Over the past five years, fantasy football has evolved in most areas. One area that has lagged is projecting rookies. Enhanced player scouting, accurate projections, and mock drafts reduce guesswork. Yet, predicting rookie redraft outcomes remains the ultimate challenge. In Rookie Redraft Outcomes, we will discuss some of the trends to help managers better understand the rookie class.
Dynasty analysts often fuel “Rookie Fever”, inflating rookie draft stock. Years ago, league-winning rookie running backs and receivers went in rounds 8-10. Now those same level players are being snatched up in rounds 3-4. The return on investment for rookies in redraft is no longer there. This phenomenon happens with “Sleepers” often. A “sleeper” label from a major fantasy outlet can skyrocket a player’s ADP, forcing you to draft them at their ceiling. This trend also hurts rookie values in redraft leagues, leading me to avoid the majority of them at their current cost.
The main theory here is to avoid rookie hype, especially in the first 8-10 rounds. You are still encouraged to take fliers on rookies in the later rounds of redraft leagues. I’m just not drafting them at their current ADP. Keep in mind, Justin Jefferson was drafted outside the top 100, and Puka Nacua was selected outside the top 250. Those are the true league-winners. Save the earlier rounds for proven players.
Hive Mindset
In 2024, Malik Nabers finished as WR4 and was drafted in round 4 of redraft leagues. Brian Thomas Jr. ended up as WR7 and was drafted in round 9 of redraft leagues. While both players hit their ceiling outcomes, one was a much better value to fantasy managers, as the five-round discount on Thomas Jr. was a game-changer. To further this point, the increased cost of Nabers didn’t increase his likelihood of success. We saw this play out with Marvin Harrison Jr., where he was all the way up into the second and even third round of redraft league, but finished as a WR3.
We have gotten to a point in time where every year there is a “generational” talent at each position. I don’t believe those players are all generational, but that’s how the community hypes them up. The notion that a certain left of draft capital makes a player a can’t-miss prospect has crept into our collective minds, and it is completely false.
Explaining the Data
Below is a table that looks at players drafted since 2020. It breaks down each position by the round they were drafted in the NFL Draft. It then shows how many players were drafted in that group and how they scored in their rookie season. I used 1/2 PPR scoring, and players are scored in groups of 12. Quarterbacks are rated as either QB1 (1-12), QB2 (13-24), QB3 (25-36), or NR, which means not ranked and essentially useless for fantasy.
**I included all players drafted except players who were known to be out for the season long before drafts began (JJ McCarthy). Some writers would want to take out players who missed most of the year to injury, but I chose to include them as we didn’t know they would be out when we drafted them, and as such, can not just exclude them from the data.**
Rookie Redraft Outcomes
| ROUND | POS | QB1 | Hit Rate | QB2 | Hit Rate | QB3 | Hit Rate | NR | Hit Rate |
| 1 | Quarterbacks | 4/19 | 21.1% | 5/19 | 26.3% | 5/19 | 26.3% | 5/19 | 26.3% |
| 1 | Running Backs | 3/5 | 60.0% | 1/5 | 20.0% | 0/5 | 0% | 1/5 | 20% |
| 1 | Wide Receivers | 4/28 | 14.3% | 4/28 | 14.3% | 7/28 | 25.0% | 13/28 | 46.4% |
| 1 | Tight Ends | 3/3 | 100% | 0/3 | 0% | 0/3 | 0% | 0/3 | 0% |
| 2 | Quarterbacks | 0/3 | 0% | 0/3 | 0% | 2/3 | 66.7% | 1/3 | 33.3% |
| 2 | Running Backs | 1/11 | 9.1% | 4/11 | 36.4% | 0/11 | 0% | 6/11 | 54.5% |
| 2 | Wide Receivers | 0/27 | 0% | 1/27 | 3.7% | 3/27 | 11.1% | 23/27 | 85.2% |
| 2 | Tight Ends | 1/9 | 11.1% | 1/9 | 11.1% | 2/9 | 22.2% | 5/9 | 55.6% |
| 3 | Quarterbacks | 0/6 | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 1/6 | 16.7% | 5/6 | 83.3% |
| 3 | Running Backs | 1/16 | 6.3% | 1/16 | 6.3% | 1/16 | 6.3% | 13/16 | 81.3% |
| 3 | Wide Receivers | 0/22 | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 0/22 | 0% | 22/22 | 100% |
| 3 | Tight Ends | 0/14 | 0% | 0/14 | 0% | 3/14 | 21.4% | 11/14 | 78.6% |
| 4 | Quarterbacks | 0/7 | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 1/7 | 14.3% | 6/7 | 85.7% |
| 4 | Running Backs | 0/20 | 0% | 1/20 | 5% | 3/20 | 15% | 16/20 | 80% |
| 4 | Wide Receivers | 0/16 | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 16/16 | 100% |
| 4 | Tight Ends | 0/18 | 0% | 1/18 | 5.6% | 4/18 | 22.2% | 13/18 | 72.2% |
| 5 | Quarterbacks | 0/8 | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 8/8 | 100% |
| 5 | Running Backs | 0/16 | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 2/16 | 12.5% | 14/16 | 87.5% |
| 5 | Wide Receivers | 1/21 | 4.8% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 20/21 | 95.2% |
| 5 | Tight Ends | 0/11 | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 11/11 | 100% |
| 6 | Quarterbacks | 0/5 | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 0/5 | 0% | 5/5 | 100% |
| 6 | Running Backs | 0/17 | 0% | 1/17 | 5.9% | 0/17 | 0% | 11/12 | 91.7% |
| 6 | Wide Receivers | 0/29 | 0% | 0/29 | 0% | 0/29 | 0% | 29/29 | 100% |
| 6 | Tight Ends | 0/9 | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 9/9 | 100% |
| 7 | Quarterbacks | 0/9 | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 9/9 | 100% |
| 7 | Running Backs | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 1/12 | 8.3% | 11/12 | 91.7% |
| 7 | Wide Receivers | 0/20 | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 20/20 | 100% |
| 7 | Tight Ends | 0/6 | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 6/6 | 100% |
Quarterback Review
The data is straightforward on rookie quarterbacks. If you need a QB1, you have a 1 in 5 chance of success. Rookie quarterbacks are far more viable in superflex leagues because your chances of getting a Top 24 quarterback go up to 47.4%.
Over the past five seasons, Aidan O’Connell is the only non-first-round quarterback to crack the Top 36 at the position. So, you can feel confident limiting your redraft QB pool to Day 1 quarterbacks only.
One thing worth mentioning is to examine where each rookie quarterback was selected in the first round. The four quarterbacks who finished as QB1s were all Top 12 picks. The five who finished as QB2s were all Top 15 picks, and the five who finished as QB3s were all Top 20 or higher. Five quarterbacks finished lower than QB36 as a rookie, but all were for a specific reason. All five were played less than a full season due to injury or because they were an incumbent starter on their team.
Quarterback Takeaways
Ignore all Day 2/3 quarterbacks in redraft leagues. Round 1 quarterbacks are viable options in Superflex leagues, but only Top 12 picks should be considered for 1QB redraft leagues.
Viable Options
Cam Ward (Titans) after 150th overall in 1QB leagues and Jaxson Dart (Giants) after 150th overall in superflex leagues.
Tight End Review
Tight end is simple to decipher. If they were drafted in the first round, draft them as a TE1. Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid, and Brock Bowers were all first-round picks and all finished 12th or better at the position.
After the certainty of the first round, the position falls off a cliff. Sam LaPorta is the only tight end to finish in the top 12 who was selected outside of Round 1. No other rookie tight end finished in the Top 12, and Pat Freirmuth was the only one to even crack the Top 24.
From Round 3 on, the tight end position becomes a barren wasteland that can be ignored for redraft. Analysts love to hype up the NFL Combine darlings with freakish athleticism, but the truth is, they aren’t going to be useful to your redraft squad.
Tight End Takeaways
If a rookie tight end is the path you wish to take in your redraft league, make sure it’s a first-rounder. They are all but guaranteed to be Top 12 at the position, although that bar is far from impressive.
Viable Options
Colston Loveland around 125th overall (Bears) and Tyler Warren around 100th overall(Colts).
In tight end premium leagues or leagues with multiple tight starting tight ends, Elijah Arroyo (Seahawks), Mason Taylor (Jets), and Terrance Ferguson (Rams) become worthy of consideration. All of these options are last-round targets.
Running Back Review
The running back position is where things start to get interesting, but are still predictable. First-round running backs are a sure thing; even if you get the worst-case scenario in Clyde Edwards-Helaire, you still get an RB2. The only first-rounder who wasn’t at least an RB2 was Travis Etienne, who was injured. These players are safe but should be viewed as low-end RB1s, not high-end RB1s.
Beyond the first-round picks, things get dicey. The running back position is easily the most over-drafted in fantasy, as player values can become inflated for a variety of reasons. Fantasy managers love to overpay for Day 2 running backs in hopes of hitting the next Jonathan Taylor, but outside of Taylor, Antonio Gibson is the only Day 2 running back to finish as an RB1. It’s not nearly as likely as the fantasy community would have you believe. You have a 9.1% chance of landing an RB1 with a Round 2 running back, and a 6.3% chance with a Round 3 running back.
Your odds of hitting go up if it’s an RB2 you need, but even with a Round 2 pick, you still have only a 36.4% chance of landing one. So, with a 36.4% chance that your Round 2 selection will only be an RB2, why are we paying 4th-round redraft prices?
The Day 3 Mirage
Day 3 running backs have become a fade that is a total mirage. Bucky Irving and Elijah Mitchell both finished inside the Top 24 as rookies, but outside of that, there have been only seven rookie running backs in five years to even finish inside the Top 36. Fantasy managers are seeing the spike in value that a rookie running back can have in dynasty and are extrapolating that to redraft, where it doesn’t matter. I’m not paying a mid-round pick for a Day 3 running back in hopes of hitting the next Irving who might be able to finish in the Top 15.
Running Back Takeaways
First-round running backs should be treated as low-end RB1s and drafted in the first couple of rounds. If it’s an RB2 you need, Round 2 running backs are worth a shot. Aside from that, all other rookie running backs should be considered dart throws or flex options at best. Do not overpay for these “sexy” rookie names in redraft. In the end, most of them will never hit and will be on your waiver wire long before they hit your starting lineup. Most of the Day 3 running backs who are hits for redraft leagues end up being in-season waiver wire gems, so keep an eye on them, but don’t waste valuable picks on them. They are lottery tickets and nothing more.
Viable Options
Ashton Jeanty (Raiders) and Omarion Hampton (Chargers) should be viewed as Top 12 running backs. RJ Harvey (Broncos), TreVeyon Henderson (Patriots), and Quinshon Judkins (Browns) are all worth a shot with RB2 upside. They should be considered 50/50 shots to finish in the Top 24. Their odds become even longer when you consider Judkins’ contract situation and the touch competition for Harvey and Henderson. I have Henderson all the way up to 1 top 50 pick. Harvey, I’m targeting around 75th overall, and Judkins is a decent option after round 10.
Wide Receiver Review
The receiver position is where projections are the most difficult. This is mainly because there are so many rookie receivers drafted every year. Hitting the next Puka Nacua is not as easy as people make it out to be. Since 2020, only five rookie receivers have finished as WR1s. Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas Jr. were all first-round picks, and all finished as Top 12 receivers as rookies. Interestingly enough, all four also went to LSU. The only other rookie WR1 was the aforementioned Puka Nacua.
Over the past five years, there have been so many first-round hits at the position that every Round 1 receiver is assumed to be a stud, but that’s far from the truth. In reality, 46.4% of the receivers drafted in the first round finish lower than WR36. The first round receivers have a 14.3% WR2 hit rate and a 25% WR3 hit rate. So while you have a 50% of getting a WR3 or better out of the rookies, you also have a 50% chance of getting a droppable player.
The new hotness has been late-round receivers, because Nacua was that good. Sadly, the chances of a repeat are extremely poor. Only 3.7% of second-round receivers finish in the Top 24, with only 11.1% even cracking the top 36.
Out of the 108 receivers selected in Round 3 or later since 2020, Nacua is the only one to finish inside the Top 36.
Wide Receiver Takeaways
A first-round receiver could give you Top 5 upside, especially if they went to LSU. In the end, for every first-round receiver who succeeds, one will fail. Consider all of them coin flips, no matter the draft capital. Round 2 receivers can be useful as WR2/3s, but that’s it for redraft. You should wipe all receivers drafted in Round 3 or later off your redraft board. Sure, you may miss the next Nacua, but he was a once-in-a-generation gem. You are going to lose money chasing those odds.
Viable Options
Consider Emeka Egbuka, Matthew Golden, and Tetairoa McMillan the only receivers who must be drafted in redraft leagues. Jack Bech (Raiders), Jayden Higgins (Texans), Luther Burden (Bears), and Tre Harris (Chargers) can all be viewed as potential depth receiving options. McMillan is a top 50 pick for me. Egbka isn’t far behind in the top 70, with Golden inside the top 100. Bech, Higgins, Burden, and Harris are players for after 125th overall.
Closing Argument
If you have been keeping score all along, you will note I don’t suggest many rookies as must-draft redraft targets. In superflex leagues, the must-draft list includes only two quarterbacks, two tight ends, five running backs, and seven receivers.
Yes, you read that right. In my redraft leagues, there are only a total of 16 rookies on my board at all. That doesn’t mean there aren’t others I am keeping an eye on. Many more are conceivable as potential waiver wire targets or handcuffs. Those 16 are the only ones on my priority list, but at a reasonable price.
Out of those 16 rookies, many of them will not be on any of my redraft rosters. I am not drafting them anywhere near their current ADP. I have Jeanty at RB8, McMillan as WR22, Loveland and Warren as TE10 and TE11 respectively, and Ward as QB19. At those prices, I will likely have far more veterans on my redraft rosters than rookies.