In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data is more prevalent now that we have a larger sample size of games. This especially holds as we head towards the playoffs.
Here’s Week 16’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Tennessee Titans are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Gardner Minshew) while the Seattle Seahawks are not (bad matchup for Matthew Stafford).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Trevor Lawrence, JAX
Dare I say that Trevor Lawrence is finally living up to the potential that had him taken 1st overall in the 2021 draft? With multiple TDs in each of his last 4 games, including a 6 TD (5 passing, 1 rushing) performance last week, Lawrence looks to continue his hot streak at home against Denver. You might think I’m crazy considering that Denver is well known for their defense and touting the 7th toughest matchup to QBs on the season, but in the last 3 weeks, they have been the 12th easiest matchup allowing 18.2 points per game.
RB: James Cook, BUF
There’s probably not a world where you’d be sitting Cook this week, but you can absolutely start him with confidence. On the surface, it may not look like an inspiring matchup as Cook takes on the Cleveland Browns who have been a stingy defense against the run on the season (20th most points allowed), but in the last 3 weeks, they have allowed the 5th most points to running backs. Expect the Bills to unleash Cook in the Dawg Pound on Sunday.
WR: Mike Evans, TB
A 1,000 yard season is still on the table, eh? Mike Evans had a vintage performance last week against Atlanta, racking up 132 yards in his long anticipated return. After seeing 12 targets in a limited snap count, we can expect to see an expanded role against the Carolina Panthers who have allowed the 8th most points to WRs in the last 3 weeks. Don’t let the 13th toughest matchup on the season trick you into leaving Evans on the bench.
TE: Jake Ferguson, DAL
The back half of the season has been less explosive for Ferguson compared to his hot start in September, but he has quietly had 4 or more receptions in 5 of his last 6 games. The Cowboys are matched up with the Chargers this week, who have allowed the 9th most points to TEs in the last 3 weeks. Granted, they played against a bit of a gauntlet taking on Kelce, Goedert, and Bowers in that span, but 18 points allowed per game is something that cannot be ignored given the state of the TE position.
Fricks
QB: Joe Burrow, CIN
It’s tough being Joe Burrow. He has enough money to buy a Batmoblie, wears the freshest clothes, eats at the chillest restaurants, and hangs out with the hottest people on the planet. He also has the privilege of taking on the Miami Dolphins. The Steelers made light work of them on Thursday night, but Miami has flipped the script from being a porous defense to being more lockdown, especially during their four game win streak. They have not allowed a QB to score 20 fantasy points since Week 9. This isn’t a cry to sit Burrow, but this is more of roster construction conversation as Miami has been the 7th toughest matchup in the last 3 weeks.
RB: Michael Carter, ARI
Carter is the Waiver Wire add of the week after an injury to Bam Knight in last week’s game against Houston. It has been a roller coaster of a season for Arizona running backs, and even if Carter does take the lead role this week, tread lightly. In the last 3 weeks, Atlanta has allowed 15.5 points to RBs which makes them the 4th toughest matchup in this pivotal Week 16 matchup. Expect the Cardinals to continue to lean on fantasy football icon, Jacoby Brissett, in this tilt.
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET
We went from worrying that we had lost St. Brown for the fantasy playoffs due to a low ankle sprain to watching him carve up the Rams to the tune of 13 receptions, 164 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Similar to the Joe Burrow discourse, this is not a matter of starting or sitting St. Brown, but more of a discussion on how to manage your roster around him. The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the 3rd toughest matchup for WRs in the last 3 weeks, only allowing 15.2 points per game. St. Brown will likely be matched up with Joey Porter Jr. for most of the afternoon, who is emerging as a premier cornerback. It will be great to watch these two greats battle it out.
TE: Theo Johnson, NYG
Johnson has been a nice breakout story this season. The second year TE currently sits at TE13 as we enter the heart of the fantasy playoffs. Despite the lack of receiving options in New York, Johnson has caught exactly 3 passes in 7 of the last 8 games. You may be tempted to start him this week against the Vikings who have been a middling matchup to TEs this year. However, in the last 3 weeks, they have only allowed 6.4 points per game to the position, making them the worst matchup on paper for TEs.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.