We are breaking down each division team by team and identifying who the sleeper and who the bust are for every team. We pulled average draft position (ADP) from Fantasy Pros on July 13th and will only be looking at guys inside the top 200.
A sleeper is someone who will out-produce their current ADP and ranking
A bust is a player who won’t live up to their ADP and rankings.
NFC North Sleepers and Bust
Green Bay Packers
Josh Jacobs– 22, RB10
Jayden Reed– 90, WR45
Matthew Golden– 96, WR47
Jordan Love– 115, QB17
Tucker Kraft– 124, TE11
Romeo Doubs– 157, WR65
MarShawn Lloyd– 188, RB59
Sleeper: Matthew Golden
The Packers are desperate for a wide receiver to step up and be the alpha on the offense. Jordan Love needs it, and it would help all the other receivers move back into specific roles that fit their skill set. The Packers drafted Matthew Golden to be that guy.
Golden is currently going just nine picks and two positional spots after Jayden Reed. Reed finished last year as the highest Packers receiver at WR29. Even if he and Golden were to split the workload then they would end up around their current draft cost.
Bust: Josh Jacobs
Things look great for Josh Jacobs right now. MarShawn Lloyd is dealing with another injury. There isn’t much in terms of competition behind him. The Packers have given him a ton of work since signing him back in 2024.
I worry about the wear and tear. Jacobs had 301 carries last season and 36 receptions. Those are close to the numbers he saw in 2022 (340, 53). In 2023, he missed four games, which could be linked to the beating his body took the year before. Not calling for an injury,y but it’s a red flag. Currently, he is being drafted as RB10, which would require him to have double-digit touchdowns. It’s hard to predict touchdowns year to year.
Chicago Bears
D.J. Moore– 41, WR21
Rome Odunze– 66, WR37
D’Andre Swift– 72, RB24
Caleb Williams– 92, QB11
Luther Burden III– 129, WR57
Colston Loveland– 146, TE15
Roschon Johnson– 173, RB54
Sleeper: D.J. Moore
The Bears changed out Keenan Allen for a rookie, Luther Burden, and tight end Colston Loveland. I don’t see Moore dropping down from the 140 targets he saw last season. I think it’s highly likely that he sees an increase.
Moore finished as WR16 last season, yet this year is being drafted five positions below that. If he does increase his target share, then his production will increase significantly. He finished as WR16, with only six touchdowns, so a bulk of his fantasy points came from receptions and yards. Those are much more predictable than touchdowns.
Bust: Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams falls into the same category as Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud. He is good but not great. Currently, he is being drafted as the QB11. That to me is the top of his ceiling. The likelihood of his not reaching that is greater than his reaching it.
Williams is dealing with a new system that doesn’t exactly fit his skill set. He is so much better when playing off structure, but new head coach Ben Johnson‘s system is built on structure and precessions. Williams finished as QB16 last season with 3541 yards and 20 touchdowns. The debate is whether the weapons are better this year than last year, and does he gets enough bump. I don’t believe they are that much better or better at all, so the pathway to increased fantasy production seems very murky.
Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson– 3, WR2
Jordan Addison– 71, WR38
Aaron Jones– 77, RB27
T.J. Hockenson– 87 ,TE5
Jordan Mason– 106, RB35
J.J. McCarthy– 119, QB19
Sleeper: Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones may be frustrating for fantasy with limited touchdown production and weeks with single-digit carries, but he is a sleeper this year. Even with a down year last season, he finished as RB15. Now being drafted as RB2.
Ye,s people expect Jordan Mason to be more involved than previous backups. Even if that is true, we don’t know what J.J. McCarthy is. I expect him to be good, but they could rely on the run more to give McCarthy an easier transition. Jordan Addison looks like he will miss some time with a league suspension. So I expect a big run game and Jones to be a lock for volume and decent production.
Bust: Jordan Addison
While his ADP has probably dropped with the legal issue being resolved and a suspension coming. I still don’t love Jordan Addison. Being drafted as WR39 puts him at a solid value when looking at his previous finishes, but there is more to it.
Jordan Addison has been very touchdown-reliant. He has one of the highest touchdown-to-target percentages in the league. That sort of efficiency isn’t something you can always count on. With a new quarterback and time missing g that efficiency is down. Tight end T.J. Hockenson to compete for targets, which he didnt for seven games last season and two and a half in 2023. Addison won’t ruin your season
Detroit Lions
Jahmry Gibbs– 6, RB3
Amon-Ra St. Brown– 9, WR6
Jameson Williams– 52, WR27
David Montgomery– 68, RB22
Sam LaPorta– 69, TE4
Jared Goff– 102, QB14
Sleeper: Jared Goff
This is another instance of the old guy being devalued while people drool over the young guns. Jared Goff has finished as QB10 or better the past three seasons in Detroit. Now he is being drafted as QB14. Are people really that worried?
I don’t think the offensive line loses a ton with center Frank Ragnow retiring. It’s a downgrade, but they aren’t going to drop from a top-half O-line to a bottom-five. I also think the loss of Ben Johnson kills all the value Goff has. John Morton comes in after years working with a who’s who of NFL coaches. Goff has been solid, gets his receivers all season, and doesn’t need to put up crazy numbers to beat his QB14 draft price.
Bust: Jahmry Gibbs. Let’s start with this. I love Jahmry Gibbs. I think he is a very talented running back and has a legit shot at finishing as the RB1 this season. He also has a chance at being lower towards the RB6. While I’m not doom and gloom on the Lions like some, the red flags can’t be ignored.
The offensive line and the offensive coordinator change are things to consider. I don’t think it’s a huge downgrade, but it’s still a slight downgrade. The bigger issue for me is that 20%+ of Gibbs’ carries came in weeks David Montgomery was out. 64 total carries in Weeks 16, 17, and 18. Does Monty being fully healthy eat into some ofGibbs’s work? You can argue, no o but there is still a ton of risk. RB3 seems like a very lofty finish for Gibbs this year. I expect him closer to RB6. While not a bust, but its the difference between an early first-round pick and an early second-round pick.