In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data is more prevalent now that we have a larger sample size of games. This especially holds as we head towards the playoffs.
Here’s Week 12’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the San Francisco 49ers are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Bryce Young) while the Green Bay Packers are not (bad matchup for JJ McCarthy).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Joe Flacco, CIN
Flacco wasn’t able to recreate the magic from his first tilt against the Steelers in last week’s rematch, but he is primed for a bounce back performance against the New England Patriots. In the last three weeks, they have allowed 21.7 fantasy points per game to Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, and Michael Penix. Even without Ja’Marr Chase in the lineup due to suspension, Flacco seems to be a reasonable streaming option in Week 12.
RB: Aaron Jones, MIN
JJ McCarthy faces the toughest matchup of the week for quarterbacks, so it would be wise for the Vikings to rely on their wily veteran in the backfield. In the last three weeks, the Packers have allowed 24.2 fantasy points to opposing running backs, especially ones with receiving prowess. In the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 12 receptions. Given that Jordan Mason is not a pass catching threat, Jones could be a high end RB2 in this pivotal division matchup.
WR: Chris Olave, NO
Atlanta has had a lot of bad luck lately. Their quarterback and star wide receiver have been lost to injury, and their defense, which was a strength at the start of the season has turned into a bit of a pumpkin. In the last three weeks, the Falcons have allowed 41.9 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the second most in the league. This is a huge gap from their season average, which shows them as the 15th best matchup. Olave was going to be in your lineup anyway, but I love him and Juwan Johnson in DFS this week.
TE: Tyler Warren, IND
The Colts will be rested coming out of the bye and will be facing a motivated Chiefs team who is looking to keep pace in the competitive AFC playoff race. Kansas City is best attacked at the tight end position, as evidenced by the 16.7 fantasy points per game allowed in the last three weeks. You have to imagine the Chiefs will be going all out to stop Jonathan Taylor, paving the way for a big Warren week.
Fricks
QB: Tyrod Taylor, NYJ
I shouldn’t have to say this one out loud, but don’t even think about it. On the season, the Ravens have been the 14th best matchup for opposing QBs, but they have been locked in as of late, only allowing 9.2 fantasy points per game in the last three weeks. Add in the fact that he will be missing his best receiving option in Garrett Wilson, and this is just a recipe for disaster. This is not the matchup to get cute with.
RB: Kenneth Walker, SEA
Outside of being Jonathan Taylor-ed, the Tennessee Titans have proved to be better at stopping the run than the pass in recent weeks. While on the season, they have allowed the 9th most fantasy points to running backs, they have been a more middling matchup in the last three weeks, only allowing 17.2 points per game. In the last two weeks, neither of their opponents’ running backs topped 10 points as a collective. Given the split nature of the Seahawks backfield, Walker might not be able to repeat his Week 11 success.
WR: Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG
It doesn’t matter if Jaxson Dart or Jameis Winston are slangin’ the rock, you’ll want to avoid Giants pass catchers this week. Detroit has been lockdown against wide receivers, only allowing on average 16.4 fantasy points per game in the last three weeks. Their matchups have been exclusively against the NFC East who boasts some of the best talent at that position in the NFL. Wan’Dale has been a waiver gem, but you’ll want to consider alternative options in Week 12 if possible.
TE: Colston Loveland, CHI
After being manhandled by the Bengals’ quick passing attack in Week 7, the Steelers made some significant personnel changes in hopes of solidifying their defense. It has paid off tremendously. The Steelers have gone from a must start against defense for TEs to a must avoid, only allowing 9.9 fantasy points per game to the position in the last three weeks. With Cole Kmet back in the lineup and the tough matchup for the Steelers, don’t chase points with Loveland. Find an alternative option.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.