Welcome to Week 9: “Fluke or Future?” In this weekly article, we look back at surprising fantasy performances from “the week that was” in the NFL. Then, we look at the evidence to see if those performances were a fluke or if they’re indicative of prospects. Whether good or bad, we’ll discuss who “lucked out,” and who was “locked in.”
Week 9 Fluke or Future: Bower Power
After a rookie season where Brock Bowers led all tight ends in targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy scoring, fantasy managers spent a late-second round pick on average to take him as the TE1. And over the course of one week, it worked out pretty well. But Bowers would follow up his overall-TE1 finish with three straight mediocre outings. An injury would rob him of the next three games (Las Vegas had a bye in Week 8). Not only had his fantasy managers lost him to their lineups for a month, but they’d really only gotten one usable game out of him. He certainly hasn’t returned value at his ADP.
But he did return to the field in Week 9, and what a return it was. Bowers caught 12 of 13 targets for 127 yards and a trio of touchdowns in his first career multi-score game. He was even credited with six rushing yards after taking a sweep around the left side. The receiving numbers were all career highs, as were his 37.3 half-PPR points. It was the first three-score game for a tight end since Shane Zylstra in Week 16 of 2022. In fact, his fantasy game score was the best for a tight end since Darren Waller scored 38.5 in Week 13 of the 2020 season. In that game, Waller caught 13 of 17 targets for 200 yards and a pair of scores. The question Bowers’s optimistically-dubious managers want to know is whether his Week 9 performance was a fluke… or a future?
The Case Against:
Let’s dispense with the negativity right away. Bowers was a revelation last season, there’s no doubt about it. But with the regime and quarterback changes in the desert, it was fair to wonder how Bowers would adapt to learning a second offensive scheme in as many seasons in the league. After all, we’re only a year removed from Sam LaPorta following up his TE1 rookie season with an over-50-point drop-off the next season. LaPorta had been highly touted after that rookie season and was the TE2 by ADP. Tight end is a fickle position in fantasy, and history tells us Bowers shouldn’t be able to repeat his rookie year performance.
And he hasn’t. Through four games, his per-game target, reception, yardage, and fantasy scoring numbers were all down from his first-year stats. After finishing Week 1 as TE1 overall, he only mustered finishes of TE16, TE14, and TE19 in the following three games.
Bowers missed three games, and things did not improve in this passing game. On the season, Geno Smith has thrown 11 interceptions to match his touchdown total. He’s sitting middle-of-the-pack with a 67.2% completion percentage. But that drops to an abysmal 52.4 in the Red Zone- right when you need Smith the most. The Raiders rank 30th in the league in scoring, 25th in passing yards, and 26th in passer rating. They’re 29th in offensive plays per game. There’s not a lot to be optimistic about on the surface.
The Case For:
Ah, but there’s always another side to things. Bowers doesn’t seem to have many problems adjusting to Chip Kelly’s scheme. Kelly likes 12 personnel, and with Bowers and Michael Mayer, he has the complementary pieces to really succeed in that grouping. Yeah, Kelly could only muster a TE9 season out of Zach Ertz for a top result. But remember, Ertz and Brent Celek were in a timeshare that would’ve dominated the positional ranks if consolidated. Bowers commands a much greater percentage of the Raiders’ targets over Mayer when compared to Ertz and Celek. In his Week 9 return, Bowers saw over 35% of the targets compared to just under 19% for Mayer.
And things haven’t improved for the Raiders’ pass attack, but that may actually benefit Bowers in fantasy. Smith’s numbers are not great. But remember, he didn’t have arguably his top offensive weapon for almost a third of the games played. Smith seemed almost relieved to have Bowers back, as a deeper dive into Sunday’s game shows. Smith repeatedly went to Bowers in high-pressure, high-leverage situations. Bowers responded. Smith targeted Bowers on five of nine drop-backs facing second and seven or longer. Eight of Bowers’s 12 catches were for first downs or touchdowns.
Week 9 Fluke or Future Bottom Line:
Bowers was clearly always going to be a big part of the Raiders’ offense. But now, his role and importance to the team are going to be magnified. The Raiders’ trade of leading wide receiver Jakobi Meyers leaves a huge hole to fill. Meyers saw 235 targets in his first two years with Las Vegas. This year, his 49 targets led the team. He leaves behind an underwhelming receiver room. Default WR1 Tre Tucker is on pace for 91 targets, but his career high is only 81 last year. Tyler Lockett is familiar with Pete Carroll, but only signed last week. Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton are rookies drafted in the second and fourth rounds. And Alex Bachman made waves as the longest-tenured practice squad player. He’s seen six career targets. Clearly, there’s meat on the bone for Bowers.
On top of that, Bowers’s overall numbers are positive. He’s already on pace to best last season’s numbers, and that’s before the expected volume bump. He ranked only TE33 overall and TE36 on a points-per-game basis in the Red Zone in 2024. This season, he ranks eighth among tight ends in half-PPR points per game. He’s not just doing his damage between the 20s. His improved numbers and improved availability should only help Smith and the Raiders close to the goal line.
Verdict:
Bowers looked great in his return, and the usage metrics were all positive. Fantasy football is often more about a player’s situation and opportunities than his raw, physical talent. Bowers is loaded with talent, but the already-positive situation in Las Vegas may get even better with Meyers gone. The knee injury seems behind him with a low likelihood of reinjury. It’s not an earth-shattering take to say we can expect great things from Brock Bowers this season. But what I am telling you is you don’t have to worry. If you were nervous about your tight end situation, or thinking of trying to sell after his Week 9 performance, DON’T. Calm down; have some dip. You just got a taste of the player you drafted, with much more to come. Why bail now? The answer to the Week 9 Fluke or Future question is definitely FUTURE.