We are breaking down each division team by team and identifying who the sleeper and who the bust are for every team. We pulled average draft position (ADP) from Fantasy Pros on July 13th and will only be looking at guys inside the top 200.
A sleeper is someone who will out-produce their current ADP and ranking
A bust is a player who won’t live up to their ADP and rankings.
Buffalo Bills
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Josh Allen-31, QB2
James Cook– 43, RB15
Khalil Shakir– 82, WR42
Keon Coleman– 113, WR52
Dalton Kincaid– 135, TE13
Ray Davis– 144, RB46
Josh Palmer– 175, WR71
Sleeper- Keon Coleman
I love getting Coleman in the 9th round at WR 52. Last season, Coleman finished as WR71 but missed four games. What is encouraging for Coleman is his usage in games right before the injury and later in the season. In weeks 7 and 8, Coleman saw seven targets each. That was in line with an increased snap count. Injury slowed him in Week 9 and then cost him Weeks 10-14. At the end of the season, Weeks 17& 18, he saw 17 total targets. A sign that he was being used in offense once fully healthy.
Coleman will be the primary outside receiver for the Bills this season. While the Bills have an ” one eats mentality in the passing game, Coleman should he one of the higher target getters. Coleman excels at jump balls, so that skill, combined with his height, will make him a red zone threat. He will easily finish higher than WR52.
Bust- James Cook
I love James Cook. I’m a Bills fan and think they need to figure out a way to re-sign him. The issue for fantasy is that RB15 is probably his value, and he won’t exceed that. Cook was RB8 last year, but that was on the back of a massive touchdown total. Cook doesn’t get a ton of volume. Only seeing 207 carries last year was the 19th most in the league. He also doesn’t get a ton of pass-catching work, only seeing 38 targets last year.
Ray Davis was a rookie last year and saw half as many carries as Cook. Davis should see an increase this year. We know quarterback Josh Allen will steal goal-line carries from both running backs. If the receiving group can take a step up, then they may need the running backs less.
Miami Dolphins
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
De’Von Achane– 15, RB7
Tyreek Hill– 27, WR14
Jaylen Waddle– 56, WR29
Tua Tagovailoa– 134, QB22
Jaylen Wright– 162, RB51
Darren Waller– 204, TE29
Sleeper- Tua Tagovailoa
QB22 seems ridiculously low. Last season, Tua played only 11 games and finished as the QB22. A healthy Tua easily finishes as a top 20 if not a top 15 overall quarterback. This ADP seems like an overreaction to the injury history and the love for rookie and young quarterbacks.
Tua had his highest completion percentage of his career last season at 72.9%. He also had one of his lowest interception percentages at 1.8%. He threw 19 touchdowns in those 11 games. That’s one less than Caleb Williams, who played all 17 games.
Bust- Jaylen Wright
It’s hard to say a backup running back will be a bust, but currently, Wright is being drafted as the 19th-best backup running back. That seems crazy to me, considering we have a bunch of shared back fields like the Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and New England Patriots.
Wright saw 68 carries last year and six targets. His lack of involvement in the passing game will cap his upside. RB51 in the 17th round is a low cost, but how many more opportunities will Wright see vs last season? Gone is Raheem Mostert, but in came Alexander Mattison. The veteran fighting for work, along with Wright’s 3.66 yards per carry, makes him an easy avoid for me.
New England Patriots
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
TreVeyon Henderson– 59, RB21
Stefon Diggs– 86, WR44
Drake Maye– 112, QB16
Rhamondre Stevenson– 120, RB39
Kyle Williams– 156, WR64
Hunter Henry– 165, TE20
DeMario Douglas– 171, WR69
Sleeper- Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry is undervalued every year. It needs to stop. Yes, the Patriots brought in pass catchers. Doesn’t matter. Do I expect Henry to match his 97 targets from last year, where he finished as TE12? Probably not. Do I expect him to match the six touchdowns from 2023, where he finished as TE19? Potentially not. Do I think he will be better than his 2022 season, where he had 59 targets and two touchdowns? Yes, I do. That year, he finished as TE22.
So, in the worst year that Henery has had since coming to New England was TE22. Tell me how he is being drafted as TE20? He’s not going to be worse than that. Sure, he has to combine the targets from 2024 and the touchdowns from 2023 to be a top ten guy. He could easily split the difference between both years in both categories and finish with 79 targets, 54 receptions, 567 yards, and 4 touchdowns. That would give him 107. points in half ppr leagues and made him the TE15 last season. You don’t need crazy upside to be a sleeper. Just outperform your ADP.
Bust- TreVeyon Henderson
I like TreVeyon Henderson. I think he is a very talented running back, but I’m not buying him in the 6th round as the RB21. While he is good, we can’t just ignore Rhamondre Stevenson. Last season, Stevenson got 207 carries in 15 games. He was spelled by Antonio Gibson, who is still on the team. Gibson got 120 carries. So, how many carries can Henderson get, even if he is the lead back, which isn’t a given right now? Stevenson had six games with 15 or more carries but also four games with under 10 carries.
Henderson was a very efficient running back in college. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry at Ohio State. The Patriots are not Ohio State when it comes to the offensive line, and no running back in the NFL has that average. So the issue will be, where does Henderson’s production come from? If he’s an inconsistent volume player. Does he pass catch? It’s not something he did in college that much. Is he the goal-line back? He is the smallest of the three running backs. So I worry about him cracking the top 24 at the running back position.
New York Jets
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Garrett Wilson– 23, WR12
Breece Hall– 34, RB13
Justin Fields– 91, QB10
Braelon Allen– 168, RB53
Mason Taylor– 186, TE26
Sleeper- Garrett Wilson
This is simple. Who else is going to catch passes? Wilson should see a massive target share in the Jets offense. He finished last year with 154 targets despite spending half the season as second fiddle to Davante Adams. Justin Fields and he already have the connection from college, and Fields is known to hyper-target a player.
The Jets probably aren’t leading a ton of games, so passing will be needed to score points and move the ball. WR12 seems like the floor for Wilson. I expect him to finish in the WR5 range and possibly lead the league in total targets.
Bust- Mason Taylor
TE26 isn’t super high, so hard to bust when you are being drafted late, but I question if Taylor is even the primary pass-catching tight end for the Jets. If you look at the depth chart, there isn’t a ton of history there across the board. You can check out a deeper dive into that in our Tight End Camp Battle article.
Taylor wasn’t used to or productive in college, so there isn’t much hope for me coming into this year. Yes, Justin Fields made Cole Kmet a star, and we just talked about how there isn’t anyone else outside of Wilson and the running backs to catch the ball. My biggest fear is that Taylor loses snaps to Stone Smartt or Jeremy Ruckert. Drafting Taylor super late may seem great, but I’m not ranking him as the 26th-best tight end. That would mean there are six starting tight ends after him and not including back-ups like Isaiah Likely. Just seems like a recipe for not meeting expectations.