ESPN, Yahoo, and CBS are still the kings of fantasy basketball. While each defaults to a head-to-head, points league format, different sites have different default scoring systems. The first article is on ESPN, and the second is on Yahoo and CBS, as those two sites have more in common than they have differences. I will base this article on Average Draft Position (ADP), which tells us where a player is likely to be drafted.
ADP is an unstable way to predict player performance, but it is important to know where you might take a player in a draft to be able to plan. Remember that wherever you’re drafting, ADP is usually guided by the rankings on that site and their default draft system. I’ll explain ESPN’s format first, then give you some bargains and busts based on that.
Notably, if you are wondering where you might find points league ADP on ESPN, it is not listed just yet, and may not be at all. I mock-drafted eleven times this weekend to gather information for this article.
ESPN Points Format
I highlighted ESPN first because it might be the most useful ADP comparison for your “home leagues.” That is because ESPN’s scoring system highlights a holistic viewpoint of player performance more than the other two sites. If you’re a long-time category player who wants to try a points league format, this is for you. It’s a challenging, competitive system where you have to set lineups daily.
Below is ESPN’s scoring system.
Point = 1 3 pointer made = 1
Field goal attempted = -1 Field goal made = 2
Free throw attempted = -1 Free throw made = 1
Rebound = 1 Assist = 2
Steal = 4 Block = 4
Turnover = -2
This is a balanced format between categories, which more closely resembles a category league than most points formats.
Because ESPN’s game is a daily game where you win with total points for the week, player availability matters more. A player doesn’t play back-to-backs? Ding that guy in ESPN’s format. You draft a superstar in the third round that might play 45 games? On Yahoo, that might be a bargain. On ESPN, it’s likely a stone-cold bust
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Bargains on ESPN by ADP:
PF/C Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings (Rank 9, ADP 11.0)
What I love about Sabonis in a points league format is that his primary statistics are incredibly consistent. The NBA’s rebounding leader gives you stats every night, usually more than 70 times a year. I’d draft him ahead of Anthony Davis for sure. I’d also be happy to take him ahead of Cade Cunningham in ESPN’s points format, especially now that he’s making the odd three-pointer. He’s still way behind the top five, but I’d feel very comfortable with Cade, Anthony Edwards, or Sabonis at #6. And I like taking Sabonis because productive guards are easier to find in points formats.
SF/PF Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic (Rank 34, ADP 28.4)
Banchero already gets a bit of love from live drafters. Not enough in my book, because Banchero posted superstar numbers before getting injured last year. He garnered almost 30 points per game (PPG) and 9 rebounds (RPG), and his field goal percentage (FG%) had finally crept up close to 50%. He improved across the board in a lot of places last year. I have been ranking him near the end of the first round in points leagues formats. If he stays healthy, he could be a two-round bargain at his ADP.
PG/SG Derrick White, Boston Celtics (Rank 47, ADP 47.7)
White is not a potential first-rounder like Banchero, and he’s better in a category format. However, I love White in ESPN’s points format, where defense and turnovers matter. White is a great source of threes, blocks, and steals, and turns the ball over less than most high-volume guards.
I also expect a bump in PPG from White this year. There’s a lot of scoring space in Boston, and I expect the team to play a lot faster this year. He may get more rebounds, too, since the Celtics’ big men are uninspiring. I like White to return third or fourth-round value at a fifth-round price this year.
Quick Hitter Bargains By ADP:
SF/F/C Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder (Rank 16, ADP 19.5)
I love that J-Dub, who is a fantasy superstar already, qualifies at small forward, power forward, and center. That’s the versatility that makes the rest of your draft easy. He’s good up to around pick #12 or 13, I think.
SF/PF Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (Rank 63, ADP 74.6)
If you’ve read anything by me this offseason, Avdija comes up somewhere. I really don’t know who’s scoring on Portland other than Deni and Shaedon Sharpe. Sharpe, at rank 93, is also a good pick. Avdija is consistent, available, and productive. He also averaged just 30 minutes per game last year, so he could see a rise in every statistical category this year.
PF Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves (Rank 75, ADP 77.6)
A good hint on ADP bargains is often whether their ADP actually matches or exceeds their rank. Randle’s is close. Randle is better at starker point formats, but he also fills up the box score with regularity. He’s a very safe pick in the middle rounds. Randle also qualifies at both PF and C, hard positions to fill well at this spot.
SF Cam Whitmore, Washington Wizards (Rank 126, ADP 136.2)
Whitmore’s arrow is pointing up with starter Bilal Coulibaly‘s injury. Whitmore has a chance to grab the starting job and run with it if he gets anything like his per-36-minute starter projections of 24 PPG and 7 RPG. He’s a huge draft find if he hits, and replaceable if he fails.
Other potential bargain players over rank 120:
Scoot Henderson, Kyle Kuzma, D’Andre Hunter, Chris Boucher
Busts on ESPN by ADP:
Anthony Davis, Ja Morant, Zion Williamson, LaMelo Ball, Joel Embiid, Walker Kessler, Mark Williams
This is a list of players who have notoriously missed time recently. As prognosticators, we have to weigh the possibility that they stay healthy vs. their missed time. In ESPN’s points format, you want players to be active because you set daily lineups. These players are much less likely to be active than other players, which is why they are potential busts on ESPN.
If you have ever wondered how this happens, here’s how. It helps to think of the rankings for these players as averages. Davis might be a top-three pick if he stayed healthy. In my opinion, he’ll probably finish more like a second-round pick. His rank of #7 calculates to almost a straight average.
If LaMelo Ball (rank 35) played 65 games, that’s worth a second-round pick at least. If he played 25 games, he would finish below rank 100. There’s a bigger weight for players who might finish near the top, which is why Ball ranks at 35 instead of 50ish.
The lesson from this: if you draft these players at ADP, you’re taking the average of their best-case scenario and their worst-case scenario. The dirty secret is that the best-case scenario is also fictional. It’s like hitting a twelve-game parlay. Everyone knows someone who’s done that, but somehow that person is never you. You’re lucky to get back the draft capital on them. Don’t draft these guys at ADP if your league does daily lineups. If they slip, sure, take a big swing.
C Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers (Rank 14, ADP 25.4)
If you see an ADP much lower than a player’s rank, that’s a tip-off that he’s a crowdsourced bust. Zubac had a nice year last year, but I believe Zubac is too highly rated at #14. I also think his 25 ADP is too high. Because of player scarcity on the Clippers last year, Zubac played the 13th-most minutes in the NBA last year. This led to his stats ballooning and a top 20 finish.
The center has a little too much help this year and should fall back to the middle-round player he’s always been. I have dropped him further than this. I rank him in the 80s, which is where he was usually drafted last year, because I think he has very good help. I have no idea how far he falls from last year’s perch, but top-30 rankings for Zubac seem very rich.
SF/PF Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks (Rank 39, ADP 32.8)
This is another example of “averages.” Flagg’s ceiling is outrageous. There is a small chance the rookie finishes in the top 20 overall, like Blake Griffin. I have trouble believing he will get more than the 19 PPG ESPN projects. His ranking surge would come from the minutes above, plus bigger defensive stats and higher than expected assists and rebounds. That is a good look into his future, and he’s a very likely superstar.
But even the best rookies usually need time to adjust to the NBA. ESPN projects Flagg will play 75 games at 33.2 minutes per game, and that’s a bold statement. Cade Cunningham did come close to those figures, but most rookies do not. They also claim that Flagg may turn the ball over just 2.8 times a game, light for a high-usage rookie.
Flagg might do everything they say he’s going to do, but I expect him to struggle with efficiency and shot selection. Take him off the board at close to #50 overall, but let someone else take this risk at ADP.
C Onyeka Okongwu, Atlanta Hawks (Rank 69, ADP 93.4)
Like Zubac, there’s too much competition here. Okongwu’s biggest damage came during the second half of the year, amidst Atlanta injuries. All of those players are now healthy, and the team has added depth to its frontcourt.
Before the All-Star Break, Okongwu averaged 25 minutes per game. The center has also played fewer than 60 games in three of the five seasons. I would bet that Okongwu is still productive, but top 70 productive seems way too high.
Quick Hitter Busts at ADP:
SG/SF Desmond Bane, Orlando Magic (Rank 37, ADP 42.4)
ESPN projects that Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Bane will combine for 71 PPG, with each scoring more than 20 PPG. But Orlando plays the slowest pace in the NBA, and scored just 105 PPG last year. If these three players combine for nearly 70% of Orlando’s scoring, is anyone else going to score? Yes, and that’s why I think this is absurd. I think Bane gets the short end of this stick.
PG Kevin Porter, Jr., Milwaukee Bucks (Rank 67, ADP 86.7)
Ever hear of someone so underrated he became overrated? This would have been a pretty good rank for Porter in his Rockets days, but they are ranking Porter at his ceiling. Porter was named the starter in Milwaukee, but that hardly means he plays 30+ minutes a game. Milwaukee may use a rotation of players at point guard. I like him much more at his ADP.
PF/C Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards (Rank 77, ADP 99.4)
This is another one of those ratings that looks really good if Sarr breaks out. If Sarr starts making shots, he vaults into the top 50. In my opinion, Sarr scores better in category formats than points formats, especially in punt builds.
Coming next
Want to be able to set your lineup once a week and forget it, or don’t like worrying about turnovers and missed shots? CBS and Yahoo are probably better for you; check out my next article in a couple of days.
