick for him. That’s huge for a receiver who hasn’t shown it yet on the field but acts like he has. His deal will most likely be backloaded with the cap situation in Dallas. Pickens gets a fresh start in Dallas. I don’t think Super Bowls are in the future, given he goes from a division where he was on a team looking up at the Ravens and Bengals, and now has to look up to the Eagles and Commanders, but the NFC is easier than the AFC to make and advance in the playoffs.
Pat Freiermuth: Tight End- Pittsburgh Steelers
With George Pickens being traded to the Cowboys, someone has to step up and get more targets. Some will go to D.K. Metcalf for sure, but I don’t think a ton more than we already expected. The other wide receivers on the roster leave a ton to be desired. Calvin Austin III is primarily a slot receiver who doesn’t match up well out wide. Roman Wilson has been a fantasy roster clogger for me for a while. They just signed Robert Woods, who is now 33 years old and hasn’t been a factor in five years. To me, the biggest winner here is tight end Pat Freiermuth.
Freiermuth is coming off his best season, where he had 65 receptions on 78 targets for 653 yards and 7 touchdowns. He finished as the TE9 in fantasy, which no one seems to be talking about. Yes, before the trade, he seemed more left for dead as the third option in a weak passing attack, but now with Pickens on the Cowboys, that moves him back up. He just signed a 4-year contract with the Steelers, putting him there till the 2029 season. Freiermuth is the sneakiest tight end to draft right now. His average draft position (ADP) before the trade was TE16 in redraft and TE20 in best ball tournaments. For a player whose worst season (when playing a full season) was TE13, his rookie year, that seems criminal. TE9 and 8 in his past two full seasons. Doesn’t matter how bad the quarterback is, Freiermuth will get his and be a fantasy gold mine. The George Pickens trade just raises and reaffirms that.
Losers of the George Pickens trade
CeeDee Lamb: Wide Receiver- Dallas Cowboys
The take you will see from most people is that having George Pickens across the field means less double or bracket coverage against CeeDee Lamb, thus allowing him to be open more. While that is true, I just don’t see how this helps Lamb get more or even the same amount of opportunities he has seen the past three years. What has catapulted Lamb from solid WR2 production into the upper echelon of fantasy wide receivers is the massive jump in opportunities. His first two seasons in the league, Lamb saw 111 and 120 targets. Solid numbers. He had five and six touchdowns in those years. In his third year, Lamb jumped to 156 targets and hasn’t been below 150 since. SO what changed? Yes, Lamb is a great receiver. No doubt about that. But in his first two seasons (2020, 2021), the Cowboys had another solid receiver opposite Lamb in Amari Cooper. Before the 2023 season, when Lamb saw his targets jump, they traded Cooper to the Cleveland Browns.
Since that trade, the second wide receiver across from Lamb has been Michael Gallup, Noah Brown, an old Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert. None of them were in the category of Amari Cooper or George Pickens. I worry that Lamb’s targets drop to the 120-130 range. Still a large number of targets, making him the WR1 for the Cowboys, but drops him out of the top 10 for fantasy. Even last year, with 152 targets, he only had six touchdowns and finished as WR8. I get that it was with Cooper Rush for the bulk of the season, and Dak provides a higher quality of targets. I expect Lamb to now finish around WR12 this year with 100 catches, 1100 yards, and 7 touchdowns. Still a very good season, just not top five like we have been used to.
Aaron Rodgers: Quarterback- Free Agent
The Pittsburgh Steelers looked like the last hope for Aaron Rodgers to have a starting job in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season. It looked all along as if Rodgers wanted the job; it was his. Now I don’t think he wants the job. They just traded away probably their best pass catcher. Why would Rodgers want to join a team where he has low-end weapons? When you combine that with the fact that the Steelers are a run-first team and have a strong coach who won’t put up with Rodgers’ antics, the likelihood of Rodgers wearing the Black and Yellow in 2025 seems very slim.
Steelers fans and fantasy managers might be rejoicing in that because Rodgers has been a mess and a shell of his former self the past few seasons. Rodgers probably waits now for a team to lose their starter to injury and can feel like he is riding in on his white horse to save the day. It’s a far cry from the player who was back-to-back league MVP not too long ago.
D.K. Metcalf: Wide Receiver- Pittsburgh Steelers
If I’m D.K. Metcalf I’m pissed. You get traded to the Steelers. A team with no quarterback. Maybe he expected them to sign a veteran like Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers. Neither has happened so far, and Wilson is now a New York Giant. Then they don’t draft a quarterback until the sixth round. Then they trade away the other weapon in the passing game, in George Pickens. The fantasy outlook for Metcalf went from good in Seattle to bad in Pittsburgh and is now worse. Sure, Metcalf will be the target leader in Pittsburgh by a wide margin. His projections for me don’t change. I still have him around 110 targets. He was always going to get his. The fact that both Lamb and Metcalf can be downgraded with Pickens moving shows that not all systems and teams have the same dynamics.
The issue for Metcalf has always been quarterback play and a run-first offense. This trade just amplifies those concerns. The likelihood of Rodgers now signing there seems less likely. The run game seems to be more prominent with fewer passing weapons and drafting a running back in Kaleb Johnson. Metcalf has always needed a high touchdown number to be a solid fantasy WR2. I think he might still get there with seven touchdowns this year, but I will be shocked if he has over 1000 yards.
Let us know who YOU think are the biggest Winners and Losers over at The Fantasy Advice Network.
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