In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data is more prevalent now that we have a larger sample size of games. This especially holds as we head towards the playoffs.
Here’s Week 17’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the New York Jets are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Drake Maye) while the Minnesota Vikings are not (bad matchup for Jared Goff).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Kirk Cousins, ATL
Unc still got it? Falcons fans have been happier than Cousins receiving a wad of Kohl’s Cash after he turned back the clock, throwing five touchdowns in the last two games. Captain Kirk looks to continue this against the Los Angeles Rams, who have allowed 20 fantasy points per game to QBs in the last three weeks. Cousins has Superflex appeal against the 11th best matchup in the last three weeks (compared to their season long 21st best ranking).
RB: Breece Hall, NYJ
Breece Hall is a dynamic playmaker who has been hamstrung by the lack of talent around him in the putrid Jets offense. The volume has been there (14+ touches in each of the last eight games), but it hasn’t translated to fantasy results. I like his odds against the Patriots this week. On the season, the Patriots have been the 4th toughest matchup to RBs, but in the last three weeks, they have been the 5th best. If New York wants to have any chance, the game will have to run through Breece Lightning.
WR: Zay Flowers, BAL
This week it was announced that Zay Flowers was selected to his second consecutive Pro Bowl after a strong season where he posted over 1,000 yards. With the Ravens’ season on the line, they should look to lean on Flowers. Even if Tyler Huntley gets the start, the Packers should be a great matchup. Despite being a middling matchup on the season, they have been the 2nd best matchup to WRs in the past three weeks.
TE: Dallas Goedert, PHI
Dallas Goedert has been a hero in the fantasy playoffs as he’s averaged over 18 points per game since Week 15. You should keep the Jeep ridin’ this week against Buffalo despite the Bills being the toughest matchup to TEs on the season. They have been a more average matchup in the last three weeks, allowing 15.8 fantasy points per game to TEs. Goedert should remain in your lineups. Now is not the time to get cute!
Fricks
QB: Philip Rivers, IND
People in their mid-forties are typically looking at Couch to 5K, not Couch to QB programs. Rivers showed signs of life last week against San Francisco as he threw for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns. I’m sure having a week of practice did him some good, but I would not expect a repeat performance against the Jaguars. On the season, they have been the 13th best matchup for opposing QBs, but in the last three weeks, they have been the 5th toughest matchup. With the Jaguars looking to close out the division, I’d be looking for alternative QB2 options.
RB: Ashton Jeanty, LV
Jeanty popped off against Houston (of all teams) last week to the tune of 128 rushing yards, 60 receiving yards and two touchdowns. It’s been tough sledding for the 6th overall pick in his first year, and it seems like a stretch that he will be able to string together another big week against the New York Giants. You might be licking your chops seeing the Giants listed as the 2nd best matchup for RBs on the season, but in the last three weeks, they have been the 23rd best matchup while taking on the Dolphins, Commanders, and Patriots. At best, Jeanty is a Flex option.
WR: Jerry Jeudy, CLE
I don’t expect many people contemplating throwing Jeudy in their championship lineups, but if you are looking for a dart throw with high upside in your Flex spot, look elsewhere. You could see the Steelers ranked as the 5th best matchup on the season and lick your chops, but in the last three weeks, they have been the 3rd toughest matchup even after playing the Lions, Dolphins, and Ravens. Better luck next year, Jerry.
TE: AJ Barner, SEA
Barner fits into that mold of fantasy tight ends where if you can guess the week he’ll score a touchdown, he can be useful in your lineup. I would not bank on this being the week for him against the Panthers. In the last three weeks, they have only allowed 6.8 fantasy points per game to TEs, making them the 4th toughest matchup in that span. The Panthers have struggled defending WRs as of late, so I’m expecting big things from JSN and company.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.