In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data becomes more prevalent as we have a larger sample size of games, but I still like to leverage it to eliminate the noise of early-season matchups sooner rather than later. This especially holds true as we head towards the playoffs.
Here’s Week 10’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the New York Giants are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Caleb Williams) while the Buffalo Bills are not (bad matchup for Tua Tagovailoa).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Geno Smith, LV
To put it lightly, Geno has massively underperformed relative to expectations this season. On a points per game basis, he is QB30 and has finished with less than 10 points in 50% of his games this year. Things looked a lot better last week with the return of Brock Bowers. On the season, the Broncos are the 3rd worst matchup for opposing QBs, but in the last three weeks, they’ve been much more average, allowing 17.3 points per game. Geno can be a solid QB2 and a sneaky DFS start this week.
RB: Rico Dowdle, CAR
Who had Rico Dowdle as a potential league winner on their bingo card? He has absolutely taken over the running back room in Carolina and has provided a huge spark for their offense. I expect him to keep the momentum rolling against New Orleans. In the last three weeks, they have allowed 27.3 points per game to running backs, making them the 5th best matchup in the league in that timespan.
WR: Jaylen Waddle, MIA
Jaylen Waddle has seen a strong uptick in performance after Tyreek Hill’s season ending injury. It seems as though he has transitioned into the number one option for Tua with ease. He’s had over 80 yards in 4 of his last 5 games and goes against a Buffalo team allowing 31.7 points per game to opposing wide outs in the last 3 weeks. While these are average numbers, this is a much better matchup than the season long averages indicate for the Bills, who have been the 11th toughest matchup to WRs on the season.
TE: Brock Bowers, LV
The king has returned! Bowers quickly reminded folks why he was a premier selection in fantasy this season with 12 reception, 127 yards, and 3 touchdowns in his first game back from injury. This week, the Raiders take on the Denver Broncos. I already spoke about how Geno Smith could be a solid QB2, and he will do so by peppering Bowers with targets. Denver is allowing 18.2 points per game to opposing tight ends in the last 3 weeks while facing Houston (eh…), Dallas (ok, respectable), and the Giants (eh…). I think that pairing Bowers and Smith could be a great DFS play this week.
Fricks
QB: Drake Maye, NE
Drake Maye’s sophomore leap has been incredible to watch. Temper your expectations against Tampa Bay though. In the last three weeks, they’ve only allowed 9.5 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Yes, this includes the luxury of playing New Orleans, but Jared Goff did not see much more success against the Bucs at home in Detroit. Drake Maye is more of a back end QB1 than a Top 6 option this week.
RB: Aaron Jones, MIN
Aaron Jones had the makings of a solid return back to the lineup against Detroit as he tallied 78 yards on 9 carries after missing multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. He unfortunately left the game with a shoulder injury but is trending towards playing in Week 10. Even if this is the case, I would look for alternative options for your lineups. In the last 3 weeks, Baltimore is only allowing 18.3 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs. It will be tough sledding for both of the Vikings’ running backs.
WR: AJ Brown, PHI
AJ Brown has had strong showings in back to back weeks, but it may be a little tougher to keep the momentum rolling this week against Green Bay. In the last 3 weeks, the Packers have been the 11th toughest matchup to opposing wide receivers. Even more worrisome for Brown, they’ve kept team’s top receiving options in check. Marvin Harrison Jr., DK Metcalf, and Tetairoa McMillan were all held to under 60 yards against the Packers in this 3 game stretch.
TE: Juwan Johnson, NO
The Tyler Shough experiment has not been very fruitful for the Saints thus far. Juwan Johnson has been one of the few bright spots in the offense and has been a featured target for Shough in his short time as a starter. You might be thinking that with the departure of Rashid Shaheed, Johnson will see his role in the offense further increase. While this may be the case, Carolina is a tough team for tight ends as of late, only allowing 8.6 points per game in the last three weeks.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.