In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data becomes more prevalent as we have a larger sample size of games, but I still like to leverage it to eliminate the noise of early-season matchups sooner rather than later. This especially holds as we head towards the playoffs.
Here’s Week 11’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Jacksonville Jaguars are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Justin Herbert) while the Houston Texans are not (bad matchup for Cam Ward).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Sam Darnold, SEA
On the season, the Rams have been the 12th toughest matchup for opposing quarterbacks, but in the last three weeks, they’ve been a bit more porous, allowing an average of 16.6 points to the likes of Mac Jones, Tyler Shough, and Trevor Lawrence. With as tough as the Rams have been against the run, Seattle will likely have to rely on their passing attack in this NFC West showdown. Darnold should sneak his way into a Top 12 performance.
RB: TreVeyon Henderson, NE
In Week 10, we saw Treveyon Henderson rush for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns in a breakout performance against the Buccaneers. This week, he is matched up against a Jets defense that has allowed 24 fantasy points per game to running backs in the last three weeks, making them the 9th best matchup. Given the departure of Quinnen Williams and a favorable game script, it should be another big performance for HIMderson.
WR: Keon Coleman, BUF
Coleman just finished outside the Top 24 in Week 10, seeing 8 targets but only securing 3 of them for 46 yards and a touchdown. Coleman seems to be more involved in negative game scripts/shootout-style games. A matchup against the Buccaneers could be just what he needs to continue the momentum of his first quality start since Week 1. Tampa is allowing 38.3 points per game to WRs in the last 3 weeks, making him a solid flex option.
TE: Evan Engram, LV
Across the board, Kansas City has been a very tough matchup for teams in the last three weeks, but the one position that they have been more prone to giving up points to has been the tight end. In the last three weeks, they have allowed 14.7 points, making them a middle-of-the-road matchup. They have allowed touchdowns in 2 of the last 4 weeks, making Engram an enticing streaming option if you are in a pinch.
Fricks
QB: Jalen Hurts, PHI
You might think that on the surface, a matchup against the Detroit Lions would be just what the doctor ordered for Jalen Hurts. They play man-to-man over 40% of the time, the coverage Hurts excels against most. He averages 0.95 fantasy points per drop-back according to FantasyPointsData. However, in the last three weeks, the Lions have only allowed 16.2 fantasy points per game. In this time frame, QBs have averaged only 11 rushing yards against them. He will be a back-end QB1 this week.
RB: David Montgomery, DET
Philadelphia has been a tough matchup as of late for all positions, but especially so for running backs. In the last three weeks, they have only allowed 19.7 points per game to opposing running backs, making them the 11th toughest matchup in that span. On the season, they have been the 11th-best matchup, so it has been quite the turnaround. Running backs who have had moderate success against the Eagles have been involved in the pass game, which Montgomery is typically not, so you should be looking for other options this week.
WR: DK Metcalf, PIT
It has been feast or famine for DK Metcalf this season. Despite being the number one target in the Pittsburgh passing attack, he has scored less than 10 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games. As bad as the Bengals’ defense has been, they have been rather stout against WRs, only allowing 26.4 points per game in the last three weeks. This is mostly do to standout cornerback DJ Turner. I’d expect the ground game and the tight ends to be much more impactful in this matchup.
TE: Hunter Henry, NE
Hunter Henry’s hot start to the season seems to be a distant memory. He hasn’t had a Top 15 finish since Week 4. This week, he takes on the New York Jets, who have only allowed 11 points to the tight end position in the last three weeks. It’s getting to the point where you can likely drop him in the hopes that you can find other gems on the waiver wire. Do not start him this week, folks.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.