Welcome to Overreaction Monday (Week 5). This is where we come to take a completely reasonable look at this week’s slate of NFL games and react to them in a calm, cool, and collected manner. Just kidding!
It’s Overreaction Monday! Let’s get crazy and see what the guys have to say.
Ty Recino’s Overreactions
Darren Waller is a top-5 Tight End for the rest of the season.
With the tight end position being such a hit-or-miss in fantasy football, it’s not crazy to think that Darren Waller can finish as a top-5 tight end. Waller has 3 touchdowns through 2 games. Once Tyreek Hill went down, Waller became Tua’s #2 target, with Jaylen Waddle being #1. Waller is playing the role that Jonnu Smith thrived in last year. He is going to continue to develop rapport with Tua, and as the Dolphins play behind in many games, they’ll be throwing a lot and a lot of those balls are going to go to Darren Waller. Waller will be a target machine as his workload ramps up, and it’s a possibility he ends up as a top-5 TE for the remainder of the year.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction
Jacory Croskey-Merritt can finally be worth starting now
It took 5 weeks, but it was worth the wait. Jacory Croskey-Merritt finally had his breakout game that we’ve all been waiting for. JCM led the team in carries by himself for the first time all season. He had over 100+ yards rushing and two touchdowns against a good Los Angeles Chargers defense. The rookie made a name for himself today and proved to the Commanders that they should not use a committee approach anymore and let him get the starting duties from here on out. If the Commanders were smart, they would do this. Either way, what we saw today was enough to trust him in fantasy now.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction
FFMadScientist’sOverreactions
Nick Chubb is the RB1 for Houston, not Woody Marks!!!
Week 5 was deemed to be Woody Mark’s breakout week as the Texans appeared to have turned over the backfield to the rookie running back. Fooled you! As it turns out, they gave more touches to veteran running back Nick Chubb. Chubb carried the ball 11 times to Marks’ 7 times.
Chubb was able to turn his touches into 61 yards and 1 touchdown, while Marks was only able to rush for 24 yards. Marks led this backfield in carries in Week 4, but through the first three weeks of the season, Chubb had led the team consistently.
Over the next few weeks, the Texans have a bye, followed by Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver. This is a tough schedule for running backs, and it’s likely the Texans will want to rely on the veteran to get them through this tough slate of games instead of the green rookie.
Look for Chubb to continue to lead this backfield in carries for the foreseeable future, with neither running back being a significant factor in the passing game.
Verdict: Overreaction. This split was heavily influenced by Garbage Time.
Matthew Stafford will finish as a Top 5 QB
I have Stafford as a top 5 quarterback rest of the season, and that doesn’t feel bold enough given the fact that he is currently QB1 on the season. After three games of around 30 pass attempts and just over 200 yards and 2 touchdowns, Stafford shifted it into a higher gear over the past two weeks, throwing at least 41 times with at least 375 yards and 3 touchdowns.
This production came against the Colts and 49ers, two defenses that, while not elite, are formidable enough to be impressed by his production. Stafford has a bye in Week 8, but aside from that, his next three matchups are the Ravens, Jaguars, and Saints, all of which have been great for quarterbacks in fantasy.
It’s entirely possible that by the time Week 10 gets here, Stafford will find himself still sitting atop the QB1 rankings. The second half of his schedule has a few tougher matchups, but nothing that wouldn’t allow the QB1 to at least remain in the top 5.
Verdict: Not overreaction. This is easily within the realm of possibility.
Chase Thornton’s Overreactions
Rico Dowdle should be the Panthers’ RB1!!
Rico Dowdle seemed like a forgotten man entering the 2025 fantasy season. Despite leading the Cowboys in rushing in 2024, Dowdle entered the season as the clear backup to Chuba Hubbard in Carolina. Sitting behind a rock-solid RB2 left him no better than a handcuff in many fantasy managers’ minds. And through the first four weeks of the 2025 season, that’s exactly what he was. And then Chuba Hubbard injured his calf.
All of a sudden, Dowdle was a hot waiver pickup. And his performance in Week 5 justified all the optimism. Dowdle had one of the best games in Panthers’ history, rushing 23 times for 206 yards and a touchdown. Dowdle would add three catches on four targets for an additional 28 yards. The 206 yards rushing is over 50 yards more than Hubbard’s best game ever, and is the best in the league this season by almost 30 yards. His 30.9 half-PPR points are the third-best fantasy score on the season among running backs. Chuba has been barely a top-24 fantasy running back and is nursing a lower-body injury- potentially kryptonite for a running back. It looks pretty cut-and-dried that Dowdle deserves to be the RB1 in Carolina, right?
Not so fast.
Yes, Dowdle had a monster game. And it’s a luxury for both the Panthers and fantasy managers to have a guy like Rico in reserve. But this is- and should be Hubbard’s job. Dowdle’s previous career-best game yardage total was 149 on 25 carries in Week 15 of last season. His previous high mark in fantasy scoring was a 19.8-point effort two weeks before that. This game was an outlier on several fronts. Plus, Carolina signed Hubbard to a large contract extension last season despite having drafted Jonathan Brooks in the second round. Chuba is a locker room leader and a key piece of the Panthers organization. Dowdle did what you want your backup to do. He filled in for the starter with no drop-off. If Hubbard misses any more time, Hubbard will be a streaming option in those weeks. But when Chuba’s ready to go, Dowdle will (and should) return to his 35% snap share.
Verdict: Overreaction
A.J. Brown should be traded, either by the Eagles or fantasy managers!!
The going has been rough for A.J. Brown this year. He was coming off a season where he ranked 13th among wide receivers in fantasy points per game. All the key pieces of the Eagles’ passing attack were returning. Brown was drafted as WR10 with high hopes. But through Week 5, Brown is languishing in Offensive Coordinator Kevin Patullo’s offense. Brown ranks just 41st in fantasy points among wideouts. He has just one touchdown and one 100+ yard game on the year. There’ve been public displays of frustration to the point that he team reportedly was planning to target Brown more. But Week 5 saw Brown with his customary eight targets. He averaged 5.4 yards per target. That’s exactly his average this season, but well below his career average of 9.9 and his 2024 mark of 11.1.
And therein lies the problem. It’s the way Patullo’s calling this offense more than anything. The Eagles rank just 24th in yards per pass attempt. Last season, they were seventh. Even on a day when the Eagles were obviously trying to get the ball to Brown and teammate DeVonta Smith more, Brown ended up with a pedestrian statline. Head Coach Nick Sirianni publicly questioned some of the playcalling after the game. If things don’t change drastically under Patullo, Brown, and his fantasy managers are going to continue to be frustrated. It sucks. You’re likely only getting pennies on the dollar for Brown at this time. But trading Brown for a more usable piece is likely your best bet. He’s not leaving Philly anytime soon.
Verdict: Not an overreaction.
Well, there you have it, folks. Those are our completely rational and not at all knee-jerk reactions to this week in the NFL. Check back next week for more level-headed fantasy football takes at FSAN.
Check out Mike Lindberg and Brendon Booth‘s Week 5 Overreaction video on the FSAN YouTube Channel on this week’s Fantasy Forecast.