As the 2025 fantasy football season approaches, several once-reliable stars are showing clear signs of decline. Changes in offensive schemes, shifting team priorities, and emerging competition are reshaping roles and reducing opportunities for players who dominated in prior years. What looked like steady production last season may soon give way to regression, inefficiency, and reduced volume. In a league where opportunity is king, those unable to adapt to evolving situations risk falling far below expectations and taking down fantasy teams with them. This year’s biggest regressions serve as a stark reminder that past success is no guarantee of future value.
Top Fantasy Regressions 2025
James Cook Regression Incoming
James Cook had a breakout fantasy year in 2024, scoring 16 rushing touchdowns and finishing as a top-10 running back. But this surge is unlikely to repeat. Cook totaled just four rushing touchdowns combined in 2022 and 2023. His carries dropped from 237 in 2023 to 207 in 2024, yet his touchdowns spiked eightfold. This sharp increase is a classic red flag for regression. His efficiency barely improved from prior years. Instead, offensive coordinator Joe Brady shifted to a more spread-out scheme with less reliance on a single lead back. This change significantly affected Cook’s overall role and touches.
My list of top fantasy declines starts with a player like Cook, whose role and volume from last season are anything but secure. Under Brady, Cook’s receiving targets dropped from 54 to 38, and his receiving yards fell from 445 to 258. Josh Allen remained the red-zone focal point, carrying 15 times inside the 10-yard line compared to Cook’s six. Four of Cook’s touchdowns came from the 1-yard line, showing usage rather than skill. The offense simply doesn’t funnel many high-value touches to Cook. Though he remains Buffalo’s starter, the scheme does not favor a bell-cow back. Cook’s 2024 season looks like a statistical outlier, warning fantasy managers chasing last year’s points. The outlook for Cook in 2025 is far less promising, especially as the offense spreads touches more evenly.
James Cook’s Volume Vanishes
Cook was never a high-snap, high-volume player. In 2024, he never topped 70% of snaps in any single game. That’s weak usage for a mid-range RB2 draft pick. Buffalo’s coaching staff has embraced a committee approach, increasing pressure on Cook. This limits his chances to rack up consistent touches or dominate the backfield workload.
Ray Davis has carved out a defined role, earning reps on early downs, short-yardage, and in the red zone. Davis logged 20 carries inside the 10-yard line last season, nearly triple Cook’s six attempts. This clearly shows the team’s trust in Davis near the goal line. His physicality fills a gap Buffalo lacked with Cook, especially in close-out or goal-line situations. Davis’s role is growing steadily, which will further shrink Cook’s fantasy ceiling. Fantasy managers should view Davis as an ascending back with real value in Buffalo’s backfield committee. As Davis’s involvement expands, Cook’s opportunities and upside will likely diminish accordingly.
Kyren’s Workload Can’t Save Him
Running back Kyren Williams was a fantasy league winner in 2023, finishing as the RB2 overall. In 2024, he ranked RB7 by volume but showed signs of regression, making him a clear inclusion for my top fantasy regression candidates in 2025. Last season, Williams posted 1,299 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, but efficiency dropped sharply. His yards per carry fell from 5.0 in 2023 to just 4.1 in 2024. Williams only had two runs over 20 yards all season and no runs over 30 yards. This contrasts sharply with his explosive 56-yard run the previous year.
In 2023, Williams was more than a volume back; although limited, he did show some explosiveness and big-play ability. He scored a 63-yard touchdown run and a 33-yard touchdown reception. However, that explosiveness has diminished. His per-touch efficiency dropped to 4.2 yards, and his receiving production fell to 11.4 yards per game. Despite being the Rams’ lead back, it was out of necessity, not dominance. His missed tackles forced per carry dropped from 21% to 17%, showing less ability to break tackles. Williams also struggled to gain consistent yards after contact. Without burst or pass-game impact, he is trending downward.
Kyren Williams Is on Thin Ice
Williams also has a ball security issue, fumbling five times in 2024. These fumbles cost the Rams multiple possessions and, likely, several games. Now, he faces pressure from younger backs aiming to carve out roles. Blake Corum, in his second year, looks to turn his strong pedigree and third-round draft status into a bigger role. Corum carried 58 times for 207 yards as a rookie, mainly in a limited role. His physical running style and short-yardage skills remain attractive to the Rams.
Additionally, fourth-round pick Jarquez Hunter brings even more explosiveness to the backfield. At Auburn, Hunter led the SEC in yards after contact and had the most explosive runs of any back in the conference. If either rookie impresses during camp or preseason, the Rams could shift to a committee approach. This might phase out Williams entirely. Williams is also in a contract year with no extension yet. The Rams appear to be preparing for life without him. His fantasy value is fragile, as he lacks the explosiveness to separate himself from the pack. The heavy workload that supported him in 2024 may not continue.
DJ Moore’s Drop: A Top Fantasy Decline
Wide receiver DJ Moore is still being drafted as a solid WR2 in many leagues. However, he no longer fits comfortably in that tier. The Bears completely overhauled their offense, hiring Ben Johnson as head coach. Johnson’s system, based on his time in Detroit, emphasizes interior receivers over perimeter threats. Moore lined up outside the slot on 73.7% of his snaps over the last three seasons. This role typically results in fewer targets and higher variance in production in a Ben Johnson offense.
This year’s top fantasy declines focus on players miscast in their current systems, not simply those in physical decline. Johnson’s offense in Detroit centered on slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta. Outside receivers like Moore are often deprioritized. Moore’s target share slipped from 26.5% in 2023 to 24.7% in 2024, and he finished WR26 in points per game. Meanwhile, rookie Luther Burden threatens to steal the high-volume “power slot” role Moore once sought. Burden’s physicality and quick separation make him a natural fit. Moore’s name recognition is still strong, but his role no longer supports consistent fantasy output. The coaching change may hurt more than it helps his production.
Target Competition Is Crushing DJ Moore
My top fantasy declines also point to players losing relevance despite past success. In addition to Luther Burden pushing for targets, Rome Odunze, entering Year 2, will be pushing for WR1 targets, while Colston Loveland offers another red-zone weapon. Moore is drafted as a WR18–22 but faces a shrinking upside. The offense won’t focus around him, and Johnson’s scheme doesn’t fit his strengths. If Moore’s volume declines further, he could fall to WR40 territory. His fantasy value now relies on past production, not current usage. It’s time to view him as the boom-bust WR3 he is becoming.
Moore’s role in the new offense remains unclear. OC Ben Johnson has emphasized the importance of “alignment” with key players. This suggests roles in the offense remain unsettled. On a positive note, young quarterback Caleb Williams started building rapport with Moore last season. That connection should improve with more time. However, Williams is still adjusting to NFL speed, and defenses are adapting, keeping the offense in flux. The improved offensive line may take time to gel, leading to faster reads and shorter throws. This hurts deep-threat receivers like Moore. For now, Moore belongs in the boom-bust tier, no longer a weekly lock, and far from the focal point in Chicago’s evolving offense.