Welcome to Week 6: “Fluke or Future?” In this weekly article, we look back at surprising fantasy performances from “the week that was” in the NFL. Then, we look at the evidence to see if those performances were a fluke or if they’re indicative of prospects. Whether good or bad, we’ll discuss who “lucked out,” and who was “locked in.”
Week 6 Fluke or Future: Two for Tetairoa
Fantasy managers drafted Tetairoa McMillan with high hopes. The Panthers’ rookie wide receiver was drafted as the WR25, expected to be a FLEX option at worst. Thus far, McMillan’s performance has been a mixed bag. He currently sits as the WR21 in Half-PPR scoring, so he’s technically outplayed his draft slot. But his two touchdown catches this past Sunday were his first of the season. McMillan finished as WR12 in Week 6- the first time he’s finished as a top-24 option on the week, let alone top-12.
But there’s reason for optimism. Several reasons, in fact.
What the numbers say
To this point, McMillan has seen borderline elite usage. That bodes well for his continuing fantasy prospects. McMillan is tied for ninth among wide receivers in total targets. His target percentage ranks him WR19 in that category. The numbers in the Red Zone are even more encouraging, as McMillan is tied for sixth in targets and sits eleventh in points inside the 20 among wideouts.
His counting stats have been a bit depressed by several factors. McMillan has the fourth-lowest reception percentage of any receiver in the top 24 in fantasy. Of the top-10 receivers in targets, only Davante Adams has seen a lower percentage of catchable targets. And through six games, McMillan has been credited with three dropped passes. But even these clouds have silver linings. The rapport between McMillan and his quarterback, Bryce Young, seems to be building momentum. And Young is on pace for his best passing season ever, in basically every statistical category.
Week 6 Fluke or Future Verdict
McMillan is by far the number one option in the passing game for Carolina. The Panthers have run the fourth-most offensive plays of any team and attempted the eleventh-most passes. With McMillan seeing a full quarter of the targets, he should see enough usage to continue to pile up counting stats and, thus, fantasy points. The return of a healthy Chuba Hubbard, combined with the emergence of Rico Dowdle as a bona fide weapon in the Panther rushing attack, should only help McMillan see favorable defenses. And Carolina has the fourth-most favorable schedule for fantasy wide receivers the rest of the season.
It may have taken a month and a half for the 2025 NFL Draft’s top wide receiver selection to find the end zone for the first time. But it took him less than two quarters of gameplay to find it again. The numbers aren’t lying. Tetairoa McMillan is the real deal. Look for his end zone trips to be much more frequent going forward. Our Week 6 Fluke or Future answer is a decidedly rosy future.
For more great fantasy advice, check out Injuries, Breakouts & Waiver Wire Steals on this week’s episode of The Fantasy Forecast with Grindberg & Bigz over on the FSAN YouTube Channel.