Welcome to Overreaction Monday (Fantasy Playoff Preview Edition). This is where we come to take a completely reasonable look at this week’s NFL slate and react in a calm, cool, and collected manner. Just kidding!
It’s Overreaction Monday! Let’s get crazy and see what the guys have to say.
Chase Thornton’s Overreactions
Woody Marks is a Fantasy Playoff Winning Freight Train!!
Over the past seven weeks of the NFL season, Houston Texans running back Woody Marks has the fifth-most rushing attempts in the league. Including his targets in the pass game, he’s seen the fifth-most fantasy opportunities of any running back. Now, they haven’t been efficient touches by any stretch of the imagination. Marks is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry over that timeframe, and only 5.0 yards per reception. He’s found the endzone twice. That’s led to him ranking as the RB24 in 1/2PPR.
But remember how I told you he’s fifth in opportunities over that stretch? Yeah, the four guys ahead of him all rank in the top seven of fantasy running back scoring for that selection of games. We’re talking Christian McCaffrey (RB2), De’Von Achane (RB3), James Cook (RB5), and Bijan Robinson (RB7). That’s some elite company, if only Mark can improve on that scoring efficiency while maintaining the volume.
That second part shouldn’t be too hard. Marks was already dominating snaps in Houston, and has recently dominated the touches as well. After Nick Chubb left Week 14 with a rib injury, Marks played all but one snap the rest of the way. For the week, he led the league on Sunday with 26 carries. Marks has seen over half of the Red Zone opportunities for Houston. And if Chubb misses time, Mark’s goal-line looks will increase. The next two weeks, Houston plays the Cardinals and the Raiders, both excellent fantasy matchups. Week 17 is a different story, but Woody could play a big role in getting you to that point.
Verdict: NOT an Overreaction
Christian Watson is a Fantasy Playoff Winning Freight Train!!
You’ve heard me harp on how opportunities are king in fantasy football. So, obviously, I’m going to have a problem recommending a player ranking 35th in opportunities at his position as a top-12 fantasy playoff start. Right?!
Wrong. And I’ll tell you why, Dear Reader.
Remember how we all were lamenting the fact that Green Bay didn’t have an “alpha” receiver? There supposedly wasn’t a WR1 in the room, Green Bay was going to be a super-spreader offense, and managers would just have to be frustrated. Well, I’ve been saying all along that of all the Packer wideouts, Watson is the only one with special ability. And he’s been proving that since returning from his injury. Since Watson’s return, he ranks as the overall WR9 in 1/2PPR scoring with 88.0 points.
But, but, but, the opportunities, Chase! I know. 35th among wideouts. On a team with the ninth-fewest pass attempts on the year. However, Watson leads the Green Bay pass catchers in opportunities since returning. And he’s been making his opportunities count. Watson is averaging 2.26 fantasy points per opportunity. That’s third among wide receivers with over eight opportunities since Watson’s return. That’s higher than his pre-2025 career average of 1.72. But even that figure would still rank him 18th in the league.
We’re talking about a plug-and-play WR1 you literally got for free. You picked him up hoping he’d be your WR3, and here he is making your lineup decisions easier. After a tough matchup against Denver in Week 15, the Packers’ receivers have a much easier schedule in Chicago and Baltimore. But Watson’s big-play ability can lend itself to defense-defying fantasy scoring despite limited opportunities. Plug him in your lineup and go get that trophy.
Verdict: NOT an overreaction.
GoYAADi’s Overreactions
Bucky Irving is the Skeleton Key
Bucky Irving will be the Skeleton Key in the playoffs because the numbers don’t just align with the opportunity; they define it. Before his absence, Irving averaged over 5.4 yards per touch. Tampa Bay’s recent shift toward lighter boxes and quicker throws is not a coincidence. It is the exact offensive environment that unlocks Irving as a space runner and receiving weapon.
His return clarifies the backfield. Irving does not need fragile goal-line volume to win weeks. Nearly 40 percent of his fantasy production comes through the air, locking in a stable floor while preserving that sweet, sweet upside. He has also been at his best in high-tempo game scripts, where both his yards per carry and yards per route spike. These are the very scripts Tampa Bay is now generating weekly.
The Buccaneers’ backfield has been inefficient without him, and that inefficiency guarantees Irving continues to get high-value touches. This is not theoretical. Over his final three regular-season games in 2024, Irving handled 14 to 16 touches per game, cleared 90 total yards twice, and scored in two of three contests. That is the profile of a player who scales when the stakes rise and exactly how league winners are created in December.
Verdict: There’s some meat on this bone
Bijan Robinson, the polite way to lose a fantasy playoff
Bijan Robinson enters the 2025 fantasy playoffs with more risk than most managers want to admit, and snap share volatility is the red flag that changes everything. When playoff matchups hinge on a single possession, there is no margin for rotating backs in and out. Yet Robinson’s snap rate has swung 36% week to week. Instead of locking in as the unquestioned workhorse, he’s the show horse who remains in the stable on rainy days, a dangerous profile in win-or-go-home formats. Every series he sits is another opportunity lost, and in December, missed snaps turn into missed championships. The playoffs reward certainty, not theoretical upside, and volatile usage is exactly how elite seasons quietly end.
His targets per game have also regressed from an early-season spike into a mid-range RB2 receiving profile. Atlanta’s bottom-tier offensive pace further restricts total play volume, meaning fewer snaps, fewer drives, and fewer scoring opportunities to offset lost touchdown equity. Even when Bijan touches the ball, his 2.65% touchdown per carry rate has lagged behind other elite backs with similar workloads. That combination (volatile snaps, reduced red zone control, declining receiving volume, slow team pace, and weakened scoring efficiency) is how a regular-season superstar becomes a playoff washout.
Verdict: Overreaction, please!
Ty Recino’s Overreactions
Jacoby Brissett will FEED FAMILIES
It doesn’t matter who the opponent is; quarterback Jacoby Brissett is quietly balling out. Since taking over starting duties in week 6, Brissett is QB2. This includes some tough matchups against the Jaguars, Rams, and Seahawks. I don’t care that the Cardinals play the Texans next week; I am starting Jacoby Brissett every week. Over the last 3 weeks, the Cardinals have passed a league-high over 70% of the time. They have nearly double the number of pass attempts than rushing attempts this season. The Cardinals might get blown out, might keep games close, but the constant is that they are going to pass the ball, and Brissett is going to rack up the stat sheet. He is a top-5 quarterback for the playoffs and will be a league-winner.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction
Lower expectations for Jonathan Taylor for the playoffs
“Dad, how good was Jonathan Taylor through the first 10 weeks of the 2025 season?” To answer that, he was absolutely incredible, he had 6 games over 29 fantasy points-per-game, 6!!! He was the #1 overall fantasy player and was putting up generational numbers. For the last 5 weeks, Jonathan Taylor has returned to Earth, and so have the Indianapolis Colts. Over the last 3 games, Taylor has failed to break the 100-yard mark or finish as a top-10 running back. The road ahead is not easy, as matchups against the Seahawks, Jaguars, 49ers, and Texans again are on the docket. Taylor is also going to be without quarterback Daniel Jones, and this offense was clearly missing him when Riley Leonard was playing. The Colts should lean on Taylor heavily, but they can’t count on him alone; they need a quarterback to move the ball, and they don’t have that. You shouldn’t bench Taylor, but he has simmered down already and will be even worse now. He’s not a top-5, even top-10 back for the fantasy playoffs. He’s a mid-tier RB2 for the rest of the season, and it’s a major bummer if you’ve had him or traded for him heading into the playoffs.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction