In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis in Pick or Frick? Week 5.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data becomes more prevalent as we have a larger sample size of games, but I still like to leverage it to eliminate the noise of early-season matchups sooner rather than later.
Here’s Week 5’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (obvious busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the Dallas Cowboys are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Justin Fields) while the Minnesota Vikings are not (bad matchup for Dillon Gabriel).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Kyler Murray, ARI
The Titans are listed as the 23rd best team against QBs on the season, but have been a Top 12 defense to stream against in the last three games. Even CJ Stroud was palatable from a fantasy perspective against them.
RB: Omarion Hampton, LAC
The Commanders did well to hold off the Giants in Week 1 and dismantled the Raiders in Week 3, resulting in a season-long RB ranking of the 22nd-best matchup. However, they were Swiss cheese against Atlanta, allowing over 200 yards and three touchdowns. Given the lack of other options in the RB room, Hampton is a must-start.
WR: Jordan Addison, MIN
On the season, the Browns are giving up 31.1 points in PPR formats, which is the 13th-worst matchup. However, teams are attacking through the air to avoid the feared defensive front in the last three weeks, resulting in them being the 11th-best matchup for receivers in the last three weeks. I expect Addison to find his groove this week after a strong start against Pittsburgh.
TE: Travis Kelce, KC
Lots of people have (rightly claimed) that Mr. Swift-Kelce has looked a bit washed this season. However, he has a good opportunity to turn back the clock against the Jaguars. In the last 3 weeks, the standout defense has been a Top 12 play for TEs despite being a middling matchup on the year.
Fricks
QB: Dak Prescott, DAL
After giving up 4 touchdowns to Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, the Jets have settled in on defense. In the last three weeks, the New York Jets have only allowed 15.4 points per game to the QB position against stiff competition (Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Tua Tagovailoa). Dak should have his hands full despite a big performance against the Packers.
RB: Bucky Irving/Rachaad White, TB
While the Seahawks appear to be a middling matchup (14th best), a lot of this is because they got to play against Christian McCaffrey in Week 1. Since then, they have only allowed 19 PPG to RBs. This doesn’t mean I would sit Irving (or White if Irving is unable to play), but you should temper expectations on their output.
WR: Keon Coleman, BUF
The Patriots appear to be a middling matchup based on season-long trends, but they have turned up the defensive intensity against the pass in the last two weeks. On the season, they are allowing the 14th most points to WRs, but are only allowing the 21st most points in the last three games. Christian Gonzalez‘s return should only further improve the Patriots’ defensive unit.
TE: Dalton Schultz, HOU
Baltimore shows as a Top 10 option on the season, but they have been a bottom-half matchup in the last three weeks (17th-best matchup). Don’t let the apps fool you into playing Schultz.
Alternate Scoring Settings
Points Allowed Differential from Average
