We are breaking down each division team by team and identifying who the sleeper and who the bust are for every team. We pulled average draft position (ADP) from Fantasy Pros on July 13th and will only be looking at guys inside the top 200.
A sleeper is someone who will out-produce their current ADP and ranking
A bust is a player who won’t live up to their ADP and rankings.
NFC South Sleepers & Bust
Atlanta Falcons
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Bijan Robinson– 2, RB1
Drake London– 16, WR9
Darnell Mooney– 95, WR46
Michael Penix– 132, QB21
Kyle Pitts– 158, TE18
Tyler Allgeier– 159, RB50
Sleeper- Michael Penix
I have said it and I will say it again, Michael Penix is the best quarterback from the 2023 NFL draft class. While he has a tall task in front of him, given what we saw last year from his counterparts but I believe it will happen and will certainly exceed his QB21 draft cost.
We only saw Penix in three games last year, and while there wasn’t a ton to write home about, that’s typical for any rookie’s first three games. With a full training camp with the first team after a year of learning, Penix is poised for a breakout. If we look at what Kirk Cousins did last year on this team, we have to be in love with Penix. Cousins finished as QB21 last year with only 14 games. If he played all 17, then he would have easily finished much higher. Penix can easily repeat and beat Cousins’ stats for 2023.
Bust- Bijan Robinson
Before you get your pitchforks, let me say this. Bijan will be a top-five running back. I just don’t see another bust on the list, and the odds of Bijan finishing as RB1 are slim. He might end up being RB3, so not a big bust, but still finish below where you drafted him. I just think everyone else on the team finishes above their current ADP.
If I were going to make a strong argument against Bijan, it would be the workload from last year. He had 365 total touches, which is a ton. Yes, Robinson is young and more durable than 28 28-year-old running back who had 378 touches and a long injury history. But the wear and tear will eventually catch up with Bijan. So does Bijan miss some games? I’m never one to call for an injury, but the wear and tear is a potential red flag.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Bucky Irving– 21, RB9
Mike Evans– 38, WR20
Chris Godwin– 60, WR31
Baker Mayfield– 76, QB7
Emeka Egbuka– 98, WR49
Rachaad White– 137, RB42
Jalen McMillan– 161, WR66
Cade Otton– 178, TE23
Sleeper- Rachaad White
I know everyone has Bucky fever and rightfully so after the year he had last season. With how much steam Bucky is getting, people are quickly forgetting about Rachaad White. While he is still an inefficient back, he still gets volume.
Last season, White saw 144 carries. Some might think that was front-loaded before the Bucky breakout, but in the first five games, White saw 51 carries. In the last five games, he saw 52. In that same span, Irving got 44 and 74. While he certainly lost his starting role to Irving, he is still being used. That will continue into 2025. White is also used in the passing game with 57 targets last year. People seem not to realize that White finished as the RB22 last season. It would be a massive fall for him to reach RB42, where he is being drafted. He might be one of my favorite sleepers in the NFL this year.
Bust- Baker Mayfield
I love that Baker Mayfield has had a career renaissance these past two years in Tampa Bay. I love what he did last year with the Bucs, but it seems like an outlier, not a new standard. We can look at some of the metrics for Baker and see him due to regress from QB4 and probably finish closer to his QB10 2023 finish.
First, the touchdown efficiency was super high last year. His touchdown percentage jumped from 4.9% in 2023 to 7.2%. That was with four more passing attempts. His completion percentage jumped from 64.3% to 71.4% which added an extra 500 yards to his totals. A big part of that was shorter passes to Cade Otton and the running backs as the wide receivers dealt with injuries. Mayfield also had similar rushing attempts from 2023 to 2024, but had 200 more yards. I expect his numbers in 2025 to be similar to 2023, not 2024. He did finish as QB10 that year. While QB7 isn’t that far off, I would rather wait and select someone more at their final value.
Carolina Panthers
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Tetairoa McMillan– 49, WR24
Chuba Hubbard– 53, RB18
Bryce Young– 141, QB23
Adam Thielen– 154, WR62
Rico Dowdle– 166, RB52
Xavier Legette– 164, WR68
Sleeper- Tetairoa McMillan
There was a reason that Tetairoa McMillan was a first-round draft pick. He is a stud athlete who had three solid college seasons and now lands on a team desperate for a lead receiver. They drafted McMillan to be that and should have all the opportunities in the world.
We can start with the vacant targets. Dionte Johnson is gone. That frees up 58 targets. McMillan slides into the role David Moore held last year and saw 57 targets. We could easily see TMac with 100 targets. That made him the 34th last season. While that is still behind his ADP of WR24, I expect McMillan to see considerably more and have a solid touchdown number. WR24 last year was Jauan Jennings, who had a stat line of 77 receptions, 975 yards, and 6 touchdowns. That’s a very obtainable and beatable number for McMillan.
Bust- Chuba Hubbard
I love that Chuba Hubbard has been a very good fantasy running back the past two years. Who doesn’t? His name is just so fun to say and allows for some creative team names. But I think this year he has reached the point where the value is gone.
The Panthers brought in Rico Dowdle this offseason. He is a very good running back who will take more work away from Hubbard than Miles Sanders did last season. Hubbard had 250 carries last season. Even a small decrease in volume would be a massive impact. Hubbard has been up and down in his consistency as a rusher. Last year, he averaged 4.78 yards per carry, but the year before, he was a full yard lower. Dowdle is also a good pass catcher, which will eat into the low 54 targets Hubbard had last year.
New Orleans Saints
Current ADP (Overall, Positional)
Alvin Kamara– 48, RB17
Chris Olave– 65, WR36
Rashid Shaheed– 116, WR53
Juwan Johnson– 195,TE27
Sleeper- Chris Olave
There was slim picking to go from here with only four players making it into the top 200. I picked Olave because he has the most potential. Yes, he had a massive injury risk, but we have to go into the season with the thought of what happens if he is healthy, not what if he is injured.
Olave finished 2023 as the WR16. He only had 87 receptions and five touchdowns that year. Plenty of room to grow. Yes, the quarterback situation is a question mark. I like Tyler Shough and believe he is being slept on. We were talking at this time last year that Olave could make the jump into the top 10, and now he is being drafted at WR36. That means currently, people are expecting some WR2s on teams to out-produce him.
Bust- Rashid Shaheed
While I loved Olave, I worry about Shaheed. Yes, it’s hard to be a bust when being drafted as WR53, but again, slim pickings. Alvin Kamara seems like a lock to finish inside the top 12, and Juwan Johnson seems like he won’t finish below TE27 just because the bar is set so low. So that leaves us with Shaheed.
I do think there are some slight reasons to be concerned. He missed most of last season with a knee injury. Not what you want to see from a player whose game is built on speed. He could be slow coming back from that. We know the quarterback situation could be murky. We can also look at 2023, where Shaheed played almost the full season yet finished as the WR44. At the same time, that would be an improvement on his current ADP, but it’s a sign that he could have a disappointing year.