Welcome to Overreaction Monday (Week 1). This is where we come to take a completely reasonable look at this week’s slate of NFL games and react to them in a calm, cool, and collected manner. Just kidding!
It’s Overreaction Monday! Let’s get crazy and see what the guys have to say.
TyRecino’s Overreactions
Daniel Jones is BACK!
After beating out Anthony Richardson in camp, it raised a lot of question marks about what the Indianapolis Colts were thinking. It was Daniel Jones’ first start since week 10 in 2024, before being released by the New York Giants. His performance in the season opener against the Miami Dolphins gave us flashbacks of 2022 Daniel Jones, when he led the Giants to a playoff victory. Daniel Jones and the entire Colts offense were clicking on all cylinders against the Miami Dolphins.
Jones finished with 272 yards passing, 3 touchdowns, and even 26 yards on the ground. It was an electric performance from Jones, but all of that was against the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins entered the season with an entirely new secondary, a much weaker unit than last year’s. They lost their starting cornerback Storm Duck early in the second quarter and were forced to play Rasul Douglas the rest of the game. Douglas was just signed by Miami, less than a week before the season started, after the plethora of injuries the Dolphins’ defense had already suffered this offseason.
The Dolphins’ defense is nothing like the top-10 unit we saw last year. On top of that, Tua Tagovailoa turned the ball over three times, and each of those turnovers led to a Colts score and set them up in prime position to do so. The Colts are going to surprise people this year, but they were set to win this game already and expose the Dolphins’ defense for how bad it’s going to be.
Verdict: Overreaction
Zay Flowers Finishes as a Top-10 WR
Leading all receivers in fantasy points through week 1 thus far is Baltimore Ravens wideout Zay Flowers. Flowers had a massive performance, setting a career high in receiving yards with 143. He paired that with 7 receptions and a touchdown to finish with 28.1 fantasy points in PPR leagues. Zay was already someone that I was targeting in most of my drafts for how great a value he was. He’s finished the past two years as WR31 and WR25, respectively. His WR25 finish coincided with Lamar Jackson’s first 4,000+ yard passing season, and I see him repeating that in 2025.
The Ravens are my favorite to win the Super Bowl, and Lamar Jackson to win his 3rd MVP. With the Ravens committing to running more passing plays through Lamar, this just increases the opportunities for targets to Zay Flowers. Flowers doesn’t have much competition for targets, as the next best receiver on the team is the continuously disappointing Rashod Bateman. When we look at the receivers ranked around the WR8-WR12 mark, you have guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ladd McConkey, & A.J. Brown who are all in crowded receiving rooms.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Zay Flowers ending the season higher than any one of those players. Especially when we look at the remaining games on the calendar, the Ravens have one of the most favorable schedules ahead for fantasy receivers.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction
GOYAADi’s Overreactions
Miami Meltdown
A 33-8 annihilation at Lucas Oil Stadium wasn’t a game; it was a FUNERAL! The Dolphins were outclassed, outmuscled…out-everythinged as they take their first of an inevitable 17 straight losses, becoming the first 0-17 team since the season expanded.
Tua Turn-the-ball-ova (see what I did there?) had two picks and a fumble that sent Dolphin fans to the blue tent. Their defense made Daniel Jones look like Peyton Manning reincarnated with 272 yards and a pair of touchdowns. De’Von Achane’s late score was like putting a Band-Aid on a shipwreck!
And where is Mike McDaniel’s offensive genius? Apparently, the name “cheat motion” was accurate because we are witnessing a masterclass in sucking when the Dolphins have to play by the rules. When you can’t get Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to eclipse 70 yards combined, your goose is cooked. The good news, Dolphins fans, is that a 0-17 team is probably going to get the #1 overall pick. And your new coach is going to love having first choice among the 2026 QB class.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction
Bill is the RB1
Week 1? More like WEEK WON! This wasn’t just a performance; it was a statement. And that statement was, “BILL!, BILL!, BILL!
Shades of Alfred Morris, Jacory Croskey-Merritt burst onto the scene with 82 rushing yards and a touchdown scored on a 42-yard scamper. They tried to tell you that the 27-yarder against the Bengals in preseason was a fluke. Well, if this happens a third time, that would be a trend, and I’m telling you to get ahead of that trend. Croskey-Merritt is an RB1! You heard it hear first, now you feel it, because the ground is still shaking from this earthquake.
The Commanders made recent waiver darling Chris Rodriguez Jr. a healthy inactive, showing supreme confidence in their seventh-round sensation to carry the load. That trust was rewarded to the tune of an Achane-ish 8 yards per carry. Forget the RB4 depth chart shenanigans; that smokescreen was just blown away by a runaway train. So strap in, the JCM Express is now featuring non-stop service to RB1 territory. ALL ABOOOOARD!
Verdict: Slight Overreaction
Chase Thornton’s Overreactions
Keon Coleman is a WR1!!
The hype train on everyone’s favorite preseason sleeper hasn’t just left the station; it’s gone off the rails, threatening to wipe out everything in its path. Keon Coleman finally delivered the type of fantasy performance managers envisioned when they spent a top-10 rookie draft pick on him in Dynasty last season. It was a nice stat line for Coleman: eight grabs on eleven targets, 112 yards, and a spectacular tip-drill touchdown. It could’ve been even better. Two failed conversions and a shoestring tackle inside the 10-yard line in the game’s final minute prevented Coleman from logging a 35-point 1/2ppr banger.
But let’s slow the roll a bit. Coleman certainly looked the part, and the >24% target share is elite-level stuff. In fact, Coleman had career-highs in targets and receptions. But Khalil Shakir and Josh Palmer each saw nine targets as well. This was the best fantasy performance by a Bills wide receiver not named “Stefon Diggs” since Gabe Davis in Week 5 of 2022. And Josh Allen isn’t going to be throwing the ball 46 times every game. Coleman’s WR50 ADP could shape up to be a heck of a bargain. But let’s see how Coleman’s stat lines look after the next few winnable games for the Bills before we all jump on board.
Verdict: Overreaction. For now
Ladd McConkey is a draft bust!!
After a rookie campaign where he finished as the WR12 overall, fantasy managers were HYPED for Chargers wideout Ladd McConkey. So hyped, they were willing to spend an early third-round pick to make him the WR11. McConkey promptly rewarded them with an underwhelming WR23 finish in Week 1. That’s not exactly what managers were hoping for from the guy who led the Chargers’ pass catchers in targets, receptions, and yardage last season (and was second in touchdown catches).) Seeing him finish as the WR3 on his own team had to send chills down his managers’ spines. But we really should have seen this coming.
Now, it’s a small sample size. And McConkey is certainly going to “get his” at times this season; he’s too talented not to. But this was arguably the Chargers’ pass attack’s most efficient game under Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman. We know Roman’s not going to call 34 pass plays per game. McConkey led the team in target share in 2024, seeing just under 23% of passes come his way. But he didn’t have Herbert’s BFF Keenan Allen to compete with. Allen averaged about a 23% target share with Herbert from 2020-2023, and saw 23% of rookie Caleb Williams’s attempts in Chicago last season. There is a comfort level between Herbert and the five-time Pro Bowler. Additionally, the flashes of relative competency Quentin Johnston showed last season look to have carried over.
McConkey was just WR18 in 1/2ppr fantasy points per game last season. With more competition in a relatively run-heavy offense, there wasn’t much to suggest he was worth such a lofty ADP. Again, he’ll score you points and be a starting fantasy wide receiver. But that late second/early third round pick was probably better spent elsewhere.
Verdict: Not an overreaction
Well, there you have it, folks. Those are our completely rational and not at all knee-jerk reactions to this week in the NFL. Check back next week for more level-headed fantasy football takes at FSAN.