In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data becomes more prevalent as we have a larger sample size of games, but I still like to leverage it to eliminate the noise of early-season matchups sooner rather than later.
Here’s Week 8’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Dallas Cowboys are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Bo Nix) while the Houston Texans are not (bad matchup for Brock Purdy).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Michael Penix, ATL
The Dolphins have been known this season to be porous against the run, but they haven’t fared much better against the pass. In the last three weeks, the Dolphins have allowed 20.1 points to opposing quarterbacks, making them the 4th most advantageous matchup in the NFL for Week 8. This includes last week’s game in Cleveland where weather made passing almost impossible. Penix could serve as a great one week fill in given the number of injuries at the QB position and the number of teams on bye.
RB: Rachaad White, TB
Bellcow Rachaad White seems to be on the menu again as the Buccaneers are on bye in Week 9. Expect Bucky Irving to continue to rest his assortment of injuries with the Bucs coming off of the short week due to the Week 7 Monday Night Football game. New Orleans has given up 23.5 points to opposing RBs in the last three weeks. I expect a positive game script to benefit White a decent amount, and he should be a high end RB2 with RB1 upside.
WR: D.K. Metcalf, PIT
Aaron Rodgers revenge game? This could be a really fun one to watch. D.K. saw his 4-game touchdown streak come to an end last week, but welcomes a Green Bay Packers defense that has allowed 39.4 points per game in the last three weeks to opposing receivers (including two monster games from Ja’Marr Chase and George Pickens). Couple this with the fact that the Steelers are giving up the most points in the last three weeks to opposing wide outs, and all signs point to Metcalf having a huge role in order to keep the Steelers afloat.
TE: Oronde Gadsden, LAC
Oronde Gadsden is the Waiver Wire darling of Week 8 after his 7 receptions, 164 yards, and a touchdown outburst against the Colts. While it may be difficult to replicate such a major performance, the matchup against Minnesota is appealing. Minnesota is a top 10 matchup this week allowing 14.2 fantasy points per game in the last three weeks. I think that the over gets smashed in this Thursday night tilt, which could mean another big game for Gadsden.
Fricks
QB: Andy Dalton, CAR
The Red Rocket once again finds himself lining up as a starting QB after Bryce Young injured his ankle in Week 7. Don’t expect a fountain of youth performance against the Buffalo Bills akin to what we saw from Joe Flacco or Aaron Rodgers. Despite being a middling defense based on season totals (18th most PPG allowed), they have only allowed 13.6 points per game in the last three weeks. You’ll want to look elsewhere for your desperation QB play.
RB: D’Andre Swift, CHI
The Ravens are the second most advantageous matchup to running backs on the season, compliments of a Week 3 shellacking courtesy of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combining for over 40 points. However, the Ravens’ defense has faired much better against the run in the last three weeks only allowing 20.7 points per game. While Swift and his counterpart, Kyle Monangai, were more than serviceable options in Week 7, it should be tougher sledding against a rested Ravens team.
WR: Zay Flowers, BAL
I don’t have a lot of confidence that Lamar Jackson will suit up for this week. It was rather shocking that even after the bye week, he is still listed on the injury report as Out. It will be interesting to see how that continues to unfold. Even with Lamar at the helm, Chicago has only allowed 27.3 points per game to opposing WRs in the last three weeks. I’d be looking for alternatives to Flowers as he is seemingly boom or bust.
TE: George Kittle, SF
George Kittle’s 2025 campaign has got off to a brutal start. He tore his hamstring in Week 1, forcing him to miss five weeks. Fantasy managers have to be kicking themselves after he returned in Week 7 to put up a goose egg, failing to haul in either of his two targets. The Texans defense is as good as advertised, only allowing 7.8 points per game to TEs in the last three weeks. Granted, none of those tight ends were George Kittle, but temper your expectations on a return to dominance. You should try to buy low on him after this week.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on the From the Forum Week 8 video on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.