Welcome to Overreaction Monday (Week 12). This is where we come to take a completely reasonable look at this week’s NFL slate and react in a calm, cool, and collected manner. Just kidding!
It’s Overreaction Monday! Let’s get crazy and see what the guys have to say.
Chase Thornton’s Overreactions
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is awesome sauce and the best fantasy WR of all time!!
Jaxon Smith-Njigba reached his Platonic form in Week 12. The third-year wide receiver caught eight of ten targets for 167 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He even added a four-yard rush. It all culminated in a 33.1 half-PPR-point day. It was a coupling of volume and efficiency that was statistically indistinguishable from fantasy perfection. He’s on pace to be the first player ever with 2,000 receiving yards in a season. His season will obviously go down as the best in wide receiver history, right?
Wrong, actually.
While the man known as “JSN” is having a monster fantasy year, he’s not actually doing anything unprecedented fantasy-wise. He’s averaging 19.5 half-PPR points per game. That’s actually a full half of a point less than Ja’Marr Chase averaged in 2024. The “problem”- if you want to call it that- is the very efficiency we saw on display in Tennessee. He only projects out to somewhere around 123 catches. That would only be tied for the eighth-best mark since 2018, and isn’t even on pace to lead the league this season. His projected 11 touchdowns are another source of lost points. Chase led the league with 17 last season. Adams is on pace for at least 18. Enjoy JSN’s excellent return on investment this season, but don’t get carried away.
Verdict: Overreaction
Michael Wilson should be a starting fantasy wide receiver the rest of the season!! He can’t be put back in the box!!
Michael Wilson had his second straight monster game as the Arizona Cardinals’ top wide receiver. One week after catching 15 of 18 targets for a career-high 185 yards, Wilson posted a 10/15/118 line in Week 12. It’s been a pretty nice little stretch for anyone who picked him up following news of Marvin Harrison Jr’s appendectomy. But actually, that first sentence should have read “Jacoby Brissett’s top wide receiver”. It’s been the Wilson show at wideout for two weeks, but for the two games prior, Harrison posted his first back-to-back performances with double-digit targets. Interestingly, this production at wide receiver hasn’t come at star tight end Trey McBride’s expense.
And therein lies the hope and truth of the Wilson phenomenon. Brissett has been a revelation for the Cardinals’ pass attack. There’s now enough volume and efficiency to support multiple pass catchers with fantasy juice. Wilson went from averaging 3.6 targets per game and 2.89 yards per target in Weeks 1-5 to averaging five targets a game and 8.95 yards per target. The per target number jumps to over 9.00 after the past two weeks. Wilson has shown the ability to be a force on the field and in fantasy. He’s probably the top wideout for at least another game or two as Harrison recovers. And with Brissett at the helm, Wilson should be able to maintain at least FLEX if not WR2 appeal the rest of the season.
Verdict: NOT an Overreaction
GoYAADi’s Overreactions
Shedeur Sanders IS the answer at QB for Cleveland
Shedeur Sanders walked onto the field like a quarterback who already owned the keys to Cleveland’s future. The box score alone tells the story: 209 yards through the air, a touchdown delivered with veteran poise, and a willingness to push the ball downfield that this franchise has been starving for. Eleven completions on twenty attempts isn’t flashy, but it was purposeful, confident, and aggressively on-schedule.
What mattered even more was everything happening around him. The Browns played for Shedeur. The offensive line fired off the ball like they were guarding a franchise. The receivers ran routes with snap, sold breaks harder, and fought through contact because they could feel the spark under center. A team doesn’t rally like that unless they believe the guy taking the snap is worth fighting for.
This was the arrival of something legendary in Cleveland, 2Legendary perhaps. A quarterback with juice, moxie, presence, and the type of early efficiency you can build an offense around. Shedeur Sanders announced himself as the answer Cleveland has been searching for.
Verdict: It physically hurts to admit this is an overreaction
John Metchie III is a WR II
John Metchie III just delivered the kind of performance that forces a rest-of-season recalibration, especially with Garrett Wilson going on IR and Tyrod Taylor taking over at quarterback. His line is exactly what WR2 roles are built on: steady volume, strong efficiency, and scoring opportunities. 6 catches on 7 targets for 65 yards and a touchdown with a 10.8 yards-per-catch mark shows he wasn’t living on gimmicks. It was an offense to choose him.
What makes this surge even more impressive is the path he took to get here. Metchie tore his ACL in the 2021 SEC Championship Game, then missed his entire rookie season with the Texans after a diagnosis of acute promyelocytic leukemia. If you were curious, promyelocytic leukemia is a blood cancer where the bone marrow makes too many immature white blood cells. I had to look it up.
Metchie is stepping into a vacuum of opportunity. Seven targets in his breakout game weren’t an accident, and Metchie is being positioned as a go-to option. Given the usage, the clean bill of health, and the sudden opening atop the depth chart, John Metchie III is absolutely a WR2 for the rest of the season.
Verdict: Overreaction, closer to WR IV
Ty Recino’s Overreactions
Jordan Love is worth dropping
http://gty.im/2247567458.
After finishing as QB1 in week 8, Jordan Love has put up 10 points or less in 3 of the last 4 games. In week 9, Tucker Kraft went down with an injury, which makes sense as to why Jordan Love and the Packers offense have struggled to get things going. The schedule is favorable ahead, but I’m not confident that it’s going to be their offense that helps them win games. If Josh Jacobs does return this year, it’ll be in a limited fashion, which should still help Love, but he won’t be getting a true playmaker. I’d rather stream quarterbacks each week than have Love take up a roster spot.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction
JJ McCarthy makes the entire Minnesota Offense a Fantasy Risk
Since JJ McCarthy has been back in Week 9, the Minnesota Offense has taken a huge hit. Unfortunately, without Carson Wentz, the Vikings are struggling to pass the ball. McCarthy is not the guy in Minnesota. He has two elite pass catchers in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who are putting up duds because McCarthy does not know how to throw the ball. From weeks 9-12, Justin Jefferson is currently outside the top-30 wideouts, and Jordan Addison is outside the top-70. It’s tough when you drafted Jefferson as high as you did and he’s performing the way he is. Moving forward, Jefferson is a WR2, but Addison will only be startable if the matchup is very favorable; otherwise, he needs to be benched. Aaron Jones he’s playing like a top-15 back, but performing outside the top-20. With limited redzone opportunities, he can’t move up to that top-15 level. The rest of the season, the Vikings offense is one to avoid in daily fantasy formats and be cautious about in other formats.
Verdict: Not an Overreaction