We are breaking down each division team by team and identifying who the sleeper and who the bust are for every team. We pulled average draft position (ADP) from Fantasy Pros on July 13th and will only be looking at guys inside the top 200.
A sleeper is someone who will out-produce their current ADP and ranking
A bust is a player who won’t live up to their ADP and rankings.
Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor– 20, RB8
Josh Downs– 85, WR43
Michael Pittman– 101, WR50
Tyler Warren– 121, TE10
Alec Pierce– 183, WR74
Daniel Jones– 184, QB29
Anthony Richardson– 191, QB30
Sleeper: Michael Pittman
I find it completely crazy that Michael Pittman is not only being drafted as WR50 but also being drafted behind Josh Downs. Are we just taking 2024 as fact and forgetting the previous three seasons? Michael Pittman isn’t a gadget player. He is an every-down alpha receiver on the Indianapolis Colts.
One of the issues last season for Pittman was the revolving door at quarterback. At the same time, that may end up being the case this year, again, it’s slightly better with Daniel Jones replacing Joe Flacco. Even if it is a repeat of last season, Pittman finished as WR41. I can’t imagine a world where he sees fewer targets without missing time.
Bust: Tyler Warren
We might have been spoiled the past few years with Sam LaPorta and Brock Bowers being fantasy stars in their rookie years. I don’t see that being the case for Tyler Warren. With the Colts possibly rotating quarterbacks, it will make it hard for a rookie to get comfortable and be fantasy productive.
Let’s face the fact that the Colts’ offense does not focus on the tight end. Last year combined the tight end position saw 75 targets combined between four players. The top only sees 31. You can go back to 2023, where Kylen Granson led the position with 50 targets. I don’t see enough volume for Warren to bring value at being drafted as TE10.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas Jr– 13, WR8
Travis Hunter– 64, WR35
Travis Etienne– 99, RB32
Trevor Lawrence– 123, QB20
Bhayshul Tuten– 140, RB44
Tank Bigsby– 149, RB48
Brenton Strange– 169, TE21
Dyami Brown– 196, WR78
Sleeper: Trevor Lawrence
I will start by saying that I have never been a believer in Trevor Lawrence. Not that I think he is bad, but that he is just mid. He will live in the QB12-QB17 range and probably in the lower end of that range. He might have a year or two where he gets the upper end or even slightly beats that. This is the year for that to happen. QB20 seems like a discount on him.
The Jaguars put everything they have into TLaw. They brought in Liam Coen to change the direction as head coach. They drafted Travis Hunter to go alongside last year’s rookie breakout, Brian Thomas. Before the draft, they brought in four offensive linemen in free agency. They are betting it all on Lawrence. If ever a year for him to be at the upper end of his range of outcomes, this is it. Getting him below that range is crazy good value.
Bust: Tank Bigsby
It’s hard to predict what the Jaguars’ running game is going to look like. Could Tank Bigsby be the main guy? It’s certainly possible, but the team drafted Bhayshul Tuten very early in the 4th round and still has Travis Ettienne. Considering they are being drafted within 50 picks of each other and only 16 positional spots, one will certainly be a bust. I’m picking Bigsby.
While Bigsby had a good year last season, finishing as RB36, I don’t think he repeats. He isn’t used in the passing game. Bigsby only saw 12 targets last year. He finished the year with 168 carries, but 44 of those came in the two games Etienne missed, and another 15 came in the games that bookended that injury. After Etienne came back, Bigsby only out-carried him three times over nine games. Tuten is a solid player who can take either back’s role, but his low frame would make him more of a threat to Bigsby at the goal line, where he saw a ton of work.
Houston Texans
Nico Collins– 12, WR7
Joe Mixon– 55, RB19
C.J. Stroud– 118, QB18
Jayden Higgins– 122, WR54
Christian Kirk– 127, WR56
Nick Chubb– 181, WR57
Jaylin Noel– 193, WR77
Dalton Schultz– 202, TE28
Sleeper: Christian Kirk
Everyone is sleeping on Christian Kirk. Typical rookie hype has everyone buying Jayden Higgins five spots higher. Kirk is in the perfect spot to have a bounce-back season after an injury-shortened 2024 in Jacksonville.
Kirk will line up primarily in the slot. While that does mean he is possibly not on the field in two wide sets, it is a place where the Texans have proven success. Tank Dell shone in that role. Kirk has also shone in that role, including 2022, where he finished as WR11 on the year. The play of Nico Collins on the outside will help open space. Kirk is a smash steal as WR56. Even in a down 2023 season with only 12 games, she finished as WR47. His rookie season and last year with only eight games are the only times he has finished under WR57.
Bust: Joe Mixon
I had Joe Mixon down as a bust even before the news about his foot injury. His ADP has probably tanked since then. It was never a good sign when a team goes out and signs a back like Nick Chubb and drafts a guy in the 4th round.
The foot injury especially scares me because we haven’t gotten clarification on what it is. If they came out and said ankle sprain, we know the timeline. We could be looking at something like Christian McCaffery last year, where a lingering issue has this stop/start type feel to Mixon’s season. Mixon finished as RB17 last year on the back of 245 carries and 11 touchdowns. If his numbers dip both in volume and efficiency, we could be looking at a real stinker in terms of value for where you are drafting him.
Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley– 61, WR32
Tony Pollard– 79, RB28
Tyjae Spears– 126, RB40
Cam Ward– 152, QB26
Chig Okonkwo– 182, TE24
Sleeper: Tony Pollard
Tony Pollard continues to be undervalued every season. With everyone buying into Tyjae Spears’ hype, it has pushed Pollard so far down the ADP list that he is a must-have sleeper. What’s funny is, as much as people talk about Spears, the ADP cost isn’t there.
Pollard will be a needed weapon for this Titans offense. With Cam Ward learning the NFL, they will rely on Pollard. It’s what they did last year. Pollard had 260 carries. He was a high-volume back. He had the 8th most carries in the league. The you add on 57 targets and you get a top-end volume for lower third prices. Yes, Pollard wasn’t great for fantasy last year with only five rushing touchdowns, but the offense as a whole was a stinker. This year should be better, and so should Pollard’s return.
Bust: Calvin Ridley
I like Calvin Ridley, and I think WR32 is about where he will finish. I think there is more of a probability he finishes way below it than way above it. Ridley is now 30 years old, and it’s been four years since we have seen a great performance. Sure, in 2023 he finished as WR18, but still a far cry from 2020, where he was WR5.
The Titans have a new quarterback in Cam Ward. Rookies usually don’t put up monster numbers. Ridley had 120 targets last season, and I doubt that number increases a ton. Yes, hopefully drives will be continued, which provides more opportunity, but with the addition of Tyler Lockett along with some exciting rookies, we could see a situation where the targets are so distributed that no one is fantasy good.