Some things have changed in fantasy basketball with injury news and the Russell Westbrook signing. Let’s first take a quick look at some risers and fallers in my rankings. Then, I’ll give you some draft tiers to use for your drafts on this big draft weekend. Welcome to Draft Weekend Risers & Fallers and Tiers.
Moving On Up
Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
Maxey has moved up a lot of draft boards because of the 76ers’ fluid situation with player availability. Mine, too: I have Maxey as a first-round pick now in 12-team leagues. Half of Philly’s rotation is due to start the year injured, and Maxey is healthy. We know what he looks like healthy: great scoring, steals, and assists.
Kevin Durant, Houston Rockets, and James Harden, Los Angeles Clippers (points leagues)
Because my points league rankings are kind of a hybrid of different formats, I’ve moved KD up a few spots. He’s superior in weekly formats and still pretty solid everywhere else. I’ve also moved Harden up a few spots for the same reason. He’s closer to a first-round pick in weekly formats, no matter what they’re doing to his workload, within reason. They remain around #20 on my category list.
Other risers (new rank): Donovan Clingan (101), Onyeka Okongwu (now 105)
Rankings Fallers
PF/C Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
This one hurts because I’ve been touting the guy for months, but Sabonis has just lost some value. He’s still incredibly steady, but he’s fallen out of my first round. I believe Russell Westbrook takes up too much bandwidth. Sacramento has two point guards with Westbrook and Dennis Schroder, and two more wings who can create shots for others in DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine.
I’m forced to project Sabonis’ assist totals falling, and probably his scoring, too. Westbrook is also an all-time rebounder for a guard, which could even cut into some of Sabonis’ bread-and-butter board dominance. Westbrook might be good for Sacramento, but he’s bad for their big man’s fantasy numbers. I’ve dropped Sabonis into Round 2.
PF/SF LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
This is self-explanatory, but LeBron is going to be out for a while with sciatica. I would be very wary of drafting King James before Round 3 at this point. Furthermore, he’s the oldest player in the NBA, and nerve injuries do tend to recur. If the Lakers were to fall out of the race early, LeBron might not play the sort of schedule we’re used to.
PF/SF Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
I love Jalen Williams, but the news out of OKC’s camp is sobering. It appears J-Dub might not be ready for the opener after all. Williams is one of the toughest players in the NBA, but wrist injuries are tricky. Furthermore, the Thunder have the deepest bench in the NBA, and might decide not to rush him back. Even if they do, they may cut his minutes somewhat if other frontcourt players can stay healthy this season. You can still draft him in Round 2, but I’ve ranked him in Round 3.
SF/PF Paul George, Philadelphia 76ers
See Maxey above. George is likely going to start the year out after injuring himself in the offseason. Just as importantly, I can imagine George’s minutes falling this year a bit to keep him healthy. VJ Edgecombe appears to be starting opening night at small forward, and the 76ers may try to play Adem Bona at the four somewhat this year. The 76ers have a huge amount of future cap space invested in George, so he’s going to play, but I’m growing skittish.
Other fallers (new rank): Wendell Carter, Jr. (133), Malik Monk (140), Keegan Murray (falls out of rankings)
Player Tiers For Your Draft
Here’s a general guide to who I would draft, and where, on this big draft weekend. This is something of a vibes hybrid category/points league list. Feel free to move players up and down according to your league rules. The tiers are not ordered top to bottom – any player in a tier fits. The “rounds” are based on a ten-team league.
Nikola Jokic Tier (Tier 1)
That’s it, that’s the whole tier. Nobody else deserves to be drafted at #1. Jokic could play 2/3 of his minutes and still be worthy of a third-round pick in any format.
Tier 2 – The Top Five
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Luka Doncic
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Victor Wembanyama
The rest of the vaunted top five, in alphabetical order. Giannis and Doncic are better in many points leagues, Wemby and SGA in categories, but any of these five will do for any pick #2-5.
Tier 3 – Cornerstones
Cade Cunningham
Anthony Edwards
Karl-Anthony Towns
Trae Young
All four of these players are great first-round picks in any format. They give you different things in category leagues and are reliable points players.
Tier 4 – Safe Seconds (1/2)
Devin Booker
Tyrese Maxey
Domantas Sabonis
Anthony Davis
Stephen Curry
Donovan Mitchell
Jalen Brunson
James Harden
Kevin Durant
I would not be overwhelmingly excited to draft Anthony Davis in Round 1. The superstar center has played an average of 52 games per year over the past five seasons, though he has elite upside. Each of these players is a safe second-round pick, however, in most formats.
Tier 5 – Super Support Players (2/3 turn and beyond)
Alperen Sengun
Scottie Barnes
Bam Adebayo
Evan Mobley
Pascal Siakam
LeBron James
Jalen Johnson
Jalen Williams
Amen Thompson
Jaylen Brown
Each of these players is productive in multiple categories and strong in points leagues. In category leagues, match your selection here with the rest of your team. You should either fill in weaker categories or strengthen categories for punt builds.
Tier 6 – Early Round Point Guards (Rounds 3/4)
De’Aaron Fox
Ja Morant
Jamal Murray
LaMelo Ball
Derrick White
In a year where assists are at a premium, you probably want to leave your draft with one of these Round 3/4 point guards in category leagues. It’s not easy to fill them in later in the draft. They also help you catch up if you miss out on players like Doncic, Young, and Brunson.
Tier 7 – Big Swings Early (Rounds 3/4)
Zion Williamson
Joel Embiid
Jalen Williams
Paolo Banchero
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Chet Holmgren
Middle rounds are usually the best place to take a big swing. First and second round picks should be very solid. Picks above 100 don’t usually force their way into the top tiers. These players could make a huge difference in your team’s outlook, depending on how they play. If you do take one or even two of these players, steer safer in later rounds.
All are capable of second-round production, some possibly better. Banchero should go earlier than this in points, but he should not in category formats based on his past performance.
Tier 8 – Safe And Sound (Rounds 4/5)
Franz Wagner
DeMar DeRozan
Josh Giddey
Jimmy Butler III
Deni Avdija
Dyson Daniels
Nikola Vucevic
Cooper Flagg
If Tier 7 isn’t your cup of tea, here are some safer picks for the beginning of your middle rounds. There is upside here, too! Probable Rookie of the Year Cooper Flagg is here. So are popular draft risers Deni Avdija and Josh Giddey. Dyson Daniels is a fun pick here for his uniqueness, too, and works in a lot of category builds.
Tier 9 – Still Safe, But Less Sound (Rounds 5/6)
Jarrett Allen
Desmond Bane
Mikal Bridges
Darius Garland
Tyler Herro
Zach LaVine
Brandon Miller
Trey Murphy III
Immanuel Quickley
Austin Reaves
Myles Turner
We’re starting to lose the plot a little bit here, but all of these guys are good. All are guaranteed playing time, are productive in different ways, and should be useful parts of your fantasy team. Some, like Garland and Herro, will start the year injured, but hopefully finish the year strong. I have Quickley ranked higher than consensus, and I make no apologies for this. He’s a consistent source of assists, points, threes, FT%, and he’s a good rebounder for a guard. If you play in 9-cat, he’s even better.
Tier 10 – Sound, But Less Safe (7/8)
Deandre Ayton
Bradley Beal
Miles Bridges
Jalen Duren
Paul George
Rudy Gobert
Brandon Ingram
Walker Kessler
CJ McCollum
Jordan Poole
Payton Pritchard
Julius Randle
Cam Thomas
Coby White
A lot of people might be surprised to find Bradley Beal up here for me. The Suns had Kevin Durant and Devin Booker – did anyone think Beal was going to put up 20+ points a game on that team? It’s the same reason you find Desmond Bane in Tier 9 for me. Depending on what happens on this team, they may need his scoring punch.
Payton Pritchard is in just the right place here. Walker Kessler is a better player than this, but he does not stay active. Paul George is not washed as said: his scoring was down, but his other numbers were consistent, especially his steals. But George is hurt.
Tier 11 – Category (or ESPN) Players I Like, But Shouldn’t Be Higher (Rounds 8/9)
Og Anunoby
Nic Claxton
Jalen Green
Tobias Harris
Josh Hart
Isaiah Hartenstein
Cameron Johnson
Kawhi Leonard
Bennedict Mathurin
Jakob Poeltl
Michael Porter Jr
Norman Powell
Shaedon Sharpe
P.J. Washington Jr
Ivica Zubac
My favorite player here is Shaedon Sharpe, whom I have been reaching for with regularity. His ceiling is 25/5/4 this season, and his floor is probably last year’s numbers. Don’t laugh – who else is scoring on Portland?
Kawhi Leonard can finally be found here. His legal troubles and regularly missed games make him a risky pick earlier. I will probably not get him. Just as well. I also think players like Hart and Zubac, who finished the year way higher than this and are higher on most draft boards, will also not get to me. The rest of these players are extremely reliable over the long term.
PJ Washington and Nic Claxton should probably go lower than this in points leagues, and Jalen Green higher, depending on format. A lot of people are calling for the demise of these players, however, and I don’t see it. The Mavericks are going to need Washington’s steadiness, and your category team will appreciate his frontcourt glue guy profile. Claxton is a center on a team full of wings, and Day’Ron Sharpe is not taking his job. And Jalen Green is a former #2 overall pick who is just twenty-three and has nothing but open scoring space on Phoenix!
Tier 12 – Guys With Jobs (Rounds 9/10)
Donovan Clingan
Jrue Holiday
Jaden Ivey
Kyle Kuzma
Dereck Lively II
Andrew Nembhard
Onyeka Okongwu
Kevin Porter, Jr.
Naz Reid
Zaccharie Risacher
Alex Sarr
Klay Thompson
Devin Vassell
Each of these guys has guaranteed minutes, and there are some interesting names in here. Donovan Clingan, Alex Sarr, and Zaccharie Risacher are the most notable second-year players; any or all could break out. Klay Thompson probably makes his last ever appearance in the top 100 for me, but he’s a guaranteed 3 treys a game and a few negatives. I had Keegan Murray in here before the injury. I like Kyle Kuzma right here, especially if I have gone guard-heavy and need forward depth. Kuzma has basically no competition for minutes at small forward.
Tier 13 – Names I Like Above Pick 100
Matas Buzelis
Kyle Filipowski
Rui Hachimura
Scoot Henderson
Kon Kneuppel
Reed Sheppard
Jabari Smith Jr
Ausar Thompson
These are some of the players I like the most above pick 100. Rui Hachimura averages 20 points per game without the King. Matas Buzelis has been way higher on draft boards, but he’s not worth that kind of capital yet. Ausar Thompson and Reed Sheppard might be, depending on playing time and if their excellent steal and block numbers scale. Jabari Smith has one more chance to prove he can be the energetic player they drafted at #3 overall. Kyle Filipowski is kind of the good version of Jabari Smith without the draft pedigree. Kon Knueppel is probably a three-point specialist right out of the gate. Scoot Henderson has a timeshare coming up, but he might be useful as a sixth man this year.
Good Luck This Year!
Whatever your draft and the season bring, I hope that this is your year. I’ll be checking in weekly with some news and notes. I’ll probably also provide you with some of my best NBA wagers for the week, and a few good upcoming DFS plays. Feel free to check out some of my other work on FSAN.com, and I’m looking forward to what should be a competitive and exciting NBA season.
