Welcome to the third edition of the Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report, where I take a look every Sunday morning at all things fantasy basketball.
We’ll lead off with a discussion of what it means to “sell high” or “buy low,” two terms thrown around a lot but not usually well-defined.
I’ll follow with some big fantasy hoops headlines from the week, lots of news and notes, some stats that interest me, and some game picks for the week. Last week, a solid 2-1 in three picks, bringing me to an improved 4-6 overall…and I don’t think I’ll pick the Nets again, so that should help!
All stats are current prior to games on November 8th unless otherwise mentioned.
What Are Buy-Lows and Sell-Highs Anyway?
In a lot of ways, fantasy basketball isn’t all that different from the stock market. A lot of analysts use the same language as the equity markets do. That said, you don’t get Matas Buzelis dunks like this on Wall Street. Also, whether you like him or not, you never have to think about Elon Musk in fantasy basketball – though you still have to figure out what to do with Ja Morant. But like the stock market, we try to buy low and sell high on players.
A “buy-low” trade is narrowly defined as a highly drafted player who is performing poorly. Nobody is blinking if someone trades their seventh-round pick for someone else’s tenth-rounder. Yawn. Everyone notices if they trade their second-round pick for someone’s seventh.
A “sell-high” trade is a player who is performing well that you do not believe will continue playing at that level. This does not ALWAYS have to be a low draft pick. It could be a third-rounder, like Scottie Barnes, who is shredding. It could be an eighth-round pick like Alex Sarr returning second or third round value. Both are justifiable sell-high candidates.
There have been a larger number of surprising draft bargains this year than usual, which creates a lot of sell-high opportunities. These kinds of trades often win leagues, so they are worth trying. Here are some rules you can follow that make these deals more likely to happen.
Rule #1: The Other Owner Matters.
We often tend to forget about the other person when we are trading. However, these trades require another person to be willing to sell low or buy high. They’re thinking the same way that you are about these deals.
Because of this, these trades are often hard to get done in fantasy basketball. Many owners are convinced you are trying to “cheat” them out of their better players. Owners are convinced their fourth-round pick will be just fine, even if that player is Desmond Bane. (Maybe they’re even right: Bane had a great game Friday.) You will not get as much as you hoped at first. Accept this and make a deal you still like.
Rule #2: You Will Rarely Get “Full Value” In These Trades.
What is “full value?” For example, let’s say you’re looking to trade Julius Randle. Randle has been incredible this year, posting top-fifteen numbers in every format. He just posted a triple-double on Friday. With an ADP in the 70s, he was probably your best draft bargain. You’re looking to cash out. What can you get?
Well, if you were looking for James Harden or Devin Booker for Randle, you’re likely out of luck. This isn’t a “Gamestop” moment, where you sell and get 100% of that player’s production. That would be “full value” for him. There is no value in making that deal for the other side. Why trade a player who is likely to do all season what Randle is doing now? Similarly, likely no one is trading Tyrese Maxey for Cade Cunningham right now. They have no reason to do this. Good rule for any trade: reverse the trade first, then ask yourself if you would be happy being the other team.
Rule #3: Search For Middle Ground
People tend to believe that players performing well or badly will land somewhere between where they were drafted and where they currently are. Reversion to the average is the whole basis for a “sell-high” or “buy-low” trade. It’s why we didn’t all run to trade Amen Thompson (ESPN ADP 15) for Isaiah Hartenstein (ADP 107) this week. It’s why most people didn’t offer huge deals for Kawhi Leonard, who has been awesome this year and is now predictably injured.
Rule of thumb for sell-highs: average the player’s current value with their drafted round, and aim for players drafted in that range.
Let’s go back to the Randle example. Randle’s ADP on Yahoo was 65, ESPN, 72, around the 6th-8th round. He’s playing top ten basketball in many formats. What if you tried to get, say, a third or fourth rounder for him to split the difference? My prediction is you’d do pretty well.
Trying to get Franz Wagner, De’Aaron Fox, Deni Avdija, Jaren Jackson, Jr., or Ja Morant for him would make sense. Asking for Trae Young, Cade Cunningham, or Anthony Edwards would likely get the door slammed in your face.
Rule of thumb for buy-lows: you usually can’t get a player for less than a round or two lower than the player’s initial draft position in a buy-low.
Example: Cade Cunningham is killing in points right now, but not in categories. You could try to get him for Evan Mobley or Jalen Brunson. Those guys were players near the 2/3 turn, and Cunningham was a first-rounder in nearly every format. You’re not going to get him for Alex Sarr or Ryan Kalkbrenner or even both of them, even though they are both currently ranked higher.
Similarly, Desmond Bane, whose ADP was low fourth/high fifth, could probably be acquired for a steady sixth or seventh-rounder. Michael Porter, Jr., or Zach LaVine would fit the bill. I would not recommend this! But you might want to do it.
It is sometimes possible to package two regulars together for a buy-low, so you can also offer two-for-ones in that situation. For example, using the players above, Porter and LaVine for Cunningham might not be an insane offer.
Be realistic in your expectations in a sell-high or buy-low trade, and you will probably succeed in making one.
Rule #4: Trade Your Sell-Highs FOR Buy-Lows
This is one of my single favorite things to do in basketball leagues. Why does a trade have to be one or the other? Often this creates double value. You’re losing the possible regression of your breakouts and likely getting the best version of their laggards.
For example, you might try to choose to trade Kelly Oubre, Jr. (top 30 in 9-cat and lower in points leagues) for Desmond Bane. Oubre is a veteran with a long track record and at least two treys in every game this year. Bane is a player going from the fastest team in the NBA, Memphis, to the slowest, Orlando, and has had trouble adjusting.
Who’s to say that Bane will actually outperform Oubre? Well, we have years of data that suggest that Bane will. In the preseason, I consistently listed Bane lower than consensus for the reasons above, but not in the 150s, where he is currently ranked. Oubre was ranked well outside the top 100 players. Still, I’d have to at least think about a deal like this, even if I probably wouldn’t do it. It would be a place to start.
Similarly, say you’re the lucky guy who grabbed Charlotte rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner off the wire in category leagues. His astronomical defensive numbers and high shooting percentage put him in the top 30 in that format. I probably can’t trade him for Cooper Flagg, regularly drafted in the fifth round or higher and performing inconsistently at a ninth-round level…right? What about for Zion Williamson, currently ranked 273rd in Yahoo 9-cat? Nobody’s frustrated with Zion yet? What about DeMar DeRozan or Darius Garland for him? Does that seem okay to everyone?
With those questions in mind, let’s look at some players who are and are not sell highs and buy lows.
Good Choices for Sell-High Players
SF Scottie Barnes, Toronto Raptors
Barnes is returning first-round value but was a third-round pick in most leagues. His biggest problem is usually availability. Could trade high for probably any pre-season second round pick.
PF Julius Randle, Minnesota Timberwolves:
Randle is a top fifteen value right now. However, Anthony Edwards will probably take the top off of his production, and Randle has never shot this well on this much volume before. Many of his numbers are legit, though: check his Knicks stats. Could trade high for most pre-season third or fourth round picks.
F Lauri Markkanen, Utah Jazz
Markkanen is returning at least second-round value regardless of format, and averaged a sixth-round ADP. There are obvious late-season shutdown issues, but he is capable of this kind of production while active. I still think it’s unlikely he maintains his current level of production. Could trade high for most third or fourth-round picks.
F OG Anunoby, New York Knicks
Anunoby has significantly outkicked his 7th round ADP in every league and is returning second round value in 9-cat. However, the defensive stalwart has had past durability issues. This makes him a solid sell-high. Could trade high for most fourth-round picks.
Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee Bucks
Right now, the iron is hot on Rollins, who is facing the return of Kevin Porter, Jr. Rollins appears improved this year, but I believe his minutes will be reduced upon the return of KPJ. Rollins right now is playing like a potential league winner, and he would also be that if he returned fifth-round value. Maybe trade him for that. Could trade high for most fifth or sixth-round picks.
Sell-High If You Want, But I’d Hold
F Mikal Bridges, New York Knicks
It’s a tricky question as to what part of each Knicks’ forwards’ statistical profiles is real. Anunoby hasn’t done anything really outside of his norm other than a surge in steals. Bridges’ numbers are up across the board, but none of them are so far outside his career numbers that they can’t hold. Bridges is one of the most durable players in the NBA and could maybe return third or fourth round value all year. The best you’ll probably get for him is the same as Anunoby. I’d hold.
C Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards
Fun fact about Sarr, returning at least third-round value in every format: the guy is only averaging 28 minutes per game. The blocks should not be a surprise, and it is gloriously obvious how hard he worked on his shot this offseason. He has no real competition for minutes. Take your prize: Sarr should return at least third or fourth round value all year.
C Jalen Duren, Detroit Pistons
He already had the rebounds, steals, and blocks nailed down. But Duren has significantly scaled up his scoring with a minimal loss of efficiency. Plus, you can’t foul him anymore: he’s hitting 85% from the line on six shots a game. There’s a term for this kind of player: fantasy superstar. Don’t let anyone talk you into selling him high.
SG Cedric Coward, Memphis Grizzlies
Coward’s rookie season feels almost exactly like Oklahoma City star Jalen Williams‘ rookie year. Their numbers are eerily similar for their rookie seasons. Coward might be regularly drafted in the top fifty next year. He’s drawing fouls and getting to the line and hitting 91%. A star is born.
Better Luck Next Time
F Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
Leonard was probably a really spectacular sell-high until he got hurt recently. This reminded everyone that yes, hurt is pretty much Leonard’s steady state. He was a 5th round pick on average, has been playing out of his mind, and you could still try.
SF Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota Timberwolves
McDaniels, who you probably took near the end of your draft, is returning top 50 value so far this year. He’s a wonderful player to have in category leagues, but he’s going to fall off more than Randle when Anthony Edwards returns.
SG VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers
Edgecombe was off to a blazing start, but his numbers have fallen off. What is left is propped up by an unsustainable 38.6 minutes per game. I really don’t know why the 76ers are doing this to the young man; last year, Josh Hart led the NBA with 37.6 minutes per game. Someone save him!
Buy-Lows
The list of these is always smaller, because you usually have to start with the pre-season top 50 players. Otherwise, the term for that is “buy,” not “buy low.” There are three different types of buy-lows: underperforming players, injured players, and players who are both. The more the player underperforms or is injured, the better the price usually is.
PF/C Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat
Word is that Adebayo might miss up to six weeks with a toe injury. His assists, blocks, and field goal percentage were down this year before the injury. However, Adebayo historically has good durability. He had also been shooting more three-pointers before the injury. Trade a fifth or sixth-round pick for Adebayo.
PG LaMelo Ball, Charlotte Hornets
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. LaMelo trips on a basketball court, hurts his ankle. Fantasy managers ask: “What should I trade for him?” I’d answer: “Someone you drafted in Round 6-7.”
I’m here all night.
Also, this is my actual advice. LaMelo played an early back-to-back this year. They think he’s healthier. Buy on the fear. He was about a third or fourth round pick, and you could offer a solid regular for him.
PG Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
In the stock market, we call this “buy on the news,” though that is usually good news. Whatever you are reading in the press, this is still Morant’s team.
If you ignore his shooting percentage, he is basically returning his fifth-round draft value in 9-cat. As it improves, he will also get better in points leagues. If you have a punt FG% category setup or you play in points leagues, he’s a superb add right now. Deal a quality regular to an unsuspecting player.
Shaky Buy-Lows
C/PF Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
In my opinion, Holmgren is probably just a draft bust. Taken at an ADP of 26, he is currently outside the top 100 and has been frequently injured, which has been a problem for him most years of his career.
Isaiah Hartenstein is wrecking right now. The Thunder bench goes 11 deep. Two OKC backups, Ajay Mitchell and Cason Wallace, are in the top 30 in Yahoo 9-cat. In real basketball, the team has an NBA-best 9-1 record this season. They don’t need Holmgren to play seventy games. They haven’t needed J-Dub, and may not need Chet. You can probably get him, but buyer beware.
C/PF Domantas Sabonis, Sacramento Kings
Let’s get this straight: I don’t think Sabonis is going to return sub-100 value, as he definitely is at the moment. That said, his recent hamstring injuries are the same sort of injury that held him back at the end of last year. His numbers were down significantly while playing through them earlier this year. And the price to get Sabonis is probably too high to get excited.
C Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid is really just a good weekly or high-score player at this point. He is still that, so if you play in that kind of format, you can buy Embiid. Otherwise, Embiid should stay off your roster.
Buy-Low Window Likely Closed – Or Never Opened
G/F Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets
This would have been a really good idea if someone was willing to sell, but nope. Thompson just put up two enormous lines in games against Memphis and Dallas – 28/10/7 with two steals enough for you? He’s been adjusting to becoming a centerpiece on that team, but it appears to be happening. That probably closes his buy-low window.
F Pascal Siakam, Indiana Pacers
I think this window never opened – investigate elsewhere. Siakam is doing great in points leagues. He probably shouldn’t be bought low in category leagues. His flaws aside, I’m pretty sure nobody who owns Siakam is excited to move him, as he is doing a lot of good things outside of his poor percentages and turnovers. He’s this year’s Paolo Banchero, unless that’s, you know, Paolo Banchero.
C DeAndre Ayton, Los Angeles Lakers
Ayton had been up and down a little bit for the Lakers, but he just put up a pair of 20 and 10 games, and so I think that probably closes the window on him. He’s had a block in every full game this year.
Championships Are Won At The End, Not The Beginning
Remember: there will be more buy-low and smart waiver wire moves at the end of the season. When we get to the silly season, lots of opportunities exist for players who have done very little all year long. If you miss out early or your team is rock solid, just wait until later to make these kinds of moves.
High End Notes
I could have mentioned Kevin Durant as a buy low, but he’s not right now. The Rockets are still working stuff out, and they have Durant in reserve if things go sideways. The team is third in point differential, so not yet. … Speaking of players who are not sell-highs, Donovan Mitchell might finish in the top ten this year. … Payton Pritchard has shrugged off some early-season issues and is now making his shots. He has 11 treys in the last three games. Pritchard and Derrick White are managing fine in Bizarro Boston. … Also, check out Kon Kneuppel. He’s now 6th in the NBA in made treys, shooting 40.5% on three-point attempts. Injuries happened, and he has been spectacular. … Have we all done RJ Barrett dirty? Nah. But his shot selection has improved a ton, and he’s been very valuable in every format this year.
Drops In The Bucket
Keyonte George‘s assists have fallen off a cliff with Isaiah Collier’s return, as expected. His scoring is going to probably hold solid, but you can banish thoughts of prime CP3. … Grayson Allen has been a solid fantasy performer before, and he’s acting as a playmaker for Phoenix. He’s probably a good play all year. … Josh Minnott reminds me of Shakespeare, who apocryphally, in response to someone telling him “You can’t just make up words,” said “Somebody must.” There must be someone who rebounds in Boston – why not him? … Harrison Barnes has been getting some run with Anthony Davis out, which makes sense. He’s an OK short-term add and bargain DFS play.
Facts And Opinions
NBA Top Ten In Free-Throws Made per game, in order: Austin Reaves, SGA, Keyonte George, Tyrese Maxey, Paolo Banchero, Deni Avdija, Devin Booker, Wemby, Jimmy Butler. Only Banchero (75.3%) and Wemby (81.5%) are below 85% from the line. Biggest category helpers here are clearly NOT cheap – and make for some interesting build ideas.
NBA Top Eleven in Three Pointers Attempted per game: Stephen Curry, Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, Michael Porter, Jr., Grayson Allen, Tyrese Maxey, Austin Reaves, Derrick White, James Harden, Jordan Poole, Aaron Nesmith. Only five of these players are significantly above league average in 3P%. Looking down the list, there appears to be no correlation between three-pointers attempted and percentage made. Other than Curry and Maxey, and such, it feels kind of random.
Nikola Jokic is way too good at basketball: This could be a recurring section. Not only is Jokic +18 in box score plus-minus this year, a full 33% better than second-place Giannis Antetokounmpo (and doubling up fifth-place Donovan Mitchell), but he’s first in that category defensively. Nobody is close. Notably, Cason Wallace might really deserve that starter’s job: he’s third in that category on the best defensive team in the NBA.
A Few Picks For Next Week
Sunday: Orlando over Boston. Orlando has gotten this thing under control, we think. They just took down the Celtics by double digits, and they clearly outclass the Celtics.
Wednesday: Miami over Cleveland. The Heat match up well in every way with the Cavs, and they have an underrated defense. They should take this home.
Friday: San Antonio over Golden State. The Spurs will have Fox back and warmed up by this point, and that should be enough to take down the Warriors.
Signing Off
Thanks for reading, everyone. The Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report will be back again next Sunday morning, with news you can use.
