Welcome to the fourth edition of the Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report, where I take a look every Sunday at many things fantasy basketball. If this isn’t your first read, nice to see you back again. If this is the first time you’re signing in, thanks for giving me a try!
In this edition:
I’ll start with a drop list and a few potential adds, which is a new feature in the column.
Next, I’ll try to answer a question that’s always vexed me in fantasy basketball. Is it better to get players with medium usage on teams with winning records, or is it better to get players with lots of usage on teams with poor performance? I’ll examine the good team/good usage conundrum in this edition by comparing some similar players.
Also, this is probably the best rookie class we’ve seen in some time. Very few dynasty losers this year so far, I think. I’ll give a top five list, and then start looking at some of the players that haven’t hit yet and trying to figure out when it might happen.
I’ll end with some news and notes. All stats are current prior to games on November 22nd unless otherwise mentioned.
NBA Schedules:
Teams with four games
Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Memphis Grizzlies, Milwaukee Bucks, Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, New York Knicks, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, Toronto Raptors
Best 4-game schedules: Memphis Grizzlies (Nuggets, Pelicans, Clippers, Kings) and Sacramento (Minnesota (bad), Phoenix, Utah, Memphis (good))
Teams with three games
Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Philadelphia 76ers, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards
Best 3-game schedules: Chicago Bulls (Pelicans, Hornets, Pacers (Tues-Thurs off)); Golden State Warriors (Jazz, Rockets, Pelicans), Houston Rockets (Suns, Warriors, Jazz), LA Lakers (Clippers, Dallas, Pelicans)
Teams with two games: Washington Wizards, Orlando Magic
Would not drop: Alex Sarr, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Desmond Bane.
Best players to drop to stream: any other Wizards or Magic you have rostered. Kyshawn George had cooled off until yesterday. Tristan de Silva is just a Banchero fill-in.
Drop List
This list is for fantasy players who are at least 15% owned on Yahoo, in order of their percentage owned.
Out for the season: Walker Kessler (still 57% rostered!), Bradley Beal (still 53%!)
The rest:
SF Cam Thomas (85%, empty scoring average, IR not necessary)
PF Draymond Green (83%, okay in some punt builds)
SG Anfernee Simons (80%, why is anyone rostering him?)
SG Christian Braun (72%, though IR spot OK)
SF Cameron Johnson (69%, still doing nothing despite Braun out)
SG CJ McCollum (59%, okay to keep if you’re still a believer)
PG Russell Westbrook (54%, drop in categories only)
SF Jonathan Kuminga (32%, stats down before the injury)
PF Bobby Portis (26%, totally irrelevant)
Add List
Check to see if available (over 50% availability only):
Kon Knueppel (52% available), Santi Aldama (56% available), Jabari Smith, Jr. (57% available), Zach Edey (58% available), Derik Queen (61% available), Reed Sheppard (60% available), Jaden Ivey (66%), Andre Drummond (71%), Moussa Diabate (74% available), Ace Bailey (76% available)
I’ll talk about a lot of these players later, but the best pickups here are Knueppel, Edey, Queen, Sheppard, and Ivey.
Players On Good Teams or Players With Opportunity?
Opportunity usually beats out talent in fantasy basketball, but there are exceptions. For example, I was recently talking to someone about Immanuel Quickley, the Toronto Raptors’ point guard. A career 42% shooter, Quickley is hitting 47% of his shots so far this year, which would represent a career high if it lasted all year.
The Raptors are 11-5 right now, and I think Toronto is a vastly underrated team. There really isn’t a single wasted spot on their roster. Quickley has always been an excellent three-point shooter, and with the team playing well around him, he is getting more open looks. His 15 PPG ranks fourth on the Atlantic-leading Raptors.
I made the argument that this performance was potentially sustainable. Quickley last shot 45% on the Knicks, the last time he was on a winning team. Furthermore, I argued that Quickley would definitely not be doing this on the Jazz or Pacers. This got me thinking: Is it better to get fantasy players on poor teams, hoping they will break out of the pack? Or is it better to get a fourth option on a good team, hoping that the lack of attention will clear space for them?
Let’s start with the obvious: this argument is silly in points leagues that don’t factor in efficiency or three pointers.
In those sorts of leagues, you absolutely want the guy who’s gunning it up on the Pacers or Nets or Kings or Pelicans. It doesn’t matter if they make their shots just so long as there’s a lot of usage. Similarly, this isn’t that important an argument in punt builds. So we’re mostly talking about fantasy points formats like ESPN, where missed shots matter, or 8 and 9-category leagues.
Comparing Top Options on Bottom Teams to Middle Options on Top Teams
This isn’t precisely apples to apples here, and it’s hard to predict in the future. For example, Toronto was projected to finish with 33 wins. That could still happen, but the team isn’t remotely on that trajectory right now.
However, I can look back to last year and the 2023-4 season to see what happened in these exact situations. I gathered the statistics from players on teams with the worst six records and the best six from both seasons. I looked at the top two options on the worst teams and the third and fourth options on the best. These are the sort of players we’d think of immediately as “fantasy relevant.”
TL;DR version: don’t draft top options on bad teams, do draft third options on good ones, and watch the bad teams for bargains when the good players go down.
Third/Fourth Option on Top Six Teams
In 2024, this included the Thunder, Cavs, Celtics, Rockets, Knicks, and Clippers. In 2023, it was the Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Clippers, and Knicks.
Here’s the list for their third and fourth options:
Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Isaiah Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren, pre-Superman Josh Giddey, Ivica Zubac, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, RJ Barrett, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, FVV and Amen Thompson, Michael Porter, Jr., Aaron Gordon, Rudy Gobert, and Naz Reid.
I’ve seen a top 50 list before, and this is kind of what it looks like. Even in categories, we’re looking at a whole collection of top-80 players here.
Top Options on Bottom Six Teams Average
In 2024, this included the Jazz, Wizards, Hornets, Pelicans, 76ers, and Nets. In 2023, it was the Pistons, Wizards, Blazers, Hornets, Spurs, and Raptors.
Here’s the list for their “first and second options.” (Quotations because this was somewhat more fluid on the bottom teams.)
Jordan Poole, Kyle Kuzma, LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, Lauri Markkanen, Colin Sexton, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III, CJ McCollum, Cam Thomas, Cameron Johnson, Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Scottie Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, Devin Vassell, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant.
What Does This Tell Us?
Three things stand out to me about these two lists.
1) The trope that low-end teams play their key players less seems true. All along this list, it struck me just how few of the really valuable players on the second list played as many as 68 games (around 85%). That’s actually a very short list: it’s Wemby, Kuzma, Poole, and Sexton. Not a really inspiring list, other than extending The Alien’s rookie season.
This lends itself to a circular question. Are bad teams bad because their best players don’t play often, or is the fact that they don’t play their best players often what makes them bad? It’s a good philosophical question, but it doesn’t help us in fantasy. What does that if we can predict that a team is likely to be terrible, their fantasy-worthy draft picks aren’t going to play a lot of games.
In other words, it confirms our bias. There were way more misses than hits here. It tells us we shouldn’t spend draft picks on these players where they’re ranked, maybe ever. (It also tells us the NBA season might be too long.)
2) This brings the corollary that while not drafting players on these teams, they should be monitored all year for bargains. That’s where the opportunity arises: watching waivers for new usage. There were multiple teams on that list where three or four players averaged 18+ points a game. They just didn’t do it at the same time.
3) Conversely, taking a third or fourth option on a good team is a great idea according to these lists. If you can predict that a team is going to be good, their third and fourth options usually get big bonuses. That is in part because these players often do things other than score, which is part of the reason good teams are good. And if the first or second options aren’t available, they get a usage bump some nights.
Best Rookie Class Since 2018?
Top Five Rookies
- SG Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets. This looked like Cedric Coward’s mantle to lose, but Knueppel has been incredible. With everyone in Charlotte healthy on Saturday, Kneuppel hit six treys and scored 26. Kneuppel’s last five scoring outputs: 26, 28, 24, 32, and 8 (against OKC). He’s nearly had a triple-double in two games this year, and his six boards and three assists per game are on par with his former Duke teammate, Cooper Flagg.
- SF Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies. Coward has fallen off this month, posting November averages of 14 points, 7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 42.6% shooting, and less than a stock per game. However, his entire body of work is impressive.
- C Ryan Kalkbrenner, Charlotte Hornets. Kalkbrenner is still shooting over 80% from the floor and is in the top five in the NBA in blocked shots. He’s the top-ranked full-season fantasy rookie in every category format right now. He has to be up here.
- SF Cooper Flagg, Dallas Mavericks. Flagg is going to make his way to near the top of this list soon if he keeps up his current pace. The rookie had been shooting poorly from the floor, but has reduced his range shots. As a result, he is now shooting 56% from the floor over his last six games. He hasn’t been amazing in any one category, but is posting numbers in all of them now.
- SG VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers. Edgecombe has fallen off recently, which he had to do unless he was going to be an All-Star out of the gate. We haven’t had one of those in decades. Still, the shooting guard is posting numbers in multiple categories, and the pendulum will eventually swing back. Just not yet.
I expect every single one of these guys to be in the top 100 fantasy players in nine-cat by the end of the year. While I don’t see anyone in this draft class who’s going to become the next SGA or Luka, there’s plenty to see here.
When Do The Rest of the Rookies Arrive?
Derik Queen has been absolutely electric for the Pelicans in November. His average over his last two games: 25 points, 8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 1 block, 1.5 steals, 57% shooting. He’s averaging 4.6 assists per game in November and very well might lead the rookie class in that category. And he’s a center! He’s arrived.
I admit it, I was wrong on Jeremiah Fears, who I thought would not be ready for the pro game. He’s absolutely not ready to run an offense, but Derik Queen is doing that in New Orleans. Shockingly, he’s not only been scoring, but he’s been efficient doing it, shooting well over 50% over his last five games, including an unsustainable 7-11 from three.
Ace Bailey is already getting minutes, but he’s not doing much except for putting the ball in the basket most nights. However, he has been doing that with efficiency, making 51% of his shots and 38.5% of his three pointers this month.
Dylan Harper was already putting up solid numbers before he got hurt earlier this year, and was on the borderline of being rosterable before he got hurt. I think he’s on a minutes restriction, so he’s mostly just for dynasty this year.
Egor Demin was not handed the starting point guard spot, but I expect him to have it by the end of the year – probably by February. He should have no trouble dispatching veteran Terance Mann, who he is outplaying significantly on a per-minute basis, once he improves his overall game.
Tre Johnson is making almost 40% of his threes with some volume, but is doing little else while averaging just 23 minutes per game. Look at him during the silly season, though, because they’ll probably let him rip.
High End Notes
A lot of people joked that Jalen Johnson would have his third breakout this year. It’s happening now. He can’t keep up the Magic Johnson act when Trae Young is back, but he’s playing inspired ball. Don’t sell at all.
James Harden needs some help. I mean, unless he scores 55 points every game. Then he doesn’t. The Clippers have been terrible, but Harden and Ivica Zubac have been a font of fantasy goodness.
The sell-high window on Julius Randle has slammed shut, I think. It’s still open on Trey Murphy III, Mikal Bridges, and Ryan Rollins. I would probably pass trading Murphy, test the market on Bridges, and trade Rollins soon.
Lauri Markkanen, I still recommend selling, because I doubt he’ll be there regularly in the fantasy playoffs. But if you need him to GET to the fantasy playoffs, keep him. They’re just gonna keep giving him the ball.
Deni Avdija is probably at his ceiling, but he’s been just spectacular this year. He hasn’t missed a game yet, either. He’s him in Portland now, for sure, and you should ride this train wherever it goes.
Drops In The Bucket
The season is young, but literally the only games Mark Williams has missed are two second halves of back-to-backs. His numbers aren’t inspiring, but he’s quietly a top 50 player so far, and the Suns are winning. Fantasy managers rejoice!
Reed Sheppard continues his climb into relevance. The former Kentucky star has not only fixed his shooting problems, but he’s quietly shooting 58% over the last 2+ weeks and has more than two steals per game. He’s not a fantasy star yet, but if he keeps this up, he’s going to be.
Amen Thompson wasn’t expected to be in this section all year, but he wouldn’t be if he were making his shots. Field goal percentage is a fickle mistress. It isn’t helping that his blocks are way down, which is likely a result of him playing more around the perimeter. So far, he’s not who we drafted, and since Houston is wildly successful, don’t expect them to change much.
Isaiah Stewart has held tough in the top 100 this year. There’s no reason he can’t stay there all year long, especially since Ron Holland II hasn’t been getting the job done yet. Threes and blocks are still an unusual combination.
Speaking of threes and blocks, Matas Buzelis‘ numbers this season overall look just like his numbers after the All-Star Break last year. However, I suspect owners wanted more than PJ Washington out of him. He might get a big boost during the silly season if the Bulls continue to crumble.
This is probably a good time to buy Bennedict Mathurin. He hasn’t been putting up the crazy scoring numbers he posted before he was injured, yet. Some of that is because Andrew Nembhard has been on fire this week.
Signing Off
Thanks for reading again! The Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report will be back again next week, with news you can use.
