In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data is more prevalent now that we have a larger sample size of games. This especially holds as we head towards the playoffs.
Here’s Week 18’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the New York Jets are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Josh Allen/Mitchell Trubisky) while the Minnesota Vikings are not (bad matchup for Jordan Love/Malik Willis).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: C.J. Stroud, HOU
Despite the Texans investing heavily into their offense in the 2025 draft, it has provided mixed results for C.J. Stroud from a fantasy perspective. Stroud will look to lock in his 4th Top 12 finish of the season against the New York Jets. On the season, they are a middling matchup, but in the last three weeks, they have been the 3rd best matchup for opposing quarterbacks. Given the number of QBs potentially in Week 18, Stroud could be a decent streaming option and will be a popular DFS pick.
RB: Kyle Monangai, CHI
You’ve heard of Elf on the Shelf, but have you heard of Monangai on a Fungi? The 7th round rookie has been the perfect compliment to D’Andre Swift, racking up 769 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season. Ben Johnson stated that the Bears are “playing to win this week,” so it won’t be the bellcow role that you might had hoped for, but the Bears would be wise to lighten Swift’s load as he has had a nagging groin injury for multiple weeks. The Bears take on the Lions, who won’t have much to play for and have been atrocious as of late against the run. In the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 42.4 points to RBs making them the best matchup on the week.
WR: Courtland Sutton, DEN
Has Courtland Sutton had the quietest Top 10 WR campaign of all time? The WR10 on the year has had at least 10 targets in four straight games and 2 Top 10 performances in that span. Denver will be gunning for the number one seed in the AFC and will be likely be leaning on Sutton once again. It has been rumored that the Chargers could be resting starters this week, so this would further diminish their passing attack. In the last three weeks, they have allowed 41 points per game to WRs. This makes them the 4th best matchup on the week, which is much more enticing than their 23rd most favorable matchup on the season.
TE: Juwan Johnson, NO
The Saints may have been knocked out of playoff contention, but their game will hold a great deal of importance to the rest of the NFC South. This week, they play the Atlanta Falcons. On the season, the Falcons have been have been a brutal matchup for TEs. They have been the 3rd toughest matchup this year. However, in the last three weeks, they have been more middle of the road. You should continue to ride the Shough-Johnson connection through this final week!
Fricks
QB: Shedeur Sanders, CLE
Shedeur has expectedly had peaks and valleys throughout his shortened rookie campaign. He hasn’t had many plus matchups 7 starts, so it has limited his fantasy upside. In his best matchup, he delivered a QB2 performance against the Titans, scoring 34.5 points. On the surface, you might be thinking that he could be in for a similar day against the Bengals. On the season, they have been the 8th best matchup for QBs. However, in the last three weeks, they have been the 26th best matchup. Given his lack of receiving options and the tough matchup, you’re better off looking for other streaming options this week.
RB: Jaylen Warren, PIT
It is do or die this week for the Steelers. Win and they clinch the AFC North Division and a first round, home playoff game. The focal point of their offense has all season been their running game, led by Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell. The Ravens have been average at stopping the run on the season (14th most points allowed to RBs), but in the last three weeks, they have made it a point of emphasis. They have been the second toughest matchup for RBs in that span, only allowing 15.4 points per game. Add in the fact that Darnell Washington was placed on season ending IR after sustaining a broken wrist against the Browns, and it could be a tough day at the office for the Steelers RB duo.
WR: Xavier Worthy, KC
Worthy did his best Gabe Davis impression this season. After an electrifying playoff performance that had fantasy owners salivating at the thought of similar production for the 2025 season, Worthy has mostly disappointed. Despite being down to his third string quarterback, fantasy players might be enticed at the matchup against the Raiders, who have been the 9th best matchup to WRs on the season. However, in the last three weeks, they have been the 24th best matchup to opposing WRs. Cross your fingers, and hope for a better 2026.
TE: Cade Otton, TB
The Buccaneers will have all hands on deck as they look to repeat as NFC South Champions. Otton has been a bit of an afterthought as Evans and Godwin have returned to the lineup, but you might be enticed by the Panthers being the 15th best matchup for TEs on the season. However, in the last three weeks, Carolina has been the 5th toughest matchup for TEs. Otton will be highly touchdown dependent and unlikely to get one in Week 18.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.