Welcome to Week 11: “Fluke or Future?” In this weekly article, we look back at surprising fantasy performances from “the week that was” in the NFL. Then, we look at the evidence to see if those performances were a fluke or if they’re indicative of prospects. Whether good or bad, we’ll discuss who “lucked out,” and who was “locked in.”
Week 11 Fluke or Future: Wilson Turns Up the Heat
Michael Wilson is a hot name on the waiver wire for Week 12- exactly one week too late. With the Cardinals’ leading receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. out after an appendectomy, Wilson ran wild in the desert in Week 11. Wilson’s 15 receptions and 18 targets were each the most in a game this season by anyone not named Ja’Marr Chase. His 185 yards marked the season’s highest receiving total. And his 26.0 half-PPR points ranked WR2 on the week, and were the highest score for any receiver this season without scoring a touchdown. The receptions, targets, yards, and fantasy points were all career-highs. The yardage total was particularly impressive. Not only was it Wilson’s first career 100-yard game, but it also almost doubled his previous career best of 95 yards. It was certainly a day to remember. The question for fantasy managers is whether this was an isolated incident.
Harrison’s appendectomy certainly came as a shock. Doctors performed the procedure on Monday, November 10. Conservative estimates for recovery time are two to four weeks before returning to strenuous activity. Playing wide receiver in the NFL likely qualifies as strenuous in the medical community, and I didn’t need Dr. Mrs. Thornton to tell me that. Harrison missed Week 11 and seems likely to miss at least Week 12 as well. In fact, fantasy managers probably shouldn’t count on Harrison returning until Week 14 or even Week 15. So, we’re looking at a two or three-week window for the Cardinals to be missing their top wideout. Normally, tight end Trey McBride would probably operate as the top pass catcher in such a circumstance. But is there hope for Wilson to continue producing?
The Brissett Factor
The Cardinals’ passing offense has found its greatest success this season with Jacoby Brissett under center. While it hasn’t translated to wins, five of the top six passing performances of the season for the Cardinals belong to Brissett. That includes Week 11, when Brissett set an NFL record with 47 completions. Brissett’s 452 yards passing were the most by a Cardinal quarterback since Kurt Warner had 472 yards against the New York Jets in 2008. The Cardinal pass catchers have benefited in fantasy from Brissett’s success as well. Since Brissett took over in Week 6, Trey McBride is the TE1 in fantasy by far. He’s averaging over three points per game, better than runner-up Brock Bowers in that metric. And in total points, he leads Oronde Gadsden by 33.7 points.
That success extends to the rest of the roster. Of the players who have played at least one game with each of Brissett and Kyler Murray, outside of Michael Carter (operating as basically the RB2) and Elijah Higgins (Arizona’s TE2), every Cardinal skill position player has had his best fantasy game with Brissett at the helm. That’s almost unbelievable. Murray’s best fantasy performance of 2025 was 18.3 points in Week 1, good for a QB14 finish. Brissett has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback every week he’s started. With Murray on the IR shelf for at least another three games, it’s reasonable to expect continued success for the Cardinal pass catchers. Obviously, that’s good news for McBride. But what about Wilson at the top of the wide receiver corps as we examine the Week 11 Fluke or Future?
The Case for Wilson
So, is there a case for Wilson in fantasy going forward? Well, we just saw a big piece of evidence for the positive this past Sunday. Any receiver rarely puts up a stat line like Wilson did this past week. I’ve already laid out how special that game was when juxtaposed against Wilson’s career to this point. But examining the Cardinals’ pass game results over the full season yields some interesting points to ponder. From Weeks 1-5, Harrison was the leading Arizona wideout each week. In three of those weeks, he was their top pass catcher overall (McBride took that title in the other two games). But since Brissett’s Week 6 ascendance, Harrison has only been the top wide receiver once. (Admittedly, it was his top fantasy performance of the season.) Wilson operated as the clear WR2 under Murray. But he’s been much more involved with Brissett.
From Week 1 through Week 5, Wilson averaged just 3.6 targets per game. But Wilson was averaging five targets a week before the 18-target explosion in Week 11. Brissett has done a good job of spreading targets and finding the open man. And that’s benefitted Wilson (and by extension, his fantasy managers). Wilson has been the most effective and consistent Cardinal wide receiver since Brissett took over. Arizona attempts the fourth-most passes in the league. With Brissett playing at his current high level, it stands to reason that Wilson should continue to have fantasy juice in Harrison’s absence. McBride will continue to be the top mismatch option, but Wilson can operate as the WR1. He’s been a capable WR2 on the field his whole career, but I think managers can view him as a WR2 with upside as long as Harrison is out.