In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data becomes more prevalent as we have a larger sample size of games, but I still like to leverage it to eliminate the noise of early-season matchups sooner rather than later.
Here’s Week 6’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Dallas Cowboys are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Bryce Young) while the Atlanta Falcons are not (bad matchup for Josh Allen).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Cooper Rush, BAL
Baltimore is absolutely horrendous on defense and will likely need to produce at a high clip to have any hope of… who am I kidding… There isn’t a world in which they win this game. ESPECIALLY after the Rams dropped one to the 49ers last week. Los Angeles has sneakily allowed 20.5 PPG to QBs in the last 3 weeks (6th most). Cooper Rush could have a generational garbage time performance.
RB: Kenneth Walker, SEA
Jacksonville has allowed a whopping 20 receptions in the last 3 weeks to RBs, resulting in 26.6 fantasy points allowed per game (9th most). KWIII is the most likely player in the Seahawks backfield to benefit, as he has a slight edge in target percentage compared to his committee-mate, Zach Charbonnet.
WR: Rome Odunze, CHI
Rome was hot going into the bye week, and I fully expect him to come back on a tear. Washington has allowed the 4th most points to WRs in the last three weeks. This game has all the makings of a shootout. I’d be looking into many of the players in the CHI vs. WAS game for DFS purposes.
TE: Jake Tonges, SF
It looks like we will be without George Kittle for one more week, so stick your Tonges out. He has a great rapport with Mac Jones and faces a Tampa Bay defense allowing 18.1 points per game to TEs in the last three weeks (4th most). Go out on a wave of glory, king!
Fricks
QB: Jalen Hurts, PHI
New York’s defense has settled in over the last three weeks, only allowing 12.9 PPG to opposing QBs (6th least). While many will point to Spencer Rattler being the cause of this decline, they also locked up Mahomes and Herbert. Temper your expectations for Hurt, who has already struggled a decent amount this season.
RB: Travis Etienne, JAX
On the season, Seattle boasts a top 10 matchup for RBs. However, in the last three weeks, they’ve only allowed 19.6 points per game, making them the 9th toughest matchup for RBs. Etienne shapes up to be a TD-dependent RB2 rather than a sure-fire start in Week 6.
WR: Calvin Ridley, TEN
The Calvin Ridley WR1 experience we hoped to see on draft day may have to wait another week. While on paper, Las Vegas has been the 4th most advantageous matchup for WRs on the season, they have slid down to 11th over the course of the last three weeks. Vegas has been giving up the majority of its points on the ground, so it could be slim pickings for Ridley once again.
TE: Tyler Higbee, LAR
Matt Stafford on a heater? Check. Baltimore defense in shambles? Check. Advantageous matchup for TEs? Not so fast… Despite the leakiness of the Ravens’ defense, don’t expect much from Tyler Higbee or other random Rams TE of choice. Baltimore has only allowed 11.7 points per game in the last 3 weeks to TEs.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on the From the Forum Week 6 video on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.