Welcome to the fifth edition of the Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report, where I take a look every Sunday at many things in fantasy basketball leagues. If this isn’t your first read, nice to see you back again. If this is the first time you’re signing in, thanks for giving me a try!
In this edition:
I’ll start with a drop list and a few potential adds.
Next, I’ll give you some things that I do when I look at players. My process, if you will. I find it helpful for identifying waiver wire players and how to plan your teams. Finally, some news and notes.
All stats are current prior to games on November 29th unless otherwise mentioned. Most recommendations are for 10-team leagues.
NBA Schedules
Teams with four games
Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Pistons, Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Orlando Magic, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards.
Best 4-game schedules
Houston Rockets (Utah, Sacramento, Phoenix, Dallas)
Brooklyn Nets (Charlotte, Chicago, Utah, New Orleans)
Cleveland Cavaliers (Indiana, Portland, San Antonio, Golden State
Denver Nuggets (Dallas, Indiana, Atlanta, Charlotte)
Teams with three games
Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs.
Best 3-game schedules
Memphis Grizzlies (San Antonio, Clippers, Portland)
Minnesota Timberwolves (New Orleans x 2, Clippers)
Oklahoma City Thunder (Golden State, Dallas, Utah)
Teams with two games: Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings.
Would not drop: Keegan Murray, DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, Devin Booker, Mark Williams.
Best players to drop to stream: Dillon Brooks, Collin Gillespie, Grayson Allen, Ryan Dunn, Malik Monk, Dennis Schroeder.
Gillespie, Brooks, and Allen have all stepped up big time in the absence of Jalen Green, but Green is expected back in mid-December. Besides, Phoenix plays Monday – so you’re only losing one game next week if you hold until then. (Tons of teams with 4 games too!)
You might notice the absence of Zach LaVine and Russell Westbrook on this list. Monk, Schroeder, LaVine, and Westbrook overlap, but right now, Schroeder is hurt, so I wouldn’t be excited right now to lose LaVine or Westbrook. If you must drop them, do.
Drop List
This list is for fantasy players who are at least 15% owned on Yahoo, in order of their percentage owned. Not all of these guys have to be immediately dropped, but you could drop any of them at any time.
Out for the season: Walker Kessler (still 56% rostered!), Bradley Beal (still 52%!)
The rest:
SF Cam Thomas (85%, empty scoring average, IR not necessary)
PF Draymond Green (83%, okay in some punt builds)
SG Anfernee Simons (80%, even his good games aren’t that good)
PF John Collins (77%, just can’t seem to get it together)
SG Christian Braun (72%, though IR spot OK)
SF Cameron Johnson (69%, lots of extra minutes, but he’s not a 62% three-point shooter)
PF Andrew Wiggins (53%, Reduced to a third or fourth option)
SF Jonathan Kuminga (32%, stats down before the injury)
PG Davion Mitchell (29%, just a specialist at this point)
SG Cason Wallace (27%, no longer roster-worthy)
PF Bobby Portis (26%, totally irrelevant)
PG Tre Jones (21%, now a backup)
Add List
Check to see if available (over 50% availability only):
Keegan Murray (53% available), Zach Edey (54%), PJ Washington (54%), Santi Aldama (55%), Jabari Smith, Jr. (55%), Reed Sheppard (60%), Jaden Ivey (67%), Noah Clowney (71%), Andre Drummond (71%), Saddiq Bey (72%), Moussa Diabate (74%)
Murray is a must-add if available. I would try to add Clowney at this point – the Nets appear happy to give him minutes – but I have doubts. See below.
My Process For Evaluating Players
When considering a fantasy player at any point in the season, it pays to have a process you like. Otherwise, sometimes in the middle of the season, you end up saying a sentence like this: “But they had him rated #40 in the draft!” I know, I’ve been there. We all have. Last week, I shared with you the knowledge that I believe third options on good teams are more productive than first options on bad ones. This week, I’ll give you my process for evaluating players.
That process is different for points leagues and categories leagues, with the exception of one thing: when drafting, I will always choose the safer player. Bad roster decisions are usually made because of inconsistency or injury panic. Make better decisions: have a safer roster.
My Category League Process
I ignore a player’s scoring average and shooting percentage.
Scoring and field goal percentage are usually inversely related. Other than the very best players in the NBA, the more someone shoots, the less likely it is that they will make the majority of them.
Amen Thompson is a great example of this idea. Thompson went from 11.3 shots per game after the All-Star Break last year to 14.4 this year. His shooting percentage has dropped from 56% to 47% this season. This is normal! It happens all the time.
Your waiver wire choices should help the categories you’re already winning. So if you drafted a team that shoots well, find a guy like Rui Hachimura, Goga Bitadze, Moussa Diabate, Neemias Queta, or Daniel Gafford. If your team is putting up points, guys like DeAndre Hunter, PJ Washington, Kyle Kuzma, or Ayo Dosunmu fit the bill nicely.
On the waiver wire, I focus first on defensive statistics.
Most of the time, if you have drafted a classic points/rebounds/assists high usage, high minutes team, that team is a little weak on defensive stats. There are exceptions, but you mostly know what I’m talking about. It’s often better to find your stocks on the waiver wire than to aggressively draft them.
Just like shooting percentage and scoring, defensive stats and minutes played are often inversely related. Stocks (steals + blocks) have a lot to do with energy; the fewer minutes, the greater the rate of stocks. A great example of that is the other Thompson, Ausar Thompson. His minutes have gone from 22 per game to 28 with virtually no change at all in stocks.
Players who get stocks are also often good at basketball in other ways, too, because they are heady players, and will find additional stats given additional court time. What’s even better about grabbing defense off the wire is that even if those players’ minutes go up, they still usually get defensive stats. Just a few extras can win a week. And you get whatever else they’re giving you in that time. Score! PJ Washington, Isaiah Stewart, Adem Bona, Neemias Queta, Peyton Watson, and Jay Huff are good examples. Occasionally, one or two of them break out like Dyson Daniels.
I always keep a streaming spot on my team.
This works best in a highly competitive league. When others are paying attention, you are far less likely to get burned by dropping your worst player, unless you have absolutely aced the draft with an A+. Good job then! You’ll still need the extra stats, so figure out who goes.
In a non-competitive league, you will probably be faced with difficult roster decisions. That’s probably a good thing: don’t agonize over it. In my least competitive league – a keeper league – my worst player is Cooper Flagg. Tough to stream there. It is often okay just to hold serve in those leagues, especially if others are not setting their lineups. However, if one of your sharp pickups starts to falter or loses playing time to a returning starter, use the spot for streaming.
My Points League Process
The first thing I consider every single time is the scoring format. Points league scoring varies. For example, I would use the same process I use on category leagues on ESPN points leagues, as they are modeled after a nine-category system. Play to the system you’re in on the wire.
I stream aggressively in daily formats.
There are only a few core players on any given points-scoring team, regardless of format. Most players simply don’t hold up to that kind of scrutiny. If you happen to catch a player in your format that consistently performs, expand your core, but most of the time, you’re just grabbing hold of the Flavor of the Week and racking up as many.
Even if they barely count stocks, I pay attention to stocks.
Yahoo counts stocks aggressively. CBS barely counts them at all. Aggressive defense is a sure sign that a player is going to rack up playing time. That’s how we knew that Reed Sheppard and Ajay Mitchell were going to get on the court this year. Similarly, we knew that Donovan Clingan might not get more blocks this year, but they were going to seriously ramp up his playing time. It’s how we knew that Ryan Rollins would be playable, though he’s been a star.
I target mid-level scorers.
A guy who scores 18-20 points a game will usually not have that many every game. Some games will be 12, and some will be 28. This is especially true if they get a lot of their points from the point range and from the free-throw line.
It’s why we consistently ranked Pascal Siakam in the top 20 preseason – we knew he’d draw fouls. It’s also the main reason for Keyonte George‘s surge this year offensively. And it’s why players like Jerami Grant and DeMar DeRozan are so useful in points leagues. Some games, they drain a lot of those shots, and some they brick. You should target those sorts of players aggressively.
High Post Notes
PF Keegan Murray, Sacramento Kings
Murray is a great pickup, but beware, too. Since coming off the IR, the power forward has averaged almost 40 minutes per game. He’s playing amazing ball, but no one can keep up this pace. If the Kings give Murray a human amount of playing time, he looks like a different player this year, but don’t aggressively target him in trade until you see his minutes come down.
PG Payton Pritchard, Boston Celtics
Over the past two weeks, excluding Saturday night, Pritchard has looked exactly like the player we thought he might be. He’s hit four three pointers per game, he’s been perfect from the line, and he’s even rebounding well. He’s quietly 35th in the NBA in minutes, too.
PG Collin Gillespie, Phoenix Suns
Gillespie is exactly the sort of player I was talking about earlier. He had been earning minutes due to his aggressive defense well before he became the Flavor of the Month. Over the last two weeks, he’s notching 18+ points per game with five assists, dead-eye shooting, and almost two steals per game. He’ll still end up riding pine when everyone is healthy, but the pending free agent has earned some future cash.
C Zach Edey, Memphis Grizzlies
Is Edey, not JJJ, the big to own in Memphis? He’s only 46% owned on Yahoo, even after averaging a double-double with two blocks, a steal, and 85% free-throw shooting on volume since returning from the IR. Edey should be owned in every format.
SF Cameron Johnson, Denver Nuggets
I made the point above that Cam Johnson was a bit of fool’s gold, but let me reiterate. Over the last two weeks, he has made 62.5% of his three-pointers – five out of eight. Since no one can do that long-term, there’s a crash coming. None of his other numbers are especially great, so buy at your own risk.
Drops in the Bucket
SG Dyson Daniels, Atlanta Hawks
A lot has been made of Jalen Johnson’s star turn. Less has been mentioned about Dyson Daniels turning into Draymond Green. Over the past two weeks, Daniels has averaged 12 points per game on 55% shooting with eight boards and seven assists, plus his signature 2+ steals.
PF Noah Clowney, Brooklyn Nets
Count me as skeptical that Clowney will maintain his outstanding defensive numbers. They are playing him an average of 37 minutes per game over his last four games. In addition to averaging 22 points per game, he has 2+ blocks in three of them and is averaging a steal per game over that stretch. Still, there wasn’t any indication he was that kind of player last year, or this year before his hot stretch. Maybe he’s discovered something, but since points and stocks are the only reasons to own him, don’t be shocked if you pick him up and his defensive production stops.
C Jay Huff, Indiana Pacers
Huff has blocked at least two shots in almost every game this season. They’ve given him playing time, and he is now also making three pointers – nine in his last four games. By this time next week, he will likely be leading the NBA in blocked shots. Huff is not great on the board, and he’s 28 years old, but as long as he’s getting playing time for the Pacers, he should be rostered.
SF LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
I couldn’t resist putting LeBron here, who is 158th by averages in 9-cat. That said, the talk that this is now Luka’s team appears to be true. With the team coasting to a 14-4 record, look for LeBron to get as much time off as his middle-aged body wants. He probably won’t return to his draft position all year long.
Signing off
Thanks again for reading. I’ll be back again next week, with news you can use.
