Welcome to Week 1 Fluke or Future? In this weekly article, we’ll look back at surprising fantasy performances from “the week that was” in the NFL. Then, we’ll look forward to seeing if those performances were a fluke or if they’re indicative of prospects. Whether good or bad, we’ll discuss who “lucked out,” and who was “locked in.”
Week 1 Fluke or Future: THREE fantasy-relevant wide receivers for the Chargers?
Everyone in fantasy knows what to expect from a Greg Roman offense. It’s all about the run game. Passes will be comparatively fewer and farther between compared to the league average. Points will be hard to come by for quarterbacks (unless yours can rush for 1,000+ yards, a la Lamar Jackson in 2019). And the team’s top wide receivers will be nowhere near the league leaders in most categories. So, you’d have to excuse fantasy managers who were a little nonplussed at the numbers put up by the Chargers’ wideouts in Week 1. Quentin Johnston (WR2), Keenan Allen (WR9), and Ladd McConkey (WR23) all put up starting-caliber fantasy numbers. (Accordingly, Omarion Hampton finished as RB30 on the week, but we digress.)
McConkey’s WR23 finish wasn’t news to managers who drafted McConkey in the third round as WR11 on average. What was news was the fact that McConkey finished third among the team’s wideouts. The fantasy world had, by and large, given up on Johnston and Allen as usable fantasy assets. Allen was WR52 in ADP, drafted largely on speculation since he didn’t sign with the club until after training camp had started. Johnston went essentially undrafted, even ranking behind Tre’ Harris in ADP.
I argued in Overreaction Monday why McConkey would fall short of his high ADP. His WR12 finish last season was the highest ever for a receiver in a Roman offense. And he had to be efficient to do so, finishing just 23rd in targets among wide receivers. McConkey had the highest yards per target (10.3) numbers of any receiver in the top 12. Five of his seven touchdowns came in the red zone. This, despite seeing only nine red zone targets all season. There was room for regression before the Chargers’ all-time leading receiver moved back in. But what do we make of Allen and Johnston’s performances? And what does this room look like moving forward?
As stated, Allen is the Chargers’ all-time leading wide receiver in the fantasy-relevant stats. His top fantasy season ever came with Herbert at quarterback in 2023. Allen caught a career-high eight touchdowns in Herbert’s rookie season. Sunday, Allen led the team in targets and receptions. But he played only 40 of 65 snaps, compared to 55 for McConkey and 53 for Johnston. Six of his seven receptions went for first downs, and he caught his only red zone target for a score. Clearly, the relationship with Herbert is still there. He should prove to be an amazing value at his ADP.
And Johnston? Listen, he’s been a bit disappointing for the team as a first-round pick. But last season showed that he can be a weapon. Johnston was second on the team in snaps played. He led the team in receiving touchdowns and was the team’s primary red zone target. In fact, half of his touchdowns came in the red zone. All of those facts were true of his performance in Week 1 as well. He’s going to be on the field in two receiver sets. He’s going to continue to be a factor.
I don’t expect quite this level of volume for the Chargers’ pass offense to be the new normal. We’ve seen too much of Greg Roman to think he’s going to completely change his stripes. As Hampton gets more comfortable as a pro and Najee Harris gets up to speed, you can bet the Chargers will lean on the run game more. But this is perhaps the most talented pass-catching group- and definitely the most talented passer- Roman’s ever had. And he hasn’t been immune to tailoring his offensive approach to the available personnel. This could be one of the most pass-heavy teams of Roman’s career. And look for the receiver dynamics to continue as well.
McConkey and Allen should continue to be lineup locks as starting wide receivers. Of the two, I’m begrudgingly taking McConkey ultimately to lead the team’s receiving corps in fantasy scoring. Look for them both to be WR2 types with upside. While that may not sit well with McConkey stans, it’s the proper approach given the situation. And I think Johnston, while more volatile, will merit FLEX and DFS consideration. He’ll be a popular waiver wire add this week, and should be rostered in all formats. View him as a boom-or-bust WR3 and a sneaky DFS value play. Sunday wasn’t a Week 1 fluke for the Chargers’ pass attack; it was a glimpse at its future.
Week 1 Fluke or Future: Harold Fannin leads the Browns’ pass catchers?
Well, we all figured the Browns would be throwing more this season. Franchise stalwart Nick Chubb’s run in Cleveland came to an end this offseason. The team brought in four new quarterbacks with nominal starter Deshaun Watson on the shelf. And with the team expected to be playing from behind, it stood to reason that they would be airing it out quite a bit. The announcement of Joe Flacco as the starter only furthered that speculation. After all, we had Flacco’s previous tenure in Cleveland as a guide.
When the Browns brought Flacco in at the end of the 2023 season, Kevin Stefanski unleashed him. From Weeks 13-16 that year, Flacco led all quarterbacks in pass attempts, yards, and fantasy points (and interceptions, but we digress.) His Week 17 game was his most efficient effort. He scored 22.7 fantasy points on only 29 pass attempts, good for a QB5 finish. During that stretch, his top target was tight end David Njoku. Njoku caught 30 of 45 targets for 390 yards and four touchdowns. Amari Cooper caught 25 of 42 for 485 yards and three scores, but the bulk of that came on a massive 11/15/265/2 line in Week 13.
So watching Flacco throw the ball 45 times in Week 1 wasn’t unexpected. But Harold Fannin Jr., leading the Browns’ receiving effort, certainly was. Fannin caught seven balls on a team-best nine targets. The seven catches were second to running back Dylan Sampson’s eight. And Fannin finished just three yards short of Jerry Jeudy’s team-leading 66 yards. Flacco’s old flame Njoku, in contrast, saw just six targets, catching three for 37 yards. Cedric Tillman would catch Flacco’s lone touchdown pass and lead the way with 13.7 half-ppr fantasy points. Tillman would rank as WR17 for the week. Fannin scored 10.1 fantasy points and ranked as TE10, far ahead of Njoku (TE23).
So what gives? Is Fannin the breakout star of the Browns’ pass attack? Let’s dig in. Fannin played on 72% of the Browns’ 76 snaps. Njoku outpaced him, playing 84%. Njoku also ran more routes (41) than Fannin (31). The two leading wide receivers (Tillman and Jeudy) saw identical playing time. Each played 88% of snaps, ran 46 routes, and caught five of eight targets. Fannin’s targets per route run figure was just over 29%, essentially double Njoku’s (14.63%). That also led the wideouts’ 17.39% each.
Fannin wasn’t on the field as much as the Browns’ other leading skill players. But when he was, he was a focal point of the offense. In addition to the team-leading 21.4% target share, Fannin received a rush attempt from a wildcat formation. That was part of an obvious effort to utilize Fannin in different ways. He was deployed in-line, in the slot, out wide, and in the backfield at fullback (and as a wildcat). Fannin played far more in this game than anyone expected. Jordan Akins, last year’s backup tight end (no longer with the team), played on just 38.6% of snaps last season. Tillman’s numbers were far more than his average from last year. But both his and Jeudy’s playing time fell right in line with what Jeudy did in 2024.
The key to figuring this out is a pair of players no longer with the Browns. Elijah Moore and Michael Woods II were the Browns’ WR2 and WR3 by snap percentages last season. Tillman’s elevation makes sense given the absence of two players ahead of him from 2024. But rookie wideouts Jamari Thrash and Isaiah Bond only played 21 snaps each. That’s far below the kind of usage Cleveland gave their third receiver last season. Fannin, in his “Deebo Samuel-lite” role, essentially functioned as that third wideout, for playing time purposes.
As Minnesota’s offensive coordinator in 2019, Kevin Stefanski deployed 12 personnel almost 35% of the time. Only the Eagles used 2 tight end sets more than that season. His preference for multiple tight ends has continued in Cleveland. Sunday took it to the extreme. The Browns used two tight ends 50.7% of the time in Week 1. While it would be remarkable to maintain this level of production all season, Fannin is going to see playing time. By all indications, he’s going to be used when he’s in.
That doesn’t bode well for Njoku’s fantasy managers, or my personal projections. I had Njoku pegged as a tight end bargain with his TE10 ADP. With Flacco, he seemed a great alternative to taking one of the early-round tight ends, offering near-equivalent production at a five-round discount. The Chief should still be a startable tight end option, but he’ll be much more volatile than anticipated. Fannin leading the team in targets in his debut may have been a Week 1 fluke. But his effect on Njoku’s fantasy prospects is real. Fannin is the future at tight end for the Cleveland Browns. And the future is now.
Week 1 Fluke or Future: Is the Lions’ offense dead without Ben Johnson calling the shots?
Ouch. The Detroit Lions have been all over fantasy leaderboards in recent years. In 2024, Jahmyr Gibbs (RB2) and David Montgomery (RB18) were both starting options. Receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR3) and Jameson Williams (WR19) duplicated that feat. Jared Goff (QB6) and Sam LaPorta (TE7) each ranked top-10 on the season. Even kicker Jake Bates finished seventh in fantasy scoring at his position. That’s a rare offense, and a fantasy goldmine.
But Sunday against the Green Bay Packers, the Lions felt flat. They were out-matched physically by the Packers’ defense. Goff and company couldn’t generate any meaningful momentum. Their only touchdown came on a highlight-reel catch from rookie Isaac TeSlaa in the game’s final minute. Goff and LaPorta scored 10.9 half-ppr points apiece to lead the team. LaPorta’s TE6 finish was the team’s high-water mark in that regard.
Why the lack of success? Should this lead to consternation for fantasy managers who had to spend up for shares of this offense? Could it all be because of the loss of former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (now the Bears’ head coach)? Is the Green Bay defense just that good? Was it usage? Or is something else at play?
Let’s look at the usage first. Gibbs ran the ball just nine times in Week 1. With the Lions trailing from the Packers’ opening drive, that’s not unexpected. Combined with 10 targets in the pass game, he still received 19 total opportunities. That’s par for his course, as he averaged over 18 opportunities per game in 2024. But Gibbs had the worst rushing day of his career, averaging a mere 2.1 yards per carry. He also set a dubious mark by catching 10 balls for only 31 yards. That was the lowest yardage total for any player with at least 10 catches in a game in league history. Blech.
Montgomery likewise struggled to get anything going. On 11 carries, he averaged just 2.3 yards, tied for the second-worst mark of his time with the Lions. Four targets in the pass game meant he also saw plenty of opportunities; he just couldn’t make anything of them.
What of the wide receivers? St. Brown and Williams were on the field virtually the entire game, playing 63 and 65 of 67 snaps, respectively. Their route participation numbers were stellar. Williams was credited with 43 routes run out of a possible 44. The Sun God ran 42 routes. Williams’ five targets were below his 2024 rate, but above his career average per game. Target-sponge St. Brown saw just six looks, a tick below his career average of 8.6 and last year’s 8.3. But St. Brown’s yards per target came out a full yard below his career average. Williams’ average depth of target (ADoT) was an abysmal 5.2 yards. Normally a deep threat, the Packers were able to keep him corralled for the most part. Honestly, the usage doesn’t look like the limiting factor here. So what was?
Chalk this one up to a couple of factors. For one, the Packers just played a really sound game on defense. The Lions wanted to run the ball, but the Packers wouldn’t allow it. Their four sacks ranked third on the weekend. They also forced an interception to end a 13-play first-half drive inside their own redzone. Detroit converted three of four patented Dan Campbell fourth-down attempts. But Green Bay sacked Goff on the most important one. With under seven minutes to play, the sack gave the Packers the ball back in scoring position. They would kick a field goal to effectively end the game, going up by 21 points with just over four minutes left.
The second factor may be the play of the offensive line. Playing new starters at both guard spots and former guard Graham Glasgow at center looks like a work in progress. The Packers were able to generate consistent pressure on Goff despite the second-lowest blitz rate of any team in Week 1. That was especially true up the middle. Gibbs averaged just 2.0 yards before contact per rush attempt. That number was 3.3 last season. The Lions need to get their line in order if they want better results.
That line problem isn’t going away. But I trust Campbell to right the ship along the offensive line and restore order. With the usage each of the Lions saw, I don’t foresee complete disaster. They’re simply too talented to stay down for long. The lofty numbers of the Ben Johnson era may not be quite within reach. But Sunday looks like a one-off to me, even as a Packer fan. Continue to start your Lions with pride (pun intended). The future is brighter than this Week 1 fluke.