This is the second in a series about advanced statistics, and will cover the usefulness of Usage Rate (USG%).
Advanced fantasy players use advanced statistics to get ahead and fill out their rosters. Learning clever techniques for filling out your roster is what the offseason is all about. Below, we’ll find some draft bargains using USG%. Click here to see more advanced statistics for yourself.
What is Usage Rate?
Points league scoring rewards the player who has the ball most often, and that’s what usage rate tells us. This advanced statistic calculates how often a player ends a possession, either by a shot, turnover, or free throw. Even if the player has a low shooting percentage, a high USG% mixed with starter minutes is fantasy gold in points leagues. Usage rate is a very useful statistic in daily fantasy games. It can also be useful in category leagues if the player is more than a one-dimensional scorer.
Every one of the players in this article will be drafted this year in almost all leagues. If you follow the NBA, you might have heard of every one of these guys.
PG LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets (1st in USG% in 2024-5)
You might see Lamelo Ball on others’ so-called “do not draft” lists this year, but not mine. Advanced statistics tells that while Lamelo was on the floor, he finished more possessions than any other player in the NBA. If he had qualified in 2023-4, he would have finished second. The year before that, he would have been in the top twenty.
Because of injuries, the guard has played just 105 out of a possible 246 games over the past three seasons. LaMelo is regularly given a 5th or 6th-round ranking this season in points leagues. This is probably appropriate given the risk of drafting him.
However, the fifth round is also a great spot to get LaMelo Ball. There’s a whole list of guys like this. Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard have 6th-round rankings. Sign me up. Zion Williamson late in round five? Paul George in the ninth round? Yes please. Keeping with the theme of the column, Zion would have been fourth in USG% and Embiid fifth, if either qualified last year.
You might not want ALL of these guys at the same time. But you could surely roster two of them, especially if you have IR spots in your league. You will get what they give you while active. And, you can read my columns during the season to help replace them while not.
Depending on your risk tolerance, it’s okay to not draft any of the above list. For me, LaMelo is a 4th-round max. This means I will likely miss him in category leagues, where he is ranked higher. And that’s fine. But the minute he steps onto the floor, LaMelo Ball is the most active finisher in the NBA. That is exactly what you want in points leagues.
SG Shaedon Sharpe (43rd USG%); SF Deni Avdija (61st),
Portland Trail Blazers
I’ve already mentioned Deni Avdija in my TS% article, in depth. Draft Avdija this year, and don’t be afraid to reach a little. He finished in the full-season top 70 in most formats last year, and I’ve got him in my top 50 this year.
Teammate Shaedon Sharpe is another former lottery pick that should also get more work this year. Admittedly, Sharpe was not that impressive last year. The third-year player placed 150th amongst NBA qualifiers in TS%. He was also ninth-worst in three-point percentage.
This doesn’t make him undraftable. For example, Orlando’s Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero are drafted in the first five rounds, and shot similarly to Sharpe. What’s the difference? Banchero was 5th in the NBA in USG%, Wagner 10th, showing the power of this statistic. Both Orlando players averaged more than 24 points per game.
Even if he doesn’t get Banchero-like reps, I think his USG% could increase significantly this year. Sharpe is in his final rookie contract option year, which means he’s eligible for an extension after the season. The rebuilding Trail Blazers have about 200 million reasons ($$$) to want to know what Sharpe does with an expanded role.
Portland is sympatico with this logic. This offseason, Portland traded team scoring leader Anfernee Simons to Boston for veteran low-scoring point guard Jrue Holiday. Sharpe was 42nd in the NBA in scoring average last year, which could increase dramatically this year. He’s a potential steal in the last three rounds of your draft.
SG/SF Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers (63rd, USG%)
You might have watched Mathurin put up 27 points in 22 minutes in Game 4 of the NBA Finals. The guy is electric with the ball. He has posted a top-70 USG% in every year of his three-year career.
Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers’ superstar point guard, is out for the season. Last year’s starting center Myles Turner is now in Milwaukee. Their departure leaves 25 shots per game up for grabs in Indiana. Because of Mathurin’s historical usage rate, he will likely get a lot of those shots. He is a proven finisher that draws lots of fouls.
I would expect Mathurin’s usage rate to increase this year. This should push his scoring average to at least 20 points per game this year (16.1 last year), with upside for more. He’s better in points leagues, but you can also own him in category leagues. Round 10 or 11 is your max on Mathurin.
PF/C Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards (58th in USG%)
Sarr, the #2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA draft, finished fourth in the Rookie of the Year Award voting. He’s a well-rounded big man who did well in the counting stats, especially blocked shots. However, Sarr is regularly ranked outside the top-100 fantasy players. That is because the power forward had the lowest true shooting percentage in the NBA last year among qualifying players.
Even though he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn last year, the cellar-dweller Wizards kept giving Sarr shots anyway. His USG% was roughly equivalent to fantasy stars such as Desmond Bane and Evan Mobley, guys who can really shoot. If he’s definitely getting shots, you can use him on your fantasy team.
Advanced statistics and the eye test tell us that Sarr is likely to improve this year. In my article about Summer League, I mentioned that Sarr looked better with and without the ball in Las Vegas. He’s earned more minutes than the 27.4 he averaged last year.
That said, I would temper your expectations for a full second-year breakout. But Sarr is someone I would draft with one of your last picks regardless of format. You could even reach for him a little (10th-round max) if you like living dangerously. The Wizards are giving the young man the opportunity to finish while on the court.
