Welcome to the fourth edition of the Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report, where I take a look every Sunday morning at all things fantasy basketball. Nice to see you back again!
In this edition:
We’re starting to see which teams are good to monitor and avoid based on their tendencies, for both all-season and DFS purposes. I’ll share that information with you with some justification. We’re also starting to potentially see a trio of superteams emerge from the pack: Oklahoma City, Denver, and Houston. Taking players from superteams is a different beast than other squads, and I’ll give you some advice on how to play those to the greatest effect. Finally, news and notes and some stats that interest me.
All stats are current prior to games on November 15th unless otherwise mentioned.
NBA Schedules:
Two of the better teams in the NBA, the Rockets and Lakers, have just two games this week.
Teams with four games:
Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers, Toronto Raptors
Best 4-game schedules: Oklahoma City Thunder (Pelicans, Kings, Jazz, Blazers)
and Toronto Raptors (Hornets, 76ers, Wizards, Nets)
Teams with three games:
Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New York Knicks, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards
Best 3-game schedules: Boston Celtics (Nets twice, Magic), Minnesota Timberwolves (Mavericks, Wizards, Suns)
Teams with two games:
Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers.
Best players to drop for short week: Tari Eason, Steven Adams, Rui Hachimura, Jake LaRavia, Marcus Smart. All five of these guys have been rosterable, but none are must-holds.
Would not drop: Jabari Smith, Jr., Reed Sheppard.
Drop List
Here’s a quick drop list for players who are at least 15% owned on Yahoo, in order of their percentage owned.
Out for the season: Walker Kessler (60% rostered), Bradley Beal (56%)
The rest:
SF Devin Vassell (87%, fifth or sixth option)
SG Christian Braun (79%, FG% hard to repeat)
SF Cameron Johnson (69%, hope low)
SF Jonathan Kuminga (40%, stats down before the injury)
SF Jerami Grant (40%, Shaedon Sharpe is ascending)
SG Cason Wallace (29%, nice while it lasted)
PG Malik Monk (28%, OK in High Score formats)
PF Bobby Portis (26%, totally irrelevant)
SF Nikola Jovic (19%, four games in double digits)
SF Bilal Coulibaly (18%, more competition than anticipated)
PG TJ McConnell (16%, maybe every Pacer except Pascal Siakam)
Check to see if available (percent available):
Shaedon Sharpe (7% available), Jakob Poetl (11%), Jalen Suggs (16%), Josh Hart (25%), Grayson Allen (57%), Quentin Grimes (59%), Jaden Ivey (69%), Andre Drummond (79%), Daniel Gafford (81%)
Evaluating Teams To Monitor
Every year, some NBA teams emerge from the pack as “good fantasy franchises.” As I mentioned in an offseason piece, it often boils down to two advanced statistics:
Offensive Rating (OR): the ratio of a team’s points per 100 possessions. This is not what we call a “sticky” statistic, which means it varies from year to year more than other statistics.
Pace Factor (PaF): an estimate of how many possessions a team has in a game. This often is sticky – coaches usually set the pace.
Each of those two statistics is are fantasy booster. A high Offensive Rating means the ball is going into the basket, and a high Pace Factor means there are more chances for that to happen. We also like to look at Defensive Rating (DR), which is points allowed per 100 possessions, for teams that are not great to start your players against. Sometimes we have to look at other factors contributing, however.
Fantasy Teams To Monitor
Miami Heat: Miami has been running hard this year, leading the NBA in PaF and a mediocre 13th in OR. This has been amazing for players like Norman Powell, Jaime Jaquez, Jr., and Andrew Wiggins. It has also helped Kel’el Ware‘s rebounding totals. It’s also how a guy like Simone Fontecchio is posting 11 PPG in 19 minutes – he’d be a guy to watch if one of the main wings went down.
Portland Trail Blazers: Portland profiles almost the same as Miami, using advanced stats; they are 2nd in PaF and 15th in OR. Deni Avdija has been basically as advertised. Jrue Holiday‘s 8 APG is a direct result and a catalyst of the pace. Toumani Camara‘s scoring average is UP despite shooting far worse than last year. And we may be watching the Shaedon Sharpe breakout, finally.
Washington Wizards: The Wiz are absolutely horrible this year, but they are terrible at high speed, 3rd in PaF, and 9th in field goals attempted. Anyone getting time on this team will post counting numbers. Just don’t expect them to shoot well, except maybe Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George. Sarr is this year’s early fantasy MIP. The Wiz are also great to start players against, but I’m sure I didn’t have to tell you that.
Downgrade These Teams
Boston Celtics: In the preseason, I listed Boston as a Pace Factor wild card. I thought that with their diminished team size, they would pick up the pace. However, they are currently last in the NBA in that category after finishing 29th last season. You should probably avoid trading for the Celtics and avoid Boston games in DFS, at least until Jayson Tatum is back. They are still 100% based on efficiency, not pace. Plus, their defensive rating is 7th in the NBA. Big fantasy woof.
LA Clippers: The Clippers are, as predicted, second-to-last in PaF. They’re also 22nd in Offensive Rating and have been every bit as underwhelming as their 4-8 record this season suggests. The only people who should be happy with the Clippers are Ivica Zubac owners. You can probably start opposing players against them, as they are 23rd in Defensive Rating, but they’re probably better than this long-term. Finally, don’t trade for Kawhi Leonard, whose shutdown probability must have spiked by now.
Brooklyn Nets: The team is 24th in Offensive Rating and dead last in Defensive Rating, which means a lot of blowouts and starters not playing the fourth quarter. Worst of all: in a spectacular year for rookies, the Nets, who had five first-round picks, appear to have gone zero for five for early impact from those picks – imagine what Cedric Coward might be doing on a wide-open Nets team. But, they also have to give all five of those guys minutes. I’m not sure there’s anyone on this team worth owning other than Nic Claxton.
High Posted Notes
The Trey Murphy III breakout is here. New Orleans has become depleted to the point where Herbert Jones and Saddiq Bey combined for 30 shots in their last game against the Lakers. Murphy scored 35 points on 21 shots. Even when Jordan Poole returns, this is likely Murphy’s team now.
Kevin Durant is getting plenty of minutes and is leading the Rockets in points. But nearly all of his counting stats are down. With the Rockets playing superb ball, it might take an injury for KD to go Superman here. If you drafted him for stability, though, you’re getting what you paid for.
Nic Claxton is a good bet to keep up his top-60 fantasy ranking all year. The Nets are leaning on their highest-paid player, and he’s delivering. He’s been at least solid in every format.
CJ McCollum is finally hitting his shots. If you read the rest of this column, right now is the time to trade for him. Other than Sarr, McCollum should be the second-best fantasy player on the Wiz.
Speaking of buys, if you’re feeling lucky, deal for Brandon Ingram. Once he starts making his three-pointers, he could sneak into the top 40 players. Just don’t expect him to play 82.
How To Play Bench Players From Superteams
Imagine having a team with the NBA’s best player outscoring teams by thirteen points a game. You’re in first place, right? Nope – the 9-2 Denver Nuggets are a game and a half behind the Oklahoma City Thunder, who are outscoring their opponents by an outrageous fifteen and a half points per game after smashing the all-time NBA record in that statistic a year ago. The Houston Rockets are also on the short list here, outscoring their opponents by over twelve points a game. Nobody else is close to ten.
Because these teams are blowing out opponents, it creates two competing factors: you want players on these teams, but in blowouts, some of them will not play down the stretch. We love getting players playing big minutes in blowout fourth quarters because nobody is playing much defense.
Let’s see if we can mine the box scores for some early clues as to how these superb teams will handle blowouts. That should give us some clues for cheap daily fantasy plays and some sneaky mid-week fantasy league pickups.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Nobody does more in blowouts than…Isaiah Joe. In six games that the Thunder have won by at least nineteen points, Joe is averaging 18 points per game and more than 4 three-pointers. Alex Caruso also gets a lot of run in these games, but he is not fantasy relevant this season.
Nobody is more underutilized in these games than…Chet Holmgren. Holmgren missed two of the six games above. Other than his freakish 9-9 perfect shooting masterpiece against Golden State on Wednesday, he has scored an average of 11 points in the other four. In fact, he has played just 23 minutes per game on average in those games. Beware, Chet: the Thunder are going to blow out a lot of teams this year.
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have not played in that many blowouts despite their grand point differential; instead consistently beat teams by about a dozen. That’s something to learn off the top.
Nobody does more in blowouts than…Christian Braun. Braun has seen his numbers fall this season, but he is averaging over 16 points and shooting over 55% in the three games the Nuggets have won by at least 22 points, with good peripheral fantasy numbers.
Nobody is more underutilized in these games than…Aaron Gordon. Gordon is having a bit of a mini-breakout season. However, he averages five fewer minutes and four fewer points per game in these sorts of blowouts. Notably, Nikola Jokic‘s minutes get cut in these games, too, but he’s averaging a triple-double there just like everywhere else.
Houston Rockets
Nobody does more in blowouts than…Jabari Smith, Jr. and Reed Sheppard. If Sheppard is still available in your league, what are you waiting for? The Rockets tend to play their starters even in games with large margins, as well as Sheppard, their top reserve. This would indicate that the Rockets’ starters are the ones to target. None should be cheaper than Smith, who has over 20 points in two games and not less than 11 in any blowout.
Nobody is more underutilized in these games than…nobody. Other than the spare Tari Eason gem, there’s nothing to see here.
Drops In The Bucket
The Keyonte George breakout is still on, in part because they are letting him take all he can handle. His 15.3 shots per game are roughly double anyone else on the Utah Jazz besides Lauri Markkanen. His true shooting percentage is 125th in the NBA, propped up largely by his FT%. They might find later on they’re better served giving shots to someone else. Sell high.
Rudy Gobert has bounced back from some early-season questions. The bounceback coincided with the return of Anthony Edwards from a short-term injury. Hopefully you didn’t do anything rash: Gobert is as steady as they come.
The return of Zach Edey is going to help the Grizzlies tremendously. In his first game back, the second-year center had two steals and two blocks to go with thirteen points and seven boards. If you hold on, you are likely to be rewarded for your patience. Now, if they could just get Ja Morant back on track…
Kyle Kuzma has had some strong games lately while taking a career low in three-pointers. If he’s not shooting many treys, the bouncy Kuzma’s 53.7% shooting percentage is a real possibility. His steals + blocks are also up to 1.5, and he’s posting a career high in free-throw percentage. He looks like a good hold.
Along with the previously mentioned Trey Murphy III, Derik Queen is the other player you need to know in New Orleans right now, unless you need Jeremiah Fears‘ steals. Over the past week, Queen has averaged 15 points, 7 boards, 4.5 assists, and almost a block per game. With no true point guard on the Pelicans, Queen has been quietly running a lot of the offense. He definitely shouldn’t be on the wire in leagues of 12 or more.
Here’s a name you’re probably not hearing too many places: Vit Krejci. The Atlanta Hawks reserve guard has been on a historic tear, making 19 treys on 75% accuracy over the last four games. He is producing every time they give him minutes. It will probably take the Hawks trading Luke Kennard for him to be valuable, but he’s averaging 19 points.
Facts and Opinions
Top ten in “free throw rate” (FTr) for players with at least 300 minutes and at least 13 PPG so far:
Jimmy Butler, Paolo Banchero, Jalen Duren, Austin Reaves, Jerami Grant, Stephon Castle, Tre Jones, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Keyonte George, and Deni Avdija.
I eliminated all of the low scorers and noise in this category and learned a few things. Paolo Banchero is taking a beating in Orlando – maybe that’s why he always seems hurt. They’re daring Jalen Duren to prove he’s improved, and he’s still at 80% from the line. Stephon Castle is way underrated as a player. And Tre Jones won’t disappear when Coby White returns – he’s been too good.
Top ten in “Offensive Rebound Rate,” which measures how many available offensive boards a player gets, with at least 250 minutes:
Moussa Diabate, Donovan Clingan, Jalen Duren, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Mark Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Neemias Queta, Ivica Zubac, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Keldon Johnson.
This group has been mostly overachieving this year. Since he’s scoring less than nine points a game but getting 4+ offensive boards, Donovan Clingan‘s offensive game is obviously really raw. Duren and Giannis Antetokounmpo are on both lists, showing their versatility. And kudos to Mark Williams, who has not minded throwing his body around for the 8-5 Phoenix Suns. It’s a long march to March, though.
Signing Off
Thanks again for reading! I’ll be back again next Sunday, with news you can use.
