Welcome to Week 2, Fluke or Future. In this weekly article, we look back at surprising fantasy performances from “the week that was” in the NFL. Then, we look at the evidence to see if those performances were a fluke or if they’re indicative of prospects. Whether good or bad, we’ll discuss who “lucked out,” and who was “locked in.”
Week 2 Fluke or Future: Punk’d by Ashton
Yuck. Fantasy managers spent a first-round pick on Ashton Jeanty this offseason. They had hopes that the top running back prospect would be a revelation on fantasy rosters. Instead, they’ve been greeted with mediocrity at best. Jeanty himself has run hard, as expected. But the Raiders’ offense looks like a complete mess at the moment. Poor offensive line play, inconsistent quarterback play, and interesting coaching decisions have conspired to tank Jeanty’s early-season fantasy results.
After two games, Jeanty sits tied for RB27 overall. He’s averaging a mere 2.7 yards per carry and has seen just six targets. He’s averaging 8.45 half-PPR points per game. That’s actually less than what you got out of Alexander Mattison last season on the same team. You really didn’t mean to draft Alexander Mattison with your first-round pick. So, what gives? Why is this happening, and will it ever come to an end? (Been asking that a lot lately… but I digress.)
Contributing factors
The offensive line play has been terrible for the Raiders. Last season’s #26-ranked offensive line (according to PFF) hasn’t even played up to that lowly ranking thus far. Geno Smith was pressured by the Chargers on over 35% of his dropbacks Sunday. That resulted in six hurries and three sacks, one week after surrendering four sacks to New England. In the run game, they’ve performed just as poorly. Raider runners averaged -0.4 yards before contact and lost 10 yards on tackles for loss. That’s led to tough sledding for Jeanty, but it’s also affecting him in another way.
You don’t have to watch many of Jeanty’s pass-blocking reps from Sunday to see he still has some work to do there as a pro. Jeanty played over 85% of the halfback snaps in Week 1. But in Week 2, that number slipped to barely above 55%. Zamir White and Dylan Laube were tasked with much more work than in the previous contest. The bulk of that work came on passing down reps, costing Jeanty valuable fantasy point opportunities. The line needs help on passing downs. If Jeanty can’t provide that, the Raiders will play someone who can more often in those situations. Not only will Jeanty miss out on pass targets, but his plays will be more telegraphed. Defenses can stack the box against him, knowing it’s likely not a pass.
Where do we go?
If the line can’t improve its play, it has the potential to torpedo the Raiders’ season. Even worse for fantasy managers, that would torpedo Jeanty’s fantasy season before it even leaves port. As stated, Jeanty himself has run hard. But he can’t reasonably be expected to score meaningful fantasy points if his yards after contact continue to be more than his total rush yardage. Unfortunately, the Vegas line looks like a sub-par unit. Barring major, immediate improvement there, Jeanty’s early-season struggles won’t be a fluke. Let’s just hope that those struggles won’t last too long into the future.
Week 2 Fluke or Future: Rome conquers the Bears’ pass game
After a somewhat disappointing debut season, many in the fantasy football world weren’t sure what to make of Rome Odunze. A darling of draftniks, Odunze was presumed to be Caleb Williams’s BFF. Fantasy managers assumed this meant that Odunze would be Caleb’s favored target. The reality of DJ Moore and Keenan Allen as the Bears’ top two receivers was a hard one to face. Odunze would finish third among the trio in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points.
But 2025 has brought several changes to Halas Hall and Soldier Field. Allen is back with the Chargers. In his place is journeyman Olamide Zaccheaus. Former Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is now the head coach in Chicago. Last season’s clear number one receiver, Moore, has struggled to find himself in Johnson’s system. But Odunze has thrived through two games.
Neat little story, or new narrative?
So far, Odunze leads the Bears’ receivers in each of the previously mentioned categories. The underlying numbers are interesting. Odunze and Moore have effectively traded places from a usage standpoint. Last year, Moore played 93.8% of snaps compared to 84% for Odunze. Through the first two games of 2025, Odunze has played 97% of snaps to just 85.9% for Moore. The numbers look like that all over the place. Moore’s 2024 target share was 24.7%, Odunze’s 17.8%. This year, Odunze leads Moore 29.4% to 16.2%. Moore was WR31 and Odunze was WR66 last season on a per-game basis. This year, Odunze is WR4, scoring 20.5 half-PPR points per game. Moore is just WR54.
There was a lot of speculation when Johnson signed with the Bears that Moore would step in as a one-for-one analog of Amon-Ra St. Brown in Johnson’s system. However, it’s been Odunze, not Moore, who has operated as the top option. While he’s being deployed differently from St. Brown schematically, Odunze’s snap percentage, routes run, and target share numbers all compare favorably with the Sun God’s under Johnson. Moore is a good player. But Odunze looks great so far under Johnson and out of Allen’s shadow. Expect the usage to continue as long as everyone stays healthy. It’s no Week 2 fluke. The man Chicago drafted as their future WR1 is their current and future WR1. Enjoy it.