In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data becomes more prevalent as we have a larger sample size of games, but I still like to leverage it to eliminate the noise of early-season matchups sooner rather than later.
Here’s Week 7’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Dallas Cowboys are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Jayden Daniels) while the Houston Texans are not (bad matchup for Sam Darnold).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Matt Stafford, LAR
Puka Nacua will likely miss time this week, but I do not think that this will impact Stafford’s ability to sling it against the Jaguars. While it is true that the Jags have been a darling from a fantasy perspective, their aggressiveness leads to a high variance of results. On the season, the Jags are ranked the 12th best matchup for opposing QBs, but in the last three weeks, they’ve been a Top 5 matchup allowing 20.8 PPG. Add into the mix that Devin Lloyd will not suit up, and everything is looking right for Stafford to have a big week.
RB: Javonte Williams, DAL
While some may point to Javonte cooling off after his 29 yard performance against the Panthers last week, I fully expect him to right the ship against the Commanders. In the last 3 weeks, the Commanders have allowed the 5th most points to opposing running backs, and given the state of the Dallas defense, it would be a wise decision to control the time of possession and feed the 25 year old bellcow.
WR: Nico Collins, HOU
It’s been a bit shocking that Nico Collins enters Week 7 as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Seattle is banged up in the secondary with both Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon missing their Week 6 game against Jacksonville. On the season, the Seahawks are allowing the 13th most points per game to opposing WRs, but in the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 45 points per game, making them the best matchup for opposing WRs. Nico should get to a hot start out of the bye.
TE: Dallas Goedert, PHI
There have been plenty of things going wrong with the Eagles offense this season, but Dallas Goedert is not one of them. Averaging over 6 targets per game and being targeted in the red zone consistently for the first time in his career (9 targets for all of 2024, already 5 in 2025), Goedert has all the makings of a Top 5 season finish. The Vikings have allowed 19.5 points on average to TEs in the last three weeks against potent offenses in Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. Furthermore, Minnesota only aligns in man-to-man 21.1% of the time, which should also help funnel targets to Goedert.
Fricks
QB: Bo Nix, DEN
On the season, the Giants appear to be a middling matchup allowing the 14th most points per game to QBs. However, in the last 3 weeks, they’ve been the 12th toughest matchup only allowing 15.4 points per game. The one saving grace for Nix will be the Giants reliance on man-to-man defense. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Giants have aligned in man-to-man on 44.6% of snaps. This has been the alignment Nix has performed best against this season, averaging 0.68 fantasy points per drop back. I will be lower than consensus on him this week.
RB: Chase Brown, CIN
A season of disappointment seems like it will continue for Chase Brown on Thursday night. In the first two weeks of the season, the Steelers were being run all over, but their defensive front appears to have settled with the edition of rookie, Derrick Harmon in Week 3. The Steelers are only allowing 20.6 points per game in the last three weeks which is rather surprising given that they’ve conceded 22 receptions to RBs in that time frame. It will be tough sledding for Brown.
WR: Chris Olave, NO
Chris Olave has been an absolute target hog this season trailing only Puka Nacua and Drake London in targets per game. Chicago is starting to find its groove against the pass only allowing 27.3 points to WRs in the last three weeks. Olave will continue to see his large target share, but I’m not expecting this week to be his “positive regression performance”. He’s a great buy low candidate.
TE: Cade Otton, TB
Cade Otton is the last standing pass catcher from the Week 1 starting lineup in Tampa Bay. In a similar situation last season, Otton provided hope for the Tight End Wasteland, but I am not expecting a similar output against the Lions. Detroit is only allowing 10.1 points to TEs in the last three weeks. Baker is going to have to continue his MVP start to the season if they will have any chance in that game.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on the From the Forum Week 7 video on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.