We are breaking down each division team by team and identifying who the sleeper and who the bust are for every team. We pulled average draft position (ADP) from Fantasy Pros on July 13th and will only be looking at guys inside the top 200.
A sleeper is someone who will out-produce their current ADP and ranking
A bust is a player who won’t live up to their ADP and rankings
NFC East Sleepers and Bust
Philadelphia Eagles
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Saquon Barkley– 4, RB2
A.J. Brown– 17, WR10
Jalen Hurts– 39, QB4
DeVonta Smith– 51, WR26
Dallas Goedert– 136, TE14
Will Shipley– 187, RB58
Sleeper- DeVonta Smith
The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the best wide receiver duos in the league. Both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are capable of being a wide receiver one. So why is Smith currently being drafted just outside the WR2 range?
Smith is being drafted just one positional spot behind his 2024 finish. While it was the worst statistical season of Smith’s career, he only played 13 games. What would he have been if he had played every game? He has the game-breaking speed and potential. In the past two seasons (29 games), he has only had under 50 yards ten times. He had eight touchdowns in 13 games last season. Could have had 12 or more if he had played all 17. Sleeper potential all day.
Bust- Will Shipley
There are still plenty of people who believe in Will Shipley. The drumbeats are building even more now. There are a ton of people who believe the volume that Saquon Barkley got last year makes him more susceptible to injury, and thus, the hand cuff is a needed piece to own.
My issue with Shipley is that he was bad last season on very limited carries. He was inefficient with only 2.73 yards per carry. The bigger problem is that Shipley might not even be the backup. The Eagles brought in AJ Dillon this offseason, who is currently competing with Shipley for that RB2 role. Drafting Shipley is counting on him winning the role and Barkley missing time. Kenneth Gainwell was the backup last year and finished as RB61.
Dallas Cowboys
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
CeeDee Lamb– 5, WR3
George Pickens– 57, WR30
Dak Prescott– 100, QB13
Javonte Williams– 128, RB41
Jaydon Blue– 139, RB43
Jake Ferguson– 148, TE16
Sleeper-Javonte Williams
The Dallas Cowboys have been searching for a lead running back since Ezekiel Elliott. This year, the competition comes down to the battle between Javonte Williams. Jaydon Blue and Miles Sanders. Currently, Sanders and Blue are dealing with injuries, which opens the door for Williams even more.
Williams finished as RB30 last year despite splitting time with two other running backs in Denver. He now gets the chance to be the first guy on a Cowboys team that is poised to be high scoring. If the Cowboys’ offense is as good as people are expecting, then running will be relied on later in games. Williams got 217 carries back in 2023 as the lead back in Denver, so he can carry the load. His reduced draft cost is due to people not knowing who will be the main guy, but even in a split backfield, he will smash the RB41 cost
Bust- Jake Ferguson
I like Jake Ferguson, but struggle to find value drafting him as the TE16. He was TE9 in 2023 on the back of 102 targets and five touchdowns. In 2024, he finished with only 86 targets and no touchdowns, but he only played 14 games. He would have had over 200 targets if he played a full season, but the lack of scoring killed his fantasy production, putting him as TE25.
This year, the Cowboys traded for George Picke, which takes away targets for Ferguson. He was the beneficiary of not having a solid WR2 on the team. Now that the Cowboys do it means less work for the four-year vet. He is already dealing with a lower back injury, which could linger into the season. Seems too risky to draft him right now.
Washington Commanders
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Terry McLaurin– 36, WR19
Jayden Daniels– 37, QB3
Deebo Samuel– 75, WR39
Brian Robinson– 89, RB30
Austin Ekeler– 153, RB49
Zach Ertz– 164, TE19
Sleeper- Zach Ertz
He may be old, but Zach Ertz is still producing in the NFL. Ben Sinnott isn’t taking over. Ertz has developed as a go-to target for Jayden Daniels and will continue that this season. His TE19 draft cost is nothing more than people not wanting older players.
Ertz was second on the team in targets last season with 91. I do expect that number to come down with Deebo Samuel being there. There is the possibility that Terry McLaurin gets traded, but I doubt it. Even with a decrease in targets, Ertz will beat his TE19 draft cost. He led the Commanders in red zone targets last season with 18. That led to six of his seven touchdowns. While touchdowns are something we can bank on, red zone targets are not. He provides a safe big target for Daniels and will continue to be that this season. Easy smash at TE19.
Bust- Jayden Daniels
Much like others, I just don’t love drafting guys at their ceiling. That seems to be where Jayden Daniels is right now. Even if he were to finish as the QB,1 you are only getting your investment back. You don’t gain anything. The risk ithatat he drops down to either where he was last season (QB5) or has a sophomore regression.
A ton of Daniel’s fantasy value and production came from his rushing upside. With six rushing touchdowns and 891 yards, those are numbers we would like to see from a flex running back. Does that continue this year? Daniels is a smaller-framed guy, and we have seen the beating rushing quarterbacks can take. The moves the Commanders made this offseason show they want him to throw more than run. The biggest probability odds are that he fails to live up to the QB3 draft cost and ends up closer to QB5 or lower.
New York Giants
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Malik Nabers– 7, WR4
Tyron Tracy– 103, RB33
Cam Skattebo– 110, RB37
Wan’Dale Robinson– 163, WR67
Russell Wilson- 194, QB31
Darius Slayton– 200, WR79
Sleeper- Wan’Dale Robinson
Lost in last year’s stats was the fact that Wan’Dale Robinson saw 140 targets. That’s the 14th most in the NFL. While he wasn’t great with all those targets, it’s still volume. He finished as WR36. He only had three touchdowns and was just shy of 700 yards.
A better quarterback may make those targets go down, but the quality of targets should be better. Only 99 of those 140 were deemed catchable last year. Robinson hauled in 93 of them. Even if his overall volume drops closer to 120 targets, he should see more actual receptions, which will lead to more yards and possibly more touchdowns. Being drafted as WR67 seems like an insult. He’s not a flashy player but a solid producer who will vastly exceed cost.
Bust- Malik Nabers
Malik Nabers is a stud. He is listed as a bust because, like some other big names in these articles, the odds of him finishing as high as he did last year or higher seem highly unlikely. Nabers finished as WR6 last year. It was his rookie season, and it was very impressive. Even more so when you consider the horrible quarterback play. That changes this year with Russell Wilson or possibly Jaxson Dart under center.
I worry about the volume for Nabers. He finished the season with 170 targets. Only 21 times has a wide receiver received more targets in the past five seasons. The upgrade at quarterback might be a deterrent to his volume, not a boost. A more confident and capable passer might look elsewhere and read things differentlyover-forcingng things to Nabers. Drafting him as WR4 seems like his ceiling, which always fails to return value.