Welcome to Overreaction Monday (Week 11). This is where we come to take a completely reasonable look at this week’s NFL slate and react in a calm, cool, and collected manner. Just kidding!
It’s Overreaction Monday! Let’s get crazy and see what the guys have to say.
Chase Thornton’s Overreactions
It’s a Bryce Young Breakthrough!! Hallelujah!!
Bryce Young had a hell of a Week 11. Young threw for 448 yards (a career high by 120 yards) and three touchdowns as Carolina won for the fifth time in seven games. The second-best fantasy game score of his career landed him at QB2 for the week, headed into Monday’s action. It was the third time this season that Young had three touchdown passes in a game. This was the best passing game of Young’s career, and far better than anything he put up during his torrid second half of 2024 (when he was QB7 in points per game over the final six weeks). This is it! This is the moment when Bryce Young arrives as a fantasy star!
We’ve written about Young in this space before. And I’m sure more than a few of you saw Ol’ Chase writing about his guy Bryce and thought, “Here we go again.” But even I, the world’s biggest fantasy advocate for Young (for reasons neither I, nor math, nor history can really explain), have to pump the brakes here. Yes, it’s impressive that he did this against a Falcons defense that had given up the fewest passing yards in the league. And despite being sacked five times. But as good as this game was for him passing, it was more of the same this season as far as rushing. And that’s the problem, fantasy-wise.
During his run at the end of last season, Young averaged four rushes for just over 25 yards per game. This season, he’s averaged only 8.3 yards on just over two runs per contest. And if that wasn’t bad enough, he only has one rushing score this season. During his 2024 hot streak, he scored five rushing touchdowns in six games. That supplied a lot of the fantasy juice I was hoping to see more of this season. But it hasn’t been there, and until it is, managers can’t count on frequent, freaky passing performances like this one from Young.
Verdict: Overreaction
Emanuel Wilson will be a league winner!!
Josh Jacobs is the RB7 overall and in points per game. He sports one of the highest rush shares among backs in the league and is fifth overall in rushing attempts. Matt LaFleur has shown a stubborn determination to ram the run game down our throats, no matter how effective or ineffective it may be at any given moment. Jacobs left Sunday’s win over the Giants early with a knee injury. In stepped backup Emanuel Wilson, who had 49 total yards and a touchdown on 12 total opportunities. That was good for 13.4 half-PPR points and an RB17 ranking headed into Monday Night Football. As the new, for-now starter in this offense, Emanuel Wilson is obviously set up to be a league winner!
No. Just… no. For one, the Packers don’t have an overly friendly running back schedule the rest of the way. They face Denver in Week 15- not the defense I want to be rolling out a backup running back against early in the fantasy playoffs. For two, Jacobs is a rare breed in today’s NFL, in that he’s one of the last true workhorses. Only six players rank among the top-12 running backs in snap percentage, rush share, and target share. Jacobs is one of them. No one player is going to replace that, in all likelihood. Even if Wilson takes the lion’s share of what’s there, rumors are that former second-round pick Marshawn Lloyd is nearing a return from injury. It’ll be a split workload regardless. But most importantly, LaFleur said in his postgame presser that the Packers don’t think Jacobs has a season-ending injury.
As a Packer fan, I’m glad this isn’t an issue. As a fantasy manager without a ton of Jacobs anyway, I’m indifferent. As a guy who’s looking to upgrade my roster in preparation for the season’s stretch run, I’m not getting my hopes up for major impact from Wilson here.
Verdict: Overreaction
GoYAADi’s Overreactions
CMC was the 1.01 all along…
Boom! If you didn’t draft Christian McCaffrey with the #1 overall pick in your 2025 fantasy draft, you might as well have handed your trophy to someone else. The ultimate dual-threat machine who’s rewriting the RB handbook and making fantasy owners look like geniuses. McCaffrey showed up in a big way against the Arizona Cardinals, dominating with over 120 total yards from scrimmage and scoring a Jonathan Taylor-esque three touchdowns.
In 2025, McCaffrey has astonishingly more receiving yards than rushing yards, underlining his utility as a full-blown offensive weapon. In fantasy football, value is king, and Christian McCaffrey brings value by the truckload. If your league mates were sleeping on this fact, you got a steal. Because while so many backs are tied to one or two dimensions (rushing attempts, red-zone carries), McCaffrey is hitting both sides of the ledger. In a world of one-dimensional fantasy picks, he’s the multi-tool dominating tool belt.
In short, drafting Christian McCaffrey first overall in 2025 wasn’t just justified, it was mandatory for any serious fantasy contender.
Verdict: Not an overreaction
The Jameis we deserve (QB15), not the Jameis we want (QB1)
Let’s get one thing straight: Winston’s fantasy value has always hinged almost entirely on volume. We’re talking massive passing attempts, gargantuan yardage, and little else. Take his 2019 season when he slung 626 passes, racked up 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns, but paired that with 30 interceptions. Every time Winston has risen in fantasy standings, it’s been because his coach asked him to throw it ninety-eleven times, and the offense supported that extreme usage. Without that usage, he tends to regress into mediocrity.
Flash-forward to now: Winston lands in the New York Giants offense, a system that will not hand him the kind of attempt volume or pass-centric script required to produce fantasy fireworks. The Giants are not engineered to throw 600+ times with a low-quality supporting cast and a middling offensive scheme. In his 2024 stint with the Cleveland Browns, Winston threw 296 passes across 12 games (but only seven starts) and produced 2,121 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 12 picks.
In fantasy football, you need both floor and upside. Winston gives you neither in this context. He’ll have erratic output, a low ceiling in this system, and the ever-looming risk of turnovers. So if you’re counting on Jameis to carry your fantasy team from here on out…don’t.
Verdict: Don’t start Jameis in a single QB league
Ty Recino’s Overreactions
Justin Herbert Struggles….sign of things to come?
It was a career low for Justin Herbert as he only had 81 yards passing against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars don’t necessarily have the best defense, but losing Joe Alt & Rashawn Slater for the season was apparent. Josh Hines-Allen pressured Herbert, and he struggled; the entire offense struggled. Looking at the rest of the season, the Chargers have matchups against top-tier defenses like the Chiefs, Eagles, & the Texans. Herbert has been great all year, but down the stretch, it might be worth trading him away before your league’s deadline. In dynasty leagues, he’s worth buying low as his performance struggles more.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction
Jacory Croskey-Merritt is Near Unrosterable
In weeks 1-6, Jacory Croskey-Merritt was 5th in yards per attempt among running backs with more than 20 attempts. During that stretch, he averaged 5.7 yards per carry with one 100+ yard game under his belt. He averaged 11+ fantasy points per game in this same stretch. He’s averaged 2.9 yards per carry and under 4 fantasy points per game. The lead back role for Washington has shifted to Chris Rodriguez Jr. This past week against the Miami Dolphins, a team that is awful against the run, JCM had less than 30 yards on 9 attempts. His workload has decreased, and his performance has as well. I’m dropping him in all redraft leagues.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction