In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data is more prevalent now that we have a larger sample size of games. This especially holds as we head towards the playoffs.
Here’s Week 13’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Tyler Shough) while the New Orleans Saints are not (bad matchup for Baker Mayfield).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Matthew Stafford, LAR
They say it’s a young man’s game, but Matt Stafford is having a hell of a season. His next matchup on his march towards the MVP trophy is the Arizona Cardinals, the 13th toughest matchup on the season to opposing QBs. However, in the last three weeks, they have given up the 7th most points to opposing QBs. Couple in the fact that Kyren Williams is banged up, and this could be a huge output for Stafford in this pivotal divisional matchup.
RB: Bam Knight, ARI
Bam Knight has filled in admirably as a lead back in the last few weeks due to Arizona’s knack for a RB carousel combined with a myriad of injuries. According to Fantasy Points Data, Knight has averaged 14.1 expected fantasy points per game in the last two weeks as he’s doubled the number of attempts counterpart Michael Carter has received. I do not expect Trey Benson to play this week, which makes Knight a viable RB2 against a Rams defense who has allowed 23.5 fantasy points per game in the last 3 weeks to running backs.
WR: Adonai Mitchell, NYJ
Back to back weeks with the anemic New York Jets offense as a pick? You betcha! We had the right team, wrong guy, but we won’t get fooled again. Mitchell had a breakout performance in Week 13 racking up 24.2 fantasy points on the way to a WR6 finish against Atlanta. The Jets play at home against Miami (who has not fared well in cold weather games under Mike McDaniel). The once leaky run defense has firmed up, but the secondary has struggled, allowing 36.6 fantasy points to the likes of New Orleans, Washington, and Buffalo.
TE: Gunnar Helm, TEN
Helm has seen 19 targets in the last three games and has seemingly become a security blanket for Cam Ward. He has one TD on the season, and Cleveland might provide an opportunity for him to score a second. In the last three weeks, Cleveland has allowed 17.1 fantasy points per game to opposing TEs. Helm may not have the star power of Kittle, Bowers, and Andrews, but it’s tough to ignore his consistent opportunities.
Fricks
QB: Daniel Jones, IND
Daniel Jones’s reign as fantasy darling at the beginning of the season may have come to an end, but he has been a consistent QB in Superflex formats. This week, he takes on the Jacksonville Jaguars, looking to put some more space in the Colts’ AFC South lead. Jacksonville’s season long averages make them appear as a plus matchup (9th most points allowed), however, in the last three weeks, they’ve been a bottom 4 matchup. Jones is best suited on your bench, preferably with his leg propped up so it can heal.
RB: Kenneth Walker, SEA
Walker seemed to turn the corner in the last few weeks with multiple top 20 finishes after Seattle’s bye week. Last week, the Seahawks were on cruise control, and Walker owners’ eyes collectively twitched as they saw another touchdown vultured by Zach Charbonnet. This week, the Seahawks are on the road facing an Atlanta defense only allowing 16.4 fantasy points in the last three weeks to running backs. Expect Seattle to do most of its damage in the air.
WR: Zay Flowers, BAL
Fading Zay against the second best WR matchup on the season??? I’m just saying to temper expectations. The Steelers have been a much more average matchup only allowing the 18th most points to WRs in the last three weeks. Historically, the Steelers have done great at containing Lamar Jackson, especially at home. In his three games against Pittsburgh, Flowers has averaged 4 receptions, so he’d likely need a touchdown to be fantasy viable.
TE: T.J. Hockenson, MIN
Hockenson was one of the few bright spots in the shellacking the Vikings endured against the Seahawks finishing with a season high 6 receptions for 59 yards. This week, Minnesota is at home against Washington, who has been porous across the board. However, they are fairing slightly better against TEs allowing 12.7 points per game in the last three weeks. No rocking out with your Hock out this week, folks.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.