Advanced fantasy players use advanced statistics to get ahead and fill out their rosters. Using advanced stats helps you get ahead of your competition, because you’ll notice players that they’re still ignoring. Learning clever techniques for filling out your roster is what the offseason is all about. Remember, in fantasy basketball, the 13th man matters almost as much as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – they all play.
This is the first in a series about advanced statistics, and we’ll start with True Shooting Percentage (TS%). Click here to see advanced statistics for yourself. I won’t bore you with the algebra, but you can Google it easily if you’re interested. Below, we’ll discuss some players you could have found using TS% and how to find them yourself.
What is True Shooting Percentage (TS%)?
You might not be looking at TS% yet, but NBA GMs are. Why? The NBA has become three-point-centric, because three is more than two. True Shooting Percentage, and its cousin, “effective field goal percentage” (eFG%), use this math. NBA front offices are all over this. I prefer TS% because it includes free-throw percentage, but both are good statistics.
Superstar James Harden is an example of why TS% is a better measurement than traditional shooting percentage (FG%). The Beard is a projected first-rounder on many draft boards despite him being a total liability in the traditional FG% category. He made just 41% of his shots last year, seventh-worst in the NBA among qualifiers, with a lot of volume. One of my future preseason columns makes him the basis for an FG% punt strategy.
However, his “true” shooting percentage, or TS%, was closer to 58%. This rate is mediocre for a guard, which is fine considering how great a playmaker Harden is. He is one of the biggest pluses from the free-throw line and dangerous from three-point range. The TS% stat better reflects his offensive value.
Players with good TS% don’t usually get benched when they’re in slumps, and they get nearly automatic minutes. This is true even if their “traditional” field goal percentage (FG%) isn’t great.
SF Deni Avdija, Portland Trail Blazers (49th in TS% in 2024-2025)
Knowing about TS% would have caused you to buy Deni Avdija low last year. Avdija had a twelfth-round average draft position last year. A bad start in 2024-2025 left him on the waiver wire in many leagues. Smart players happily scooped him off waivers or traded for him early.
Those who did were well-rewarded. The former top-five pick crushed from December onward, shooting an even 50% from the floor and 37% from three-point range. He also improved from the free-throw line, making over 81% from the charity stripe on an impactful 6.5 free throws per game in March and April. On the year, Avdija finished top-70 in category leagues, far outpacing his draft position.
Why did veteran fantasy players target Avdija early in the season? In my article about rookies, I cautioned you about Cooper Flagg’s possible inefficient shooting in his first year. It usually takes a little while for younger NBA players to find the range. Avdija made a big jump in his fourth year shooting the rock, also finishing top 50 in TS% in 2023-2024, and last year was Avdija’s fifth year.
You should target him this year regardless of format. Preseason rankings have him 90th or lower in drafts all over the Internet. This is despite the Blazers trading away 20 point per game volume shooter Anfernee Simons. Make it make sense! Ignore the rankings: reach into the 8th or 9th round and steal him if he stays this low. I could justify using as high as a 5th-round pick on Avdija.
SF/PF De’Andre Hunter, Cleveland Cavaliers (28th, TS%)
Hunter’s traditional FG% has been slightly below average for his career. The veteran forward has shot a career 45.2% from the floor, as opposed to a 47%+ league average. Despite the 28th-place ranking above, he was a virtual zero in the FG% category last year, shooting just 47% from the floor.
However, he has been in the top 80 in TS% in each of the past two seasons, including the career high last year. He made 40.5% of his three pointers last year (35th best) on a good volume of 6.5 shots per game (68th).
This is why smart players didn’t drop Hunter after he was traded to the contending Cavaliers last year. Despite diminished minutes, he was still a good player to roster in fantasy. Hunter doesn’t hurt or help you with his defensive numbers, assists or boards. But Hunter is a lock to be a plus in three pointers, points, and FT%, and he rarely turns the ball over. He’s a reliable player to have at the end of your bench. And, when he had starter minutes last year, he put up 19 points per game.
SF/PF Rui Hachimura, Los Angeles Lakers (30th, TS%)
Unlike some of the other players on this list, Hachimura never hurt you in FG%. He’s been an average-or-better shooter inside the arc for his whole career. Yet the veteran forward rarely managed to get starter’s minutes. Why? Even though he could make shots, his TS% was very low because he was not a threat from beyond the arc.
However, Hachimura started to find his three-point shot for the Lakers in 2023-2024. He was rewarded for this. Last year, he played a career-high 32 minutes per game, which makes him a legitimate starter on a top Western Conference team.
Hachimura is a good player to roster this year at the end of your draft. He doesn’t hurt you in any categories and is one of the best late-round FG% fixers in fantasy. Because he is an accurate shooter, Hachimura also has a ton of scoring upside. If you play daily fantasy, he’s scored almost 20 points per game when LeBron doesn’t play. If the King retires, make sure you get him earlier than the end of the draft next year, because his role could expand.
SG/SF Ochai Agbaji, Toronto Raptors (54th, TS%)
Agbaji (below) is a former lottery pick who got his first serious minutes last year. Part of the reason he got playing time was because of injuries to Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett. However, he wouldn’t have stayed on the floor long if he wasn’t making his shots. Agbaji came out last year like a house on fire, posting top-50 numbers in some formats through November, especially 9-cat.
He couldn’t keep this up all year long, but last season solidified his role on a rebuilding Raptors team with lots of open minutes. He’s a fantastic player to own this year at the end of your bench in category leagues. You might not draft him in points leagues, but if he gets more shot opportunities, nab him off the wire.
SG Keon Ellis, Sacramento Kings (5th in TS% in 2024-2025)
Ellis, an undrafted third-year player, posted positive production in every fantasy category last year. Despite just 24 minutes per game, Ellis’ stats indicate a 7th-round value last season. Every category player wants at least a guy or two like this on their roster.
The easiest way to find Ellis last year was either through a category player rater or by looking at the TS% leaders. Experienced fantasy managers would then immediately notice his across-the-board production.
The Kings understand his value. They publicly made him off-limits in trade talks with Golden State. Veteran category players will make him their 11th or 12th man on their roster and laugh all the way to the bank this season.
There’s a caveat to rostering a player like Keon Ellis. Ellis is exactly the sort of player you will never want in points leagues. He’s never going to get a huge boost in shots. His counting stats aren’t sexy. But he’s a little bit good at everything, which makes him what we call a “glue guy” in category leagues.
