In the NFL, performance can drastically change on a weekly basis due to injuries, schematics, and even weather. Yet, most fantasy football platforms still guide users with season-long matchup data that can be wildly misleading. Given the razor-thin margins between winning and losing in fantasy, I sought a more up-to-date view of matchup analysis.
A Closer Look
The charts below look past the season-long noise. Rather than relying on a distorted season-long average, I have consolidated fantasy points allowed data from a team’s previous three games played to get a much clearer picture of their current performance trends.
A prime example of this can be seen in 2023. The Miami Dolphins put up a whopping 70 points against the Denver Broncos. De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert exploded for eight touchdowns and 375 yards of total offense combined. From a season-long perspective, that outburst would skew Denver’s ranking against RBs for the entire year. However, as the Broncos entered Week 15 (Fantasy Football Playoffs), they were actually the 6th toughest matchup for RBs based on their last three games, only allowing 18.4 PPG in that span.
The Data
This data becomes more prevalent as we have a larger sample size of games, but I still like to leverage it to eliminate the noise of early-season matchups sooner rather than later.
Here’s Week 9’s Fantasy Points Allowed Trends to help you spot the Picks (hidden gems) and avoid the Fricks (potential busts) to dominate your matchups.
How to Read the Chart
This data is showing the number of points allowed, so if you’re looking at QBs, the New York Giants are allowing a lot of PPG in the last 3 weeks (good matchup for Brock Purdy/Mac Jones) while the Houston Texans are not (bad matchup for Bo Nix).
- Blue = good matchup, White = average matchup, Red = bad matchup.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The teams in the Prev 3 Opponents column are the teams that the team on the left has played in the last 3 weeks.
- The team in the Opponent column is who plays the team on the left this week.
- The team in the Next Opponent column is who plays the team on the left next week.
- Teams with a bye in the last 3 weeks will look back at a 4th week to capture 3 games’ worth of data.
- Please keep in mind that D/ST Data will likely be different due to varied league settings.
Picks
QB: Aaron Rodgers, PIT
The Colts boast the best record in football, while the Steelers seem in a bit of a freefall. If they are going to have any chance of pulling off the upset on Sunday, Aaron Rodgers will have to turn back the clock and put up a vintage performance to keep up with MVP candidate, Jonathan Taylor. In the last three weeks, the Colts have allowed 20.5 points to opposing quarterbacks, making them a top five matchup. He will be a viable streaming option in Week 9.
RB: Tyjae Spears, TEN
The Chargers have been leaky against the run in the last three weeks, allowing 28.2 points per game (5th best matchup). Spears led the Titans in snaps and could continue to see an increased workload as he shows to be the more effective back compared to his counterpart Tony Pollard. His pass catching ability should help keep him relevant even with a negative game script looming. I like Spears as a Flex play in this Week 9 matchup.
WR: Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG
Wan’dale has had at least 7 targets in three of the last four games. He didn’t have his best outing against a motivated Eagles team hungry for revenge, but I expect him to find his footing against San Francisco who has allowed 38.5 points per game to opposing wide receivers in the last three weeks. San Francisco’s most commonly deployed defensive scheme is Cover 3, so look for Wan’Dale to be a PPR machine as he attacks this defense in the flat.
TE: George Kittle, SF
This could be the week that Kittle reminds everyone why he is still one of the best TEs, if not the best TE, in the game. He had a solid outing against Houston, but he should absolutely smash against the Giants. The Giants have allowed 19 points per game to opposing tight ends in the last three weeks, and if Brock Purdy is able to return to form, it will only further boost Kittle’s stock. He’s my TE1 for this week.
Fricks
QB: Tua Tagovailoa, MIA
The Dolphins are riding high after a huge win against the Falcons. Tua was QB8 due to his 4 touchdown performance. Do not expect this to continue against the Ravens. Looking at season long metrics, the Ravens are the 4th most advantageous matchup for QBs. However, in the last three weeks, the Ravens have only allowed 17 points to opposing QBs making them a middling matchup instead of a surefire streaming option.
RB: Bijan Robinson, ATL
The Falcons are in shambles right now. With Kirk Cousins at the helm last week, they got bullied by the Miami Dolphins. Bijan only managed 51 total yards in what was supposed to be a smash matchup. Could he be in line for another dud? The Patriots have only allowed 16.5 points per game in the last three weeks to opposing running backs. It will take a lot of receptions to live up to his expectations for the week. Construct the rest of your lineup accordingly!
WR: Rome Odunze, CHI
With the combination of Caleb Williams on the struggle bus and Cincinnati’s weakness against the run, I think it’s going to be difficult for Rome to have a “get right game” without a home run play. The Bengals have given up only 23.3 points in the last three weeks to WRs making them a bottom five matchup for the week. Rome will still be a low end WR2 in Week 9, but his upside will be capped by the limited opportunities.
TE: Tucker Kraft, GB
The vibes are immaculate after being the king of National Tight End Day, hauling in 7 receptions for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Carolina poses a much stiffer challenge, only giving up 10.2 points per game in the last three weeks to opposing tight ends. Now you’re not going to sit Kraft by any means, but I do think that he will likely be a low end TE1 rather than a sure thing relative to other top tight ends this week.
Alternate Scoring Settings
0.5 PPR
No PPR (Standard)
Points Allowed Differential from Average
If you would rather view the data as the differential from the average points allowed, you can do so with the charts below.
1.0 PPR Differential
0.5 PPR Differential
No PPR (Standard) Differential
Still got Start/Sit questions? Check out Tyler Bradley and Joe Frick on From the Forum on the FSAN YouTube Channel for the answers to all your fantasy football questions every Friday at 10:00 pm ET.