In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data is more prevalent now that we have a larger sample size of games. This especially holds as we head towards the playoffs.
Here’s Week 13’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Jacoby Brissett) while the Green Bay Packers are not (bad matchup for Jared Goff).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Dak Prescott, GB
Turkey Day fireworks? You betcha. Now, you might be looking at the Kansas City Chiefs and their 20th most allowed points to opposing quarterbacks on the season. However, in the last three weeks, they’ve been the 8th best matchup allowing 19.4 fantasy points per game. A decent chunk of this is due to playing Josh Allen in that timeframe, but I expect the Dallas offense to stay red hot making Prescott a must start in this marquee matchup.
RB: Woody Marks, HOU
The Colts have gone from a lower end matchup for RBs (20th on the season), to a must start matchup as they are allowing the 6th most fantasy points per game to running backs in the last three weeks. This has primarily come by way of receiving work, where they have allowed 15 receptions in the last three weeks to the running back position. Marks runs 3 times more routes than his counterpart Nick Chubb, making him a high end RB2 against the Colts.
WR: John Metchie, NYJ
.”Stop trying to make Metch a thing, it’s never going to happen.” Well, it’s happening folks. Metchie has surfaced as a reliable underneath option for Tyrod Taylor while Garrett Wilson remains on IR, and Adonai Mitchell takes the top off of defenses. In this week’s matchup, they open as a 2.5 point underdog to a depleted Falcons team who has not been able to keep similarly skilled offenses (New Orleans and Carolina) at bay. Metchie will be a solid flex play, especially if the negative game script surfaces as expected.
TE: Zach Ertz, WAS
I can’t lie… I fully expected Ertz to fall off the map once Jayden Daniels was put on injured reserve, but ole reliable continues to be a startable fantasy asset. He has had exactly 4 receptions in each of the last 4 weeks and will be taking on a Denver Broncos team that has allowed 17.3 points to tight ends in the last 3 weeks. Could he find the end zone for the first time in over a month? This feels like the matchup to do it!
Fricks
QB: Jared Goff, DET
It has become commonplace to start Jared Goff “at home in the dome” during his time in Detroit. However, you might want to reconsider this notion against the Green Bay Packers. They have only allowed 7.8 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks in the last 3 weeks and have only allowed 62.1 fantasy points to all positions combined, both the lowest marks in the league. They haven’t allowed 20 points to a QB since Week 4. The defenses are gonna be tighter than your pants after that second slice of pie, so maybe Goff should stay off the menu this week.
RB: Kareem Hunt, KC
Hunt turned back the clock last week against Indianapolis with 104 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 30 carries. He also hauled in 3 receptions for 26 yards, making him RB8 on the week. I don’t expect a similar output against the Cowboys as they have been on a tear since acquiring Quinnen Williams. In the last three weeks, they have only allowed 14.5 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs despite matchups against Saquon Barkley and Ashton Jeanty. Running is not an option, so expect the Chiefs to rely on Mahomes.
WR: Nico Collins, HOU
If the rib injury didn’t push you away from Collins this week, consider the fact that Indianapolis has only allowed 25.2 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers in the last 3 weeks. I would expect Sauce Gardner to stick with Collins for the majority of snaps this week, so it should be tough sledding. The 24th best defense against wide receivers on the year has been the 9th toughest matchup in the last three weeks.
TE: Chig Okonkwo, TEN
Okonkwo was a popular sleeper pick to start the season due to his YAC ability and lack of target competition in Tennessee. With Cam Ward having his best game of his young career last week, could it be a sign of things to come for the Titans? The safe bet is no, but if they were to continue this offensive upswing, it won’t likely be because of the tight end room. Jacksonville has been the second best matchup to tight ends on the season, but are a more middling matchup in recent weeks (15th).
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.