Everyone wants to be a league winner. You want to take home the championship and bragging rights that come with it in your league. To do that, you need to find players who not only provide value at their draft spot but can shatter that and make everyone else feel foolish for not taking them. These players are called league winners, and this year, I believe Washington Commanders wide receiver Deebo Samuel is one of those players. There are a ton of people doubting him after a rough 2024 season, but lets break down why you should be drafting Deebo. Why Deebo Samuel is a league winner in 2025.
Deebo Samuel: League Winner
History of success
Say what you want about Deebo’s 2024 season, he has been a solid performer in fantasy football. Sure, he didn’t live up to the 2023 finish where he was WR15, but Deebo still brought you value. He had three games over 20 points and a total of seven games where he was a WR3 or better for your fantasy team. Deebo has never been a top 10 type of guy. He has always been a high-floor player. That hasn’t changed. In the games where he wasn’t his usual self last year, he still produced mostly above five points, which is solid flex player numbers. He only had four games under five points. Deebo dealt with injuries last season, which did hinder his production.
In the previous years, Deebo Samuel has only had 17 games under 10 fantasy points. That’s out of 66 total games. You don’t get a more consistent player than that. Those numbers include the games where Deebo only played part-time because of injury or rest for the playoffs. Deebo has at times been one of the few weapons on a team that is used to having a wide variety of options and has had to become more one or two-dimensional because of injuries. This led to Deebo at times being frustrated with his role and the team’s direction. He parlayed that into a trade to the Washington Commanders, where he has wanted to play for a while. His history cannot be overlooked or passed on for an unproven rookie.
Current value
Deebo Samuel is being criminally undervalued right now. Currently, Deebo is going in the 6th round as the 39th wide receiver off the board. He is right around the likes of Khalil Shakir, Jordan Addison, and rookies Travis Hunter and Tetairoa McMillan. We don’t know what Hunter and McMillan can be in the NFL, but they were the top two wide receivers in the NFL draft and are projected to be in the 100 target projection range. That is where Shakir and Addison have lived. Addison in the past two years and Shakir last year. That shows me that people are drafting Deebo to have similar numbers. Deebo has only surpassed 100 targets once (2021) and finished as WR3. He saw 94 the following year (2022) in 13 games and finished as WR40. That 2022 year was when the 49ers had to go through three quarterbacks in Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Brock Purdy.
If Deebo gets 100 targets this year, he should get a least 70 receptions, 900 yards, and 5 touchdowns. That would give him 190 points. That would have put him as the WR33 last season. There is more to Deebo than just his receiving. Deebo has always been used in the running game. He excels with the ball in his hand. Samuel averaged 8.2 yards after the catch last season in the passing game and 2.33 yards after contact in the rushing game. Deebo has averaged 45 carries over the last four seasons with a 5.7 yards per attempt. Projecting him for 40 carries this season and only 4 yards per attempt adds another 160 yards and 16 more fantasy points. If he adds two rushing touchdowns, something he has scored every year except last year and 2020, he would have 218 fantasy points. That would have moved him from WR33 to tied for WR18. For someone going as WR39 right now, that’s a league winner. Deebo Samuel is set to vastly surpass his current ADP even with moderate projections. The upside is so much higher.
Team dynamic
You might have questions about Deebo Samuel’s role now that he is on the Washington Commanders. I love this situation for him. We have seen Deebo succeed on a team with another really good wide receiver, a veteran top-end tight end, and a really good running game. He goes from Brandin Aiyuk, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffery to Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz, and Jayden Daniels. Are those players as good as what Deebo Samuel was playing with in San Fran? Probably not, but that helps him produce more.
Passing Attack
Let’s start with the wide receiver group. I think Terry McLaurin is good but not great, and not as talented as a healthy Brandin Aiyuk. What McLaurin and Aiyuk have him common with Aiyuk is the type of routes they run. Both of them run more downfield routes. They have a similar average depth of targets in the 12-yard range. Both Aiyuk and McLaurin, in a full season will see around 120 targets. It’s nothing new for Deebo Samuel. It’s not like he is going from being a true Alpha to being a second-tier guy on his new team. He will remain the 1B on the Commanders.
Is Zach Ertz as good as George Kittle? Not currently. Maybe you could have made a case in Ertz’s heyday, but as we head into the 2025 season, Ertz is past his prime. Ertz saw 91 targets last season. That was the most he had had since 2021. Kittle has seen that in every healthy season. Ertz was second on the Commanders in targets last season. The Commanders knew they couldn’t roll into the 2025 season with a 34-year-old as their number two option. Samuel should see the majority of those targets and then add some that Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown had last season. Combined, they saw 116 targets.
The Commanders let Zaccheaus leave, still have Brown, and signed some depth pieces in Michael Gallup to go along with K.J. Osborn. Jayden Daniels as a passer is probably better than anything Deebo Samuel has seen in his career. I believe Daniels is a step up from Brock Purdy. Daniels is slightly more accurate, 69% completion percentage compared to Purdy’s 65.9%. The Commanders led the league in 2024 with an average number of plays with 66 per game compared to the 49ers, who only averaged 60.4. Daniels can keep drives along with his passing, but also his rushing
Rushing Attack
The running game is the biggest difference between the two teams. The 49ers have a system that helps running backs excel, and recently have had one of the most dynamic rushers in Christian McCaffrey. The Commanders rely heavily on Daniels to do the rushing. He had 148 carries last year. Compared to starting running back Brian Robinson, who had 187, and third-down back Austin Ekeler with 77. Both of the running backs have struggled with injuries over the past two years. Sometimes the best ability is availability. That could create the rushing upside we need for Deebo to be the league winner. If Deebo averaged 45 carries on a team with a great rushing attack in McCaffery, he has to be set for the same amount, if not more, on a team with not as good of rushers.
Deebo also struggles with injuries, so his availability. I think a small part of that was his desire to come back. Deebo has seemed unhappy the past few years in San Francisco. There have been leaked videos of him saying he wanted to play with Jayden Daniels in Washington. Having a player fully committed to the team and excited to be there will get them to play through more than if they aren’t. I expect we will see Deebo Samuel miss less time for the Commanders.
Creative Coaching
As crazy as it sounds, the Washington Commanders have a coaching staff that is creative enough to utilize Deebo Samuel. While Dan Quinn is known as a defense-first coach, he isn’t afraid to work in some exotic gadget type plays. We saw it in his time in Atlanta with Mohamed Sanu. We have seen it with offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. He once gave Christian Kirk 10 carries in a season. Kingsbury is the reason people still think Rondale Moore can be a thing after he saw 18 carries in 2021. You can even go back to his days at Texas Tech and what he did with Jakeem Grant.
The Commanders coaching staff isn’t afraid to run some different looks. Dyami Brown attempted a pass in 2024. Something Deebo Samuel has done three times over his career. They are willing to let their young quarterback create plays and extend plays with his legs. This will create off schedule throws and keep defenses on their toes. I expect the coaching staff who traded for Deebo Samuel are going to work him into the offense. They know what he can do with the ball in his hands and will find creative ways to get him the ball. Opportunities and creative ones especially in scoring situations are going to make Deebo Samuel a league winner.
Let us know who you think is a League Winner over at The Fantasy Advice Network.
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