I will be using the current FantasyPros Composite Rankings to compile a Do Not Draft List. These rankings do change as the offseason progresses, so the numbers may not match later. I hope they are closer to mine.
Each of the following players is a red flag for me in either 8-cat or points formats, or both. You can still take these players! I have them ranked below consensus, some far below. But if they are available where I want them, I draft them. The list should be good in either eight-category or points leagues.
Note: The brackets after a player’s name include: (Fantasy Pros Ranks vs. My Rank). My rankings can be found at the bottom of this page.
Do Not Add AD
PF/C Anthony Davis, Dallas Mavericks (#7 vs. #13)
I don’t think you should avoid Davis altogether. However, I have him out of my first round in all drafts. Davis has played 36, 40, 56, 76, and 51 games over the last five seasons, an average of 52 games. This means he has played in just 63% of his games over the past five seasons.
Davis is also 32 years old this season. While he has shown no signs of decline, I can’t take a guy who’s missed that many games in the first round of my draft. In some sort of best-ball format, he’s probably a low first-rounder for me, but I bet I don’t get him there either. He’s still statistically awesome, but I’d prefer to take his awesomeness in the second round.
Draft no sooner than: #13 overall.
No Category Magic
SF/PF Paolo Banchero (#17 vs. #42) &
SF Franz Wagner (#22 vs. #32), Orlando Magic
First, let me say this: Banchero and Wagner are good picks in points leagues, especially Banchero. I have Banchero at #13 and Wagner at #35. I think if Banchero stays healthy, he could be a first-round pick next year in points leagues.
They both have outstanding usage rates. However, Banchero and Wagner have been underperforming in category formats for years. Last year, Wagner ranked 57th on ESPN’s Player Rater, a good evaluation tool for 8-cat leagues. Banchero was 183rd.
The listed category ranking for Banchero is 17. The average is a higher number, but still too rich for me. He hasn’t done a thing in his career to deserve this distinction. Wagner is ranked 22nd, which is more justifiable for me, as I have him at 32. Regardless, I am out.
Even if you do take the two players here, you are 100% taking them at their ceilings. That is not always a bad idea, but it would be nice if it were glaringly obvious that they would reach them. I would draft Banchero at #40 as he showed glimmers last year of better efficiency, but he’ll probably be gone by then. Just as well.
Draft no sooner than: Banchero #40 overall; Wagner #30 overall (categories)
Other Players To Avoid (all formats)
C Ivica Zubac, Los Angeles Clippers (#31 vs. 9-10th Round)
Zubac is one of the most polarizing players in drafts this year. He’s either ranked in the top 40 or near where I have him, in the 80s.
Here are a few outliers from last year for the nine-year vet. Zubac played 400 more minutes than his high-water mark in the 2022-2023 season. He scored five hundred more points and grabbed two hundred fifty more rebounds than his career best. The rest of his numbers look like this, except for his blocked shots, which did not scale. Zubac landed in the top 20 overall in many formats. A superb year from the big man.
What did the Clippers do in response to newly minting a fantasy superstar? They added C Brook Lopez and PF/C John Collins this offseason. Lopez rarely misses a game and averaged 31 minutes last year. Collins was sidelined a lot last year, but it was in Utah, whose player management is erratic. That doesn’t sound like a team that wants to lean on Zubac again.
I did draft Zubac frequently last year, in round nine. That’s about where I’d want him this year. Most people have him in the top 40, and you can definitely skip him there.
Draft no sooner than: #70 overall.
SF Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
I’ll make this one fast. Kawhi Leonard allegedly got paid for a no-show endorsement deal by the owner of the Clippers. This would circumvent cap rules. Reports are that he may not be suspended for this, but I’m happy to let you take the chance on this one. Even in a normal year, he misses around 30 games per season. Oh, and he was #152 on ESPN’s Player Rater, no thanks.
I’ve left him off my rankings completely, to be safe. I would consider taking him in Round 9, which means I will likely not have him on my team.
Desmond Bane, Orlando Magic (#42 vs. 6th-7th round)
I mentioned in my article on Pace Factor that nobody plays slower than the Orlando Magic. That is still likely to be true this season. On the other hand, do you know who was the #1 team in pace last year? The Memphis Grizzlies. Bane is going from the fastest team to the slowest. That’s nearly guaranteed to depress his counting numbers, especially as a third option.
If that weren’t enough, Bane is basically Orlando’s only serious three-point threat. No other current Magic player shot as high as league average from distance last year; Mo Wagner was close. He’s a great shooter, but that’s too much to overcome.
Bane registers in multiple categories, so he’s still valuable. I don’t think he’ll drop off the map, but a slight statistical drop across the board means I’m not taking him as high as he’s listed.
Draft no sooner than: #50 overall
Lauri Markkenen, Utah Jazz (#54 vs. 9th round)
Markkenen was ranked even higher than this before an even more pessimistic ranking than mine came in. Most people have him in the top fifty, and some in the top thirty.
To me, this is bananas. He ranked #163 on the ESPN Player Rater last year. He’s played in an average of 51 games over the past two seasons. More than one publication has said he has one of the worst contracts in the NBA, as he’s seven feet tall and shot 42% last year. In my format, 8-cat, he’s even less valuable because one of his best attributes is a low turnover rate.
Utah is going nowhere and has a habit of shutting players down. They will want to take long looks at players like Ace Bailey, Walter Clayton, Jr., and Keyonte George, all of whom are score-first players. They also have summer star Kyle Filipowski, who plays Markkenen’s position and is one of my favorite late sleeper picks. Markkenen is at best a volume play, and at worst, the guy you drop to pick up a hot waiver pick.
Draft no sooner than: #65 overall, and don’t.
Kyrie Irving, Dallas Mavericks (#103 vs. Not Ranked)
We’re like, pretty sure that Kyrie’s going to play this year, maybe. He says he wants to come back at 150%, which is a tall order for a fast, shifty guard. The team seems confident, as they gave him a big contract, but that doesn’t mean he has to be on your fantasy team this year.
The same logic applies to players like Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton. Maybe those guys play. More likely, they just take up an IR spot all season and do nothing. If you get them late enough, it may not matter as much, and you can take these risks. I will do nothing to stop you in drafts; I will pass.
Draft no sooner than: next year.
Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns (#82 vs. 12th/13th round)
Sure, at the 9th round spot, you’re getting William; he’s probably a perfectly fine speculative pick. His numbers, while healthy the last two seasons, have been strong big man numbers. Except that Williams has played three NBA seasons and just 106 games (average 35.3). The Suns also signed Nick Richards and drafted Duke center Khaman Malauch tenth overall this year, which makes center the one solid place on the Phoenix depth chart.
I’m fine letting you have him earlier and taking players like Alex Sarr, Donovan Clingan, Zach Edey, and Nic Claxton in the same sort of range.
Draft no sooner than: #120 overall
