Welcome to the first edition of the Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report, where I take a look every Saturday at all things fantasy basketball. We’ll lead off with the big fantasy hoops headlines from the week. We’ll look at some risers and fallers in quick notes, rookie debuts, a few full-season waiver wire pickups that emerged this week, some guys to NOT add, some stats that interest me, and some decent bets for the week (entertainment purposes only).
The NBA season has already been breathtakingly captivating. We’ve had a 50-point game, immediate breakout rookies, two Thunder double-overtime games, and a dominating 40-point performance by Victor Wembanyama. Our consensus absolute lock top five players have been individually incredible. Who says regular-season basketball isn’t amazing?
Let’s get to the column.
Will SGA Finish First In Fantasy?
Shai-Gilgeous Alexander won his first NBA title, his first MVP, and his first Finals MVP last year. Right now, he’s following that up with an impossible 45 points per game, and he’s not even shooting well yet! Alexander has a 45/6/5 slashline, with four steals and three blocks in two games. He’s tentatively better than who you drafted in category leagues. He is second in the NBA in Usage Rate (third last year), which says he’s finishing more possessions than anyone besides Luka Doncic.
SGA is outscoring his closest teammate 2-1 right now, as Chet Holmgren has 21.5 PPG to SGA’s 45. Side note: Holmgren is probably also exactly who you thought he was. Since the Thunder are leaning hard on SGA even in double-overtime games, the guard is a favorite to win his second straight scoring title. I don’t think that the return of Jalen Williams is as much of a threat to SGA’s production as LeBron James is to Luka, either. J-Dub will probably swallow up most of Ajay Mitchell and Aaron Wiggins‘ scoring. LeBron will eat into Luka’s totals.
A vintage Jordan-esque season close to 35-37 PPG seems within bounds for SGA. That would easily clear 50+ fantasy points per game in any format, and much more in some. He might still not get the top spot, but that kind of scoring, along with his defensive numbers, would give him a shot. It’ll be hard to take the crown from Jokic, but SGA is one of the few players who could.
…But Victor Wembanyama Has Entered The Chat
Wemby is now doing things like this.
He’s also doing things like this.
In his masterpiece 40 and 15-game to start the year, here’s what I saw from Victor Wembanyama. I watched him totally abuse the Mavericks’ Anthony Davis, one of the greatest big man defenders of my lifetime. He’s embracing his mobility, his height, and his absolutely incredible handle for a big man. There is no one close to his shot-blocking ability currently living on the planet – it might require a Space Jam scenario.
Wemby is absolutely the stud you drafted in points leagues. However, it’s possible he might not be who you expected in categories. The Alien averaged almost 9 three three-point attempts a game last year, but in Game 1, he shot just five shots outside the paint all night long. He was looking to finish, also, not to pass. That pattern continued into Game 2 against New Orleans.
In category leagues, you probably drafted Wemby in part for his three-point shooting and decent assist numbers, which have both been virtually nonexistent through two games. You might not have been counting on him for a 63.6% field goal percentage. He could lead the fantasy world in positive FG% impact this year, even more than Giannis Antetokounmpo, if he keeps this up. Unlike Giannis, he also shot eleven free throws and made nine of them in his first game, and he’s making 80% of his free throws so far.
It’s a long season, but you might consider shuffling your roster accordingly if you drafted Wemby in categories. And lucky you. Lucky us, too – he’s such a fun player to watch.
Vintage Steph
Stephen Curry used to be in the top-three conversation, too. Lately, depending on where you play ball, he’s dropped into the Round 2 or even the Round 3 discussion, which at one time would have been blasphemous. However, Steph may be back.
Right now, he’s ranked #1 in category leagues (or #2 behind Luka), and his current scoring average would be a career high. The veteran is shooting 52.5% from the floor, which has helped to pop him back up to 33.3 PPG. Steph has never shot this high for a whole season, so don’t get too excited, though he hit over 50% once and over 49% three times. So it’s possible he could come close to maintaining this level of performance.
He might also be regaining his defensive focus. Curry led the NBA in total steals in both of his MVP seasons, 2014 and 2015. This year, he’s had at least two steals in every game so far. Shockingly, he has also had at least one blocked shot in every game. He hasn’t averaged more than 1.3 steals per game since 2017-2018, so if he rose back to his MVP levels, that would be a big deal.
Don’t sell him high. Other than Steph and Jimmy Butler, who are also off to a strong start, the only players on this team who are solid scorers are Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga. Curry could keep this up all year long, and he’ll return high first-round value if he does.
High End Notes
Speaking of Luka Doncic, he did, apparently, get in shape. Until LeBron James gets back, he’s going to crush, and then he will only be amazing. Enjoy. … Trae Young has just 11 assists in two games. Jalen Johnson was the initiator in Game 1, and the duties were shared in Game 2. Don’t worry yet if you own him, but maybe also don’t try to buy him low for at least a couple weeks if you don’t. … If you thought Pascal Siakam was overrated this offseason, you can probably stop thinking that. He’s the clear centerpiece of a Pacers team that is largely unproven, despite their Finals run. …On the other hand, if you thought Paolo Banchero was overrated, you might be really, really right. Banchero has struggled in each of his two games this year. That said, you should absolutely try to buy Banchero low. There’s no way this lasts.
Drops In The Bucket
You probably only noticed Walker Kessler‘s debut if you own him, but oh golly. 22 points, 9 boards, 4 assists! 2 three pointers! 4 blocks! 2 steals! His second game was nothing special, however. My advice: sell high, and soon, if you can, and on Lauri Markkanen, too. …Matas Buzelis got to the rim and blocked three shots, though he bricked all of his three-point shots. We’ll see what happens in different matchups, but my long-time Bulls fan pessimism seems silly at the moment. … Speaking of Bulls, Josh Giddey got all the attention, but Tre Jones looked great for them. He could manage six to eight assists per game until Coby White returns, and helps you in other places, too. … Early returns from Boston are that the dynamite appears to have hit the demolition. Jaylen Brown looks less breakout superstar and more like Jaylen Brown, which is still pretty good. The Celtics were taller in the 1960s, I think… Shaedon Sharpe‘s start has been ugly, but be patient. He is averaging 17.5 shots, a high number on the team, and is 11th in the NBA in usage rate. Sharpe has the green light all year.
Instant Karma From Rookies
Obviously, most of the early attention has to go to VJ Edgecombe, who put on an MJ-like performance in his first NBA game. He scored the most points (34) in a debut in almost 70 years – and that was Wilt Chamberlain. The rookie was already noted for his athleticism, but he also shot five three-pointers in thirteen attempts. Starting with the obvious: if he’s on your waiver wire, fix that problem fast. Top three picks who come out of the gate strongly are rare and usually good plays.
Also, Cooper Flagg might be critical of his first game, but I’m not going to be. Let the record show that whatever we think of Flagg in 15 years, he started his career with a double-double. His second game looked more like who we thought we drafted: an inefficient 18 points, plus 5 boards, 6 assists, a block and a steal, two three pointers – some of everything. I still think he’ll return more like 5th-6th round value than the hype train 3rd or 4th round you got from many analysts. But he’s going to be just fine, and said all the right things after the game.
If you’re looking for the two-game rookie leader in usage rate, Dylan Harper is your man. Harper scored an efficient 15 points in the Spurs’ first game and an inefficient 12 points in his second offering. Harper also showed off his rawness, committing five fouls and at least three turnovers in both games.
Rookie Quick Hitters
Charlotte’s Ryan Kalkbrenner is a focused boards/blocks center, but you should scoop him up. He’s likely to have lines like this all year, especially in Bricksville, NC. …Tre Johnson got a LOT more work than I thought he would for the Wizards. He absolutely smashed his debut, but don’t expect his defensive numbers (1 steal and 1 block) to hold. …Kon Kneuppel had three treys in his opener. Don’t be surprised to see him average over two per game, though, for more, you’ll have to wait for an injury or trade. …Memphis forward Cedric Coward‘s perfect 5 5 shooting didn’t continue, but he was still efficient. He has four steals and averaged two stocks a game in college. … Egor Demin isn’t starting ye,t and he hasn’t had a lot of assists. And he may have broken ESPN’s website. But he has made seven treys in two games, and, interestingly, hasn’t taken a two-pointer yet. Be patient.
Early Waiver Wire
As in any fantasy sport, the time to grab potential breakouts is now, right at the beginning of the season. Players already mentioned: VJ Edgecombe, Ryan Kalkbrenner. Let’s see some more players worth filling out our rosters that were likely to be available preseason in at least 50% of leagues.
PF Kyshawn George, Washington Wizards
If, for some reaso,n George was not drafted in your league and is still not owned, fix that problem NOW. For more explanation, click on his name above. Then go back to your league page and hit the “add” button.
F Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
Kuminga is a safe play at this point. He had at least three assists and five rebounds in each of his first three games, is averaging a steal per game, and is shooting a typical 55% from the floor. Based on his last two seasons, there is still potentially untapped upside in Kuminga, but Jimmy Butler will take the top off of that while healthy.
F/C PJ Washington, Dallas Mavericks
Washington is doing his usual thing: he’s averaging a block, a steal, and a couple of threes per game. However, he is also getting 34 minutes a game and is scoring in the upper teens. This could absolutely persist all season. Even if his minutes drop back into the high 20s, he’s a good glue guy.
F Ron Holland II, Detroit Pistons
Former top-five draft pick Holland has not been able to stay out of foul trouble yet, and that is a problem. But in a meager 20 minutes per game, here are his averages: fifteen points, two steals, half a block, a trey and a half, four and a half rebounds, three assists, and 90% free throw shooting on five attempts. There isn’t a team out there that couldn’t use that. Buy him now, not later, before he takes Tobias Harris’ job.
Keep On Waivers
SF Jerami Grant, Portland Trail Blazers
Grant’s 51 points in two games are a little bit hard to ignore. Try harder. Right now, Grant is shooting 66.7% from the floor and 54.5% from three. For his career, those numbers are closer to 45% and 36%. He’s not starting, they’re not looking to get him more time, he hasn’t done much except score, and don’t buy the hype.
G Keyonte George, Utah Jazz
In two games, George is averaging 17 PPG and a whopping 9.5 assists per game in two contests. However, nine assists is too high a number for when starting PG Isaiah Collier returns from a hamstring injury. George is also still shooting just 40% from the floor. He’s an okay short-term add, but don’t get excited.
C Mark Williams, Phoenix Suns
A lot of teams have dropped Mark Williams, who was a popular sleeper pick this year. Williams is averaging just 19 minutes a game in returning from an injury, which is something he does often: he has averaged just 35 games a year in his professional career. He has been rebounding well so far, but is otherwise virtually invisible when he’s not fouling someone. Look away.
C Luke Kornet, San Antonio Spurs
By every advanced stat we have, Kornet is an excellent basketball player. He has a block and at least three assists in both games so far. Last game, he had 35 minutes and put up 14 points and 12 rebounds. Don’t add him to your standard rosters yet. However, he might make a great DFS play on Wemby’s rest days.
Facts And Opinions
Teams that play four games next week (starting Monday): Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Golden State, Lakers, Memphis, New Orleans, Oklahoma City, Orlando, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Toronto, Utah
The only team that plays two games next week: the Clippers
Early-season leaders in Assist percentage (AST%): Josh Giddey, James Harden, Cole Anthony. All that preseason talk of Kevin Porter, Jr., might be out the window already.
Number of NBA players who have shot at least half of their shots from three-point range so far: 113. Most notable on that list, in my opinion: Myles Turner, Cameron Johnson, Kyle Filipowski. And, of course, Aaron Gordon, he of the 50-point game.
My best bets for next week (one per day – why not! Entertainment purposes only, haven’t checked point spreads):
Monday: Bulls at home over Atlanta. Hawks will be playing their fourth game of the week, Bulls third, with plenty of rest.
Tuesday: Wizards over 76ers. Philly will be playing a back-to-back, which probably means no Embiid. Wiz looks a little improved early.
Wednesday: Minnesota over the Lakers. Take Luka in DFS anyway if you can afford him, but I think Minnesota’s slowdown tactics handle the Lakers at home.
Thursday: Charlotte over Orlando. I think it might take a little time for the Magic to get this under control, and they’re on a road back-to-back.
Halloween: Pacers over Hawks. Pacers should be able to handle their perimeter players defensively.
Saturday: Golden State over Indiana. Pacers will have played their third game in four nights and won’t be able to run with the Warriors.
Sunday: Toronto over Memphis. Raptors aren’t a bad ballclub while they’re all healthy.
Signing Off
Thanks for reading, everyone. The Weekly Fantasy Hoops Report will be back again next Saturday, with all the news you can use.
