C.J. Stroud came into the NFL and fantasy football with a bang. In 2023, he put up near historic numbers, and the player to have. He was pushing players like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson as the dynasty QB1. Now entering 2024, his third season, there are reasons to be worried about Stroud. Is he the superstar we expected to be, or will he just be a middling quarterback who doesn’t live up to the rookie hype?
I believe that dynasty managers should be more worried than optimistic. There are signs that he could bounce back, but there are also plenty of reasons to be concerned. Perhaps selling Stroud this season will benefit you before the rest of the world catches up and his value dips further. This isn’t to say the Stroud is bad, but just not a top 10 fantasy quarterback.
We have seen something similar in Trevor Lawrence, who came in with the hype of “generational talent” yet still hasn’t lived up to it. Despite coaching changes and new weapons, we are all still waiting for Lawrence to be that constant star. It was not long ago that dynasty managers were still buying Lawrence at a premium because of the upside, then by the middle of the 2023 season, the sentiment changed, and the “bust” talk started to become more popular. Lawrence was QB8 to start 2023 and is now QB16. Stroud may be headed down the same path. Currently, C.J. Stroud is QB8.
Is There Upside?
Rushing
C.J. Stroud is not known for his rushing. In his first two NFL seasons, he has only averaged 2.8 carries a game. In college, he wasn’t much better at 2.9 yards. He only has three rushing touchdowns which all came in his rookie season.
Lacking that, rushing upside instantly limits Stroud’s fantasy upside. For quarterbacks to get to the top 12, they either need a solid rushing floor or throw a high number of touchdowns. Stroud did get into the top 12 in his rookie season despite a low rushing total, but the three rushing touchdowns helped him reach QB11. Having zero in 2024 hurt him.
2023 was also the year the Texans relied on Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary to be their main rushers. 2024 brought in Joe Mixon, who was a massive upgrade. Mixon is under contract for the next two years. The Texans drafted Woody Marks, who many are high on and believe he can be the future. Having a solid back does not hurt a mobile quarterback, but it certainly seems to hinder the rushing attempts of a more pocket passer like Stroud. The league is also now flush with rushing quarterbacks. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Jayden Daniels are all locks when healthy as top 10 guys due to their rushing. Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, and Kyler Murray all could get to the top five rushing numbers in any given season. If Cam Ward and Anthony Richardson pan out as passers, their rushing upside makes them enticing. The room at the top for a non-runner is so small.
Touchdown Totals
The other way a quarterback can get into the top 10 is by throwing 30 or more touchdowns. It’s what Joe Burrow and Jared Goff did when they were able to reach that benchmark. To be a top 5 quarterback, Stroud would need to throw 35 if he doesn’t all of a sudden start running the ball more.
So far in his career, Stroud has thrown 23 and 20 touchdowns in his first two seasons. Even if Stroud had played all 17 games in his rookie campaign, he would have totaled 26. The question is, can his total passing touchdowns jump up a level?
We can blame the lower passing touchdowns in 2024 on the number of injuries to the wide receiver position. Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and Nico Collins all missed significant time. Now Stefon Diggs is gone to New England, Tank Dell is out recovering from a knee injury. Nico Collins is poised to be the alpha, and tight end Dalton Schultz is solid. The Texans drafted two wide receivers this year in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. While I’m not knocking either of them or their athleticism or skill but rookie wide receivers need time to develop. Christian Kirk was brought in to be the WR2, but he hasn’t been a factor since 2022.
So, the 2025 outlook for C.J. Stroud, seeing a massive spike in his touchdown production, seems less probable.
Missing Big Games
We can not ignore the fact that Stroud has yet to show big game potential. In his 32 games as a starter, Stroud has only two games with three or more passing touchdowns. He only has 14 multi-touchdown games across that span. Compare that to Goff’s 2024 season. Goff finished as QB6. Over the 17-game season, he had seven games with three or more touchdowns. So what will boost Stroud’s touchdown totals? If it’s not the receivers or big games, where do the extra touchdowns come from?
On top of the lack of touchdown production, Stroud also doesn’t put up a ton of yards. Last season, despite having seven fewer passing attempts than Goff, Stroud finished with 902 fewer passing yards. His 2024 total was almost 400 yards less than his rookie season. So what changed? It could have been the play calling? Despite having the same coaching staff and play caller. Maybe with Mixon in the backfield, they ran the ball more. In 2023, they threw the ball 59.1% of the time compared to 2024’s 58.3% of the time.
Maybe the new weapons will help, but maybe weapons aren’t the issue? While Stroud is a solid passer, he has struggled to get the ball to his receivers. In 2024, he had a 63.2 completion percentage. That was enough to make him 23rd among starting quarterbacks. His rookie year was not much better at 63.9% and 22nd overall.
So while not being bad enough to be benched, just not up to the level where he should be a top 10 dynasty quarterback. All these factors limit the upside of what C.J. Stroud can be in the future. Even a slight upgrade would still keep him out of the top ten, let alone the top five.
Is the Future bright?
Building Around Stroud
The Texans have been revamping the team since they brought in DeMeco Ryans and drafted Stroud. The issue is going to come to a head soon. Looking at future contracts needed the Texans will need to make some tough choices. There is little doubt that they will give Stroud a contract. Based on the going market, Stroud will be paid as one of the top players in the league. That will put a strain on the rest of the roster and cap space.
The left side of the offensive line is getting old. With Cam Robinson and Tytus Howard both being 29 years old entering this season. While not ancient, it’s getting up there in age. They also don’t have much young talent in waiting. The Texans have drafted an offensive lineman in each of the past four drafts. The ones drafted in the second round are starters, and the others are depth pieces who see little playing time. The Texans will have to invest high draft capital in the coming years to protect Stroud.
Since dynasty looks past this year, we can’t ignore the fact that three of the current starters will be looking for contracts after the 2026 season. So they are possible trade candidates next year. This will be on top of Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon. Stroud himself is set to hit the open market after the 2027 season, along with his top receiver, Nico Collins. So, where the Texans use their cap space and draft picks will matter. Will this current regime even be around to build that team, or will it be someone new?
Possible Coaching Changes
The Texans brought in former player DeMeco Ryans to turn the franchise around back in 2023. They started hot with the massive draft that brought in Stroud as well as defensive end Will Anderson, who anchors the defense. The Texans have been winning under Ryans. They have won the division both years but have lost in the divisional round each year. The failure to have any playoff success and struggles on offense cost Bobby Slowik his job as offensive coordinator after last season. It’s now up to Nick Caley to right the ship. Caley is entering his 12th NFL season, and this is his first stint as an offensive coordinator.
If things don’t turn around for the Texans, one would have to wonder what the ownership might change. It could just be Caley. It could be both him and Ryans. Either way, a new offensive coordinator is bad enough for a young quarterback. It would end up being Stroud’s third in four years if it happens after this season. Overall, it’s a young coaching staff that doesn’t have the pedigree to hold their positions through constant struggles. A shake-up would be another knock against Stroud jumping to the top 10 level he was billed to be.
What to do Now?
So what are you to do if you are owning C.J. Stroud right now? I suggest selling. Currently, His value as QB8 should fetch a handsome price. Straight up, you could make an equal trade for Drake Maye or Bo Nix. You could tier down for J.J. McCarthy or Michael Penix and gain another small asset. If you want more of a known asset, you can turn Stroud into Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, or even Kyler Murray, who have more upside and, at worst, produce what Stroud will and also give you another asset or two.
If you are fortunate enough to be able to discard Stroud and not need a quarterback right now, you can easily get multiple first-round picks. You could also turn that quarterback strength into strength at another position. At running back, players like Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving, and Breece Hall are all in play. Wide receivers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison, and Drake London could be had.
A lot of winning at dynasty is about finding value. Not just finding it on the waiver or players whose value will increase, but also moving on from players when the value is at its peak but does not look to continue. There is nothing worse than holding the bag on a player, knowing that just months earlier, you could have gotten more for them, and now they don’t instill the confidence they once did. The dip has already started on C.J. Stroud, don’t wait much longer for fear it dips further.
Let us know what YOU doing with C.J. Stroud over at The Fantasy Advice Network.
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