We are breaking down each division team by team and identifying who the sleeper and who the bust are for every team. We pulled average draft position (ADP) from Fantasy Pros on July 13th and will only be looking at guys inside the top 200.
A sleeper is someone who will out-produce their current ADP and ranking
A bust is a player who won’t live up to their ADP and rankings.
Cincinnati Bengals
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Ja’Marr Chase– 1, WR1
Tee Higgins– 24, WR13
Chase Brown– 29, RB11
Joe Burrow– 44, QB5
Mike Gesicki– 172, TE22
Sleeper- Mike Gesicki
The Bengals had never been a team that focused on the tight end position, and who can blame them with the wide receivers they have? 2024 changed that, with Mike Gesicki seeing 83 targets. I’m not expecting that again for Gesicki this year. We know Tee Higgins will be back and fully healthy, so that will steal some of those targets.
Even if Gesicki gets 65 targets, that would have put him as the 22nd most last year. Given that Gesicki had nine red zone targets last year, I still like him to be productive on a lower target number. I’m not expecting him to finish as TE13 like he did in 2024, but he should be above TE22. Erick All is out for the year, who had 22 targets in his nine games last year. A sign that Gesicki might not experience as significant a drop in volume.
Bust- Chase Brown
Chase Brown seemingly came out of nowhere last year to finish as the RB10. This year, he is being drafted at that price. The issue I have this year with Brown is the potential lack of volume. First, the Bengals will have everyone healthy. Browns highest carry total in a game last year was in Week 9, when Tee Higgins was out. In the three games Higgins missed, Brown had 52 carries. 52 of his 229 total.
Then we can’t ignore that running backs Zach Moss and rookie Tahj Brooks are on the team. Last year, Moss missed a chunk of time. In the early season, when both were healthy (Weeks 1-8), Moss saw 74 carries to Browns 78. So, the Bengals appeared to be adopting a running back by committee approach. If Browns overall carries drop, he won’t have the production. 229 total carries isn’t a massive number to begin with, so there isn’t much to trim. Of Browns’ 64 targets, 20 came in the weeks Higgins was out. Taking away receiving work will hurt. Buying a guy at what could be a career year seems like a losing proposition.
Cleveland Browns
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Jerry Jeudy– 63, WR34
Quinshon Judkins– 73, RB25
David Njoku– 114, TE9
Cedrick Tillman– 145, WR61
Dylan Sampson– 177, RB55
Jerome Ford– 189, RB60
Sleeper- Jerome Ford
Even before the Quinshon Judkins news came out, I was buying all the Jerome Ford. While I’m out on him as a dynasty option as a 2025 option, he is a steal at RB60. Even with the jump that ADP will take now, he is still a value. While he only had 104 carries last season, Ford was very efficient. He averaged 5.43 yards per carry last season. Even with a low carry count and only three touchdowns, he finished as RB33.
With Judkins probably out for a good chunk of games and Dylan Sampson learning the system and getting up to NFL speed, I expect Ford to be the main back. On a team with potentially Joe Flacco or Kenny Pickett starting. The running game will be a necessity.
Bust- David Njoku
It only took six years for David Njoku to be a consistently good fantasy tight end. It has come while the Browns have had a cast of misfit quarterbacks. Many are banking on the high target volume for Njoku to repeat as a top 12 tight end for fantasy this year. He’s currently being drafted between his past years of finish, and that seems either at or slightly higher than I expect him to finish.
First, the quarterback is an issue. If it is Joe Flacco we saw in 2023, what does that connection look like? That was before Jeudy came to town, but there was still a capable Amari Cooper. If it’s Kenny Pickett or one of the rookies, then I question how involved Njoku will be. We are all expecting Cedrick Tillman to have a good year. I think Njoku will regress down from his 97 targets in 2024 through 11 games and 123 targets in 2023, close to his 2022 numbers of 80 targets. Still a great number, and Njoku finished as TE10 that year. Maybe not a traditional bust, but not much upside being drafted as TE9.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
D.K. Metcalf– 45, WR22
Kaleb Johnson– 74, RB26
Jaylen Warren– 94, RB31
Jonnu Smith– 133, TE12
Aaron Rodgers– 170, QB28
Pat Freiermuth– 185, TE25
Calvin Austin– 207, WR81
Sleeper- Calvin Austin
With George Pickens now in Dallas, it opens the door for someone to step up into the wide receiver two role. Both on the team and in targets. Last season, the Steelers threw the ball 529 times. While they were bottom five in total attempts, that still opens a ton of targets. That number should also go up with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Austin only had 58 targets last year, but he only played over 50% of the team’s snaps in nine games. His opportunity should rise this year. Even with his low snap percentage and volume, he finished as WR69. You are already getting value drafting him at WR81. He’s a young receiver with plenty of upside.
Bust- Jonnu Smith
I fully believe- Once is a fluke, twice is a trend, three times is a trend. This is so important to remember with Jonnu Smith. 2024 was a fluke. It would have been great if you had him, but we have seven other years of him being nothing more than a bad rotational fantasy tight end. Drafting him as the tight end 12 will end poorly.
Let’s not forget that Pat Freiermuth is still there. He finished higher the Smith did last year. Even with the lackluster wide receiver options, there aren’t enough targets for both Smith and Freiermuth to get close to 70 each. Compound that with Arthur Smith not using one tight end, and you have a recipe for failure to return on the TE12 investment.
Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Derrick Henry– 14, RB6
Lamar Jackson– 26, QB1
Zay Flowers– 54, WR28
Mark Andrews– 104, TE7
Rashod Bateman– 125, WR55
Isaiah Likely– 150, TE70
Justice Hill– 180, RB56
DeAndre Hopkins– 192, WR76
Sleeper- DeAndre Hopkins
Let’s start this off with the fact that the Baltimore Ravens threw the ball only 477 times last year. The only team to throw fewer was the Philadelphia Eagles. So there aren’t a ton of targets to go around. Because they have such a great running game, they don’t need to throw. When they do, they have struggled to find solid options. We have Zay Flowers, who is a talented young player, and tight end Mark Andrews, but it’s been a mess of options. Now they bring in veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins.
While Hopkins isn’t what he used to be, he is still a very talented wide receiver. Last year in Kansas City, he failed to find the groove and had his worst season of his career. Even at age 33, Hopkins finished as WR48. He is currently being drafted as WR76 at the end of drafts. With how bad the second wide receiver has been in the past, Hopkins will be a steal.
Bust- Zay Flowers
I wanted to put Rashod Bateman here since I think he falls behind Hopkins in the pecking order, but I’m more worried about Zay Flowers. We know the team doesn’t throw much, and they added a weapon in Hopkins, and we could finally see the emergence of Isaiah Likely as a legit weapon.
Flowers finished last year with 116 targets. He ended up as WR25. He only had five touchdowns, which makes him a worrisome fantasy option. When you combine that with the fact that Flowers only had 108 targets the year before, it’s a trend of low volume on a low volume passing offense. Drafting Flowers, where he finished last year, would lean towards believing in an increase in targets or at least the status quo. There are plenty of red flags pointing to a slight decrease in volume.