We are breaking down each division team by team and identifying who the sleeper and who the bust are for every team. We pulled average draft position (ADP) from Fantasy Pros on July 13th and will only be looking at guys inside the top 200.
A sleeper is someone who will out-produce their current ADP and ranking
A bust is a player who won’t live up to their ADP and rankings.
Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride– 25, TE2
Marvin Harrison Jr– 35, WR18
James Conner– 58, RB20
Kyler Murray– 84, QB9
Trey Benson– 143, RB45
Michael Wilson– 190, WR75
Sleeper- James Conner
I will never understand the disrespect that James Conner continually gets. I get that he misses games here and there, with last season being the only time he played a full season minus a rest game at the end. Against that is the fact that Conner hasn’t finished lower than RB20 since 2020. Conner is currently going at Rb20, which seems like his absolute floor.
I know people are excited for Trey Benson, but he has never shown anything to make me feel like he will eat into the workload Conner has seen the past two seasons. There is perpetual hope that Kyler Murray runs more and can find a rhythm in the passing game. Both can happen, and Conner will still be fine. He is a lock to get over 200 carries and 50 targets.
Bust- Kyler Murray
I know Kyler has the potential to be a top 5 quarterback. He did it in 2020 and was close in 2019. Last season, he finished as QB10, which is currently where he is being drafted. The 2024 finish makes me worried about him repeating and beating that this year.
We can start with the injury risk, but I would rather focus on what happens if he is healthy. In 2024, with Marvin Harrison on the team and playing a full season, Kyler finished as QB10. He had 541 passing attempts, which was middle of the road. I don’t see that changing. They didn’t add any weapons in the offseason. Does Kyler run more? He has talked about it, but he had 78 rushing attempts last year. Does he jump up to over 100 attempts like he had in 2020? That would be a very big change. I don’t hate Kyler this year. I’m just worried that you are buying him at his eventual finish.
San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffery– 11, RB5
George Kittle– 40, TE3
Jauan Jennings- 62, WR33
Ricky Pearsall– 80, WR41
Brock Purdy– 93, QB12
Brandin Aiyuk– 111, WR51
Isaac Guerendo– 147, WR47
Sleeper- Ricky Pearsall
The 49ers are in flux. Deebo Samuel is now in Washington. Brandin Aiyuk is hurt. What will the offense be this year? I’m placing my chips on Ricky Pearsal as the go-to guy. While others will be all over Jauan Jennings, there are lots of signs pointing to Pearsall.
First, we can’t ignore the fact that Pearsall was shot before the season and missed the first six games of the season. Even when he came back, he was limited. He was also a rookie, so those six games were crucial to his development. We can see what he can be based on the final two games, where Pearsall saw 18 combined targets for 210 yards and two touchdowns. I think he has the potential to repeat part of that this season. Even if Pearsall has a season like Deebo had last year, he will finish right around the WR41 cost. I think Pearsall is better and will be more involved than Deebo was.
Bust- Brock Purdy
I like Brock Purdy. I think he is better than most people give him credit for. He was solid in college, and since taking over in SF, he has proven he should be a starter. The biggest issue I have is that his current value seems overly inflated. Drafting him as the QB12 seems too risky.
Purdy finished as QB6 in 2023 and then QB14 in 2024. Last year, we saw some of the things that are worrisome this year. We saw with a banged-up Deebo Samuel and Brandin Aiyuk missing time, the numbers dropped for Purdy. Yes, he missed Christian McCaffery, who he will be back this season, and he still has George Kittle. Aiyuk looks like he might miss the start of the season, leaving JauanJenningsg and Ricky Pearsall. I think they are good but not great. Purdy seems like a lock to finish in the QB12-17 range with guys like Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud, but it’s more likely he finishes at the lower end than the upper end.
Los Angeles Rams
Puka Nacua– 8, WR5
Kyren Williams– 32, RB12
Davante Adams– 33, WR17
Matthew Stafford– 142, QB24
Jarquez Hunter– 197, RB61
Sleeper- Matthew Stafford
Ageism is real in fantasy football. People want to be all over the young players for their upside and are usually low on older vets who are just consistent. We see this now with Matthew Stafford. Currently going as the QB24, while the only time he has ever finished that low was an injury-shortened season.
The Rams just keep reloading. Yes, they let Cooper Kupp go to Seattle, but they brought in Davante Adams, who, even at 32, is a stud wide receiver. We can look back at 2024, where Stafford finished as QB19, to see why he will outproduce his ADP and be a sleeper. Puke Nacua only played 11 games. Kupp only played 12. A full healthy season from both would have helped Stafford finish within the, if not the top 10, last year. We are talking redraft into dynasty. Getting a guy who will finish top 12 if everyone is healthy at QB24 is a steal.
Bust- Jarquez Hunter
We do this every year. We expect a rookie to come in and take over Kyren Williams’ role. It hasn’t happened, and I don’t expect it to happen this year. Head coach Sean McVay loves using a one-back system, and that back is Kyren Williams.
Jarquez Hunter might not even be the backup this year. Last year, were we all expecting Blake Corum? While Corum wasn’t the guy to take over Kyren’s role, I still think he is better than Hunter. No matter who has the backup role, they won’t see the volume. Yes, being drafted as RB61, it’s hard to truly bust because you are getting them free, but in terms of beating his draft cost, I think it’s slim. Corum finished as RB79 last year. I find it hard to believe a player in rotation with him will finish almost 20 spots higher.
Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba– 30, WR16
Kenneth Walker– 42, RB14
Cooper Kupp– 97, WR48
Zach Charbonnet– 107, RB36
Sam Darnold– 160, QB27
Sleeper- Zach Charbonnet
When Kenneth Walker is healthy, Zach Charbonnet is not worth playing and possibly rostering. The most carries he has received in a game when Walker was playing is 8. That’s not great at all. The big reason you should be scooping up Charbonnet is that Kenneth Walker can never stay healthy.
Walker has missed 10 games over his three-season career. He has dealt with multiple core muscle issues. I don’t believe Walker can stay healthy all season. When he does miss time, Charbonnet has been very good. Six of his eight touchdowns came in weeks that Walker was gone. Even with only getting six games a lead back last season, Charbonnet finished as RB25. He was involved in the passing game, which could be a more needed asset this year with Darnold under center. Seems like a smash buy right now
Bust- Sam Darnold
Once is a fluke, twice is a trend, three times is a pattern. The issue I have with Sam Darnold is that we have a long pattern of him being subpar. Last year was a fluke. He had one of, if not the best, coaching systems and a team with top-end talent. Not only at wide receiver but also offensive line.
Now he comes to Seattle, which has solid weapons at wide receiver and a good running game. The issue is the coaching staff, which will be less the what he had last year. The Seahawks also have a horrible offensive line. Can Darnold hold up under increased pressure and less time to throw? I’m banking on him going back to the pattern we have seen, which is him being a backup.p The Seahawks did draft Jalen Milroe, who has a ton of potential, so a switch could happen if they start looking more towards the future.