Redraft managers want reliable year two breakouts in 2026. Some sophomores will surge while others slump. The latest Fantasy Forecast show with Bigz and Grindberg breaks down the top names to target or avoid. Here are the key takeaways: Tyler Shough looks headed for a slump due to poor supporting cast and touchdown inefficiency.
Colston Loveland sits on a clear sophomore surge path with full season snaps and Ben Johnson calling plays. Ashton Jeanty should deliver a sophomore surge thanks to offensive line upgrades and better scheme fit. RJ Harvey faces sophomore slump risk in a crowded Denver backfield.
Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden both carry strong sophomore surge potential at wide receiver. My Take. Sophomore surge players often deliver the biggest value in redraft leagues. Focus on talent plus improved situation while avoiding backs stuck in committees.
Sophomore Surge Candidates for 2026 Redraft Leagues
Tyler Shough: Likely Slump
Tyler Shough finished as QB26 in his rookie season. He completed 221 of 327 passes for 2384 yards with 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions across 11 games and 9 starts. His 67.6 percent completion rate ranked among the best for rookies. He added 45 rushes for 186 yards and 3 touchdowns. Shough earned Offensive Rookie of the Month honors late in the year with 1316 passing yards and 5 touchdowns in that stretch. His third down passer rating of 103.3 led the entire NFL. The Saints went 5 and 4 in his starts after a slow team start. Poor offensive line play limited big plays and deep shots.
Shough will play a full 16 or 17 games in 2026 which should increase raw volume. Additions like Travis Etienne help the run game but the offensive line stays a major concern. Alvin Kamara eats into passing game targets and the overall environment lacks ideal protection. In single quarterback leagues Shough projects only as a streamer with limited weekly upside. Managers should not expect a major leap forward without major roster upgrades. His touchdown to interception ratio and efficiency stay modest. Fantasy owners can draft him late for spot starts but must treat him cautiously in most formats.
Colston Loveland: Sophomore Surge
Colston Loveland earned the highest PFF grade of any rookie in 2025 at 85.3 overall and 83.3 in receiving. He posted 58 receptions for 713 yards and 6 touchdowns on 81 targets despite starting only 11 games. From week eight onward he ranked as a top 10 tight end. He dropped just one pass all season and led all rookie tight ends in yards after catch per reception at 5.8. His 1.97 yards per route run trailed only elite veterans. Late season chemistry with Caleb Williams produced multiple 80 plus yard games and consistent red zone looks.
Loveland enters 2026 with every chance for a sophomore surge. He should start all 17 games with increased trust and more snaps under Ben Johnson. DJ Moore has departed which opens targets in the middle of the field. The offense rolled late last season and Loveland looks poised to become a focal point. He warrants top four tight end consideration in redraft drafts although managers should avoid overpaying at peak hype. This sophomore surge profile offers weekly TE1 upside with spike weeks in favorable matchups. Smart managers target him as a difference maker at the position.
Ashton Jeanty: Sophomore Surge
Ashton Jeanty rushed for 975 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie while adding 346 receiving yards on 73 targets. He ranked among the league leaders in missed tackles forced at 68 and posted 4.8 yards after contact per attempt. His 42 percent share of team carries showed workload potential but poor yards before contact hurt efficiency. He forced defenders to miss at a high rate on nearly every run. Late season improvements in pass protection added trust from the coaching staff.Jeanty stands out as a prime sophomore surge candidate in 2026.
The Raiders added Kirk Cousins for veteran stability Tyler Linderbaum at center and improved the offensive line overall. Klint Kubiak brings a better run scheme than last year. These changes should create more room for Jeanty to operate and boost both his rushing and receiving production. Expect spikes in yards per carry and total touchdowns. Redraft managers can target him as a strong first round pick while dynasty owners cash in on last year’s 1.01. This sophomore surge sets up consistent RB1 weeks.
RJ Harvey: Likely Slump
RJ Harvey scored 12 touchdowns and led the Broncos in rushing as a rookie. He posted 842 rushing yards on 214 carries with 5.1 yards after contact per attempt. His goal line work increased late in the season with five of seven rushing touchdowns coming in the final six weeks. However his snap share stayed low at just 42 percent and efficiency numbers looked rough early. The committee approach limited explosive plays and big run opportunities.
Sean Payton prefers committee backfields and the Broncos brought back J.K. Dobbins which keeps the situation messy. Harvey rarely approached bell cow volume and the coaching staff shows no sign of handing him the full workload. Unless Dobbins suffers another injury Harvey projects as an overpriced RB3 in redraft at best. Managers should prefer Dobbins at a discount and treat Harvey as a risky flex option rather than a locked in starter. His usage pattern suggests another year of shared touches and modest efficiency.
Emeka Egbuka: Sophomore Surge
Emeka Egbuka delivered several huge games as a rookie including wide receiver one and four finishes early in the season. He earned 127 targets for 1098 yards and 7 touchdowns despite missing time with a lingering hammy injury. His first ten weeks produced four top five weekly finishes. Baker Mayfield targeted him heavily in the red zone where Egbuka caught five of his touchdowns. Mike Evans has now moved on which clears the top target role in Tampa Bay.
Egbuka enters 2026 with excellent sophomore surge potential. Baker Mayfield returns healthy and the Buccaneers shift younger with Jalen McMillan also rising. Egbuka should see 150 targets 1200 yards and double digit touchdowns in a favorable offense. He excels in the power slot and red zone. Redraft managers can draft him confidently as a wide receiver two with weekly upside. This sophomore surge sets up championship winning weeks with consistent volume and scoring opportunities.
Luther Burden: Sophomore Surge
Luther Burden operated as the clear third option behind Rome Odunze and DJ Moore as a rookie yet still showed big playability on limited touches. He posted 62 receptions for 784 yards and 5 touchdowns with 18.2 yards per catch on explosive plays. He flashed juice and big play ability every time the ball came his way in Chicago. His route running improved dramatically in the second half of the season.
Burden now steps into a tailor made sophomore surge role under Ben Johnson. With DJ Moore gone and a full year of chemistry with Caleb Williams Burden slides into the exact slot motion role that turned Amon Ra St Brown into a fantasy star. Expect manufactured touches pre snap motion and consistent targets. He projects as a wide receiver two with frequent wide receiver one spike weeks. Managers who buy early can secure massive value before his price climbs. This sophomore surge profile wins fantasy championships.
The 2026 season offers plenty of opportunity for smart managers who identify the right sophomore surge candidates early. Players like Loveland, Jeanty, Egbuka, and Burden bring the perfect mix of proven talent and upgraded situations that turn good rosters into champions. Avoid the traps and load up on the risers while the rest of your league chases last year’s hype.
Fantasy managers win with smart sophomore surge selections not last year’s hype. The FSAN Rookie Prospect Guide delivers deep actionable analysis to help you find real value before your league mates do.
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