Have you been burned by drafting the same players in fantasy football and holding out hope that they’d get better? I know you’re thinking of Kyle Pitts, and this year might be when he breaks out for real. Whether he does or not, I’m shifting my focus towards veteran players who have declined in recent years. These 5 big-name players are all fantasy football players I’m not drafting again for good reason.
Fantasy Football Players to Avoid:
#5: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Last year, Patrick Mahomes finished outside the top 10 in fantasy for the first time as a starter. The year prior, he finished outside the top 5 for the first time. This year, he’s currently ranked around the QB5/QB6 mark. I don’t see him getting back up to that mark and expect him to be closer to the QB10-QB12 range. His volume has declined over the last 2 years, and the team hasn’t done much to improve his situation. Patrick Mahomes’ days of being a top 5 fantasy quarterback are over. He still might be a top 5 quarterback from a talent standpoint, but that doesn’t translate into fantasy production.
The Chiefs’ offense finished 15th in scoring last year and 14th in passing. The Chiefs’ offensive line got worse this offseason with Joe Thuney’s departure. Thuney is a 3x Pro Bowler and one of the top guards in the league. This opens another hole in an already thin offensive line that will have Mahomes scrambling more. An additional loss for the Chiefs is DeAndre Hopkins, who served in the WR3 role. In his one season, he still managed to put up over 400 receiving yards.
With the potential for their #1 receiver, Rashee Rice, to miss some time due to suspension and recovering from an injury, his ability to thrive again is a question mark. Yet, both Rice & Mahomes are being drafted as if Rice is playing a fully healthy season. In Rice’s place, Xavier Worthy is the next option up at receiver and was inconsistent last year. This often had Mahomes turning to ol’ reliable Travis Kelce, but this was another down season for the veteran tight end.
With the inconsistencies in the receiving room, I don’t see Mahomes making his way back up to a top 5 quarterback again. There are quarterbacks like Bo Nix and Jared Goff who are being drafted several rounds later at a price I’d be more willing to pay. Use this time to focus on getting a solid flex in this range instead of for your team, as there’s plenty of depth available.
#4: Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs
Heading into the 2024 season, Travis Kelce was ranked as a top 3 tight end in the league. This year, Kelce is still being drafted as TE5. This feels unrealistic as his days of being a top fantasy option are over. His production has declined in consecutive seasons, signaling a potential downward trend.. He’s entering his age-36 season and is working his tail off, but he just isn’t what he used to be. His target count makes him an appealing option in PPR formats, but his yardage is down. He posted the lowest receiving yards and touchdowns of his career as a starter in 2024 with only 823 and 3, respectively. These stats are still very impressive for any tight end. However, considering we’ve always viewed him as the clear TE1 in the league, this trend shows he’s regressing.
This year, Kelce is being drafted as a top-5 tight end, typically around rounds 5-7. This feels like a bit of a reach. Instead, you can wait for someone like David Njoku, Tucker Kraft, or Jake Ferguson, who will be available several rounds later. They all provide much better bang for your buck. If you’re the type of person to draft a tight end early, don’t draft Kelce solely because of his name. Try to land Brock Bowers in the late 2nd or Trey McBride early in the 4th. They’re the top two tight ends on my list that I’m targeting, followed by George Kittle in the 4th/5th. After those 3, the drop-off in talent is significant. If I don’t get one of them, I’m waiting until round 9 or later.
#3: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
It’s the biggest will he or won’t he question every year, and it haunts me. I draft him when he gets hurt, and I pass on him when he’s healthy. I’m stuck in purgatory with Christian McCaffrey, but the question lingers: Will he be able to play at a 20+ point per game level and stay healthy for a full season? I don’t see either of those two options happening. Over the last four years, McCaffrey has played 2 full seasons which is a bit concerning.
When he does play, he is a 20+ point per game player, but that was when the 49ers were not as battered down on offense. The 49ers lost both Jordan Mason and Deebo Samuel, who were able to provide running support. They will also start the year without Brandon Aiyuk and likely will need to lean heavily on CMC.
It’s a huge risk taking CMC within the first 15 picks of the draft, and he’s currently going at the turn around picks 8 through 12 in the 1st round of leagues. If I were able to get him around pick 20-25, I’d be more willing to take that risk. I don’t see him being able to stay healthy for a full season and not getting burned taking him again. There are a couple of players in this area that are risky, like Ashton Jeanty, Brian Thomas Jr, and De’Von Achane, but all three, I’d feel much safer taking over McCaffrey.
#2: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
As a diehard Miami Dolphins fan, it hurts me to put this one on here, but with last year’s troubles, Tyreek Hill is someone I am fading in fantasy. He failed to put up 1,000 yards for only the second time in his career as a starter. The last time he failed to do so was in 2019 when he only played in 12 games. Last year, he played all 17, but didn’t perform as well throughout the year. In the last game of the season, he quit mid-game and called it a season. This did not sit well in the locker room, and Tyreek has to rebuild that trust with his teammates this offseason.
Another reason Tyreek did not play as well last season was the limited play of Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has played only one full season since entering the NFL, and he missed time last year, appearing in just 11 games. Without Tua, Tyreek, and the rest of the Dolphins’ offense was dormant. With Tua, it still didn’t feel like things were clicking fully like it was during the 2023 season. Even if Tua does play, I’m not sure that he’s going to be throwing as many deep balls this year with how bad the offensive line is. With the unexpected retirement of Terron Armstead, this was a huge setback, and the Dolphins did not address the left tackle position in the draft. It’s going to be a lot of quick passes for Tua, and this doesn’t register for Tyreek to rack up as many yards.
Tyreek Hill is currently ranked as WR12. However, with the Dolphins continuing to decline, I don’t expect him to finish higher than WR20. His days as a top-5 receiver are likely behind him. Instead, opt for young players like Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, or Marvin Harrison Jr, who provide more growth potential.
#1: D.J. Moore, WR, Chicago Bears
Despite finishing as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in 2024, D.J. Moore only managed to finish as a top-20 option only 4 times on the season. These big performances skewed the rest of his output on the year, where he was typically in the WR30-WR40 range. It was disappointing the majority of the season when you aren’t getting 15 points per game out of someone who finished as WR6 the season prior. Without having that consistency all year long, I don’t want to pay a top-25 WR price for Moore.
To add to the fire, the Chicago Bears drafted both Luther Burden and Colston Loveland in the draft to give more weapons to quarterback Caleb Williams. With a lot of cooks in the kitchen, I just expect the opportunity for Moore to repeat as a top-20 receiver to be unlikely. He’s going to be fighting for targets with both Burden, Loveland, and second-year wideout Rome Odunze. Instead of taking Moore, there are a lot of guys in this range that I’d opt for instead, especially at the RB position. These players include Kenneth Walker III, Chuba Hubbard, and James Conner, who all provide much better value.