Advanced fantasy players use advanced statistics to get ahead and fill out their rosters. Learning clever techniques for filling out your roster is what the offseason is all about. In this one, we’re using NBA.com’s advanced statistics page.
Team Pace Factor Coupled With Team Offensive Rating
Teams that play fast and are efficient help boost all of their fantasy players production. If two players have an equal usage rate, the one with more possessions gets more shots. More volume creates more counting stats across the board.
Two stats we consider for this are Pace Factor and Offensive Rating. A high Pace Factor means more possessions. A high Offensive Rating means better efficiency with those possessions. Combine the two, and that’s fantasy gold.
Cleveland and OKC, the two top teams in the NBA last year, were in the top ten in both rankings. So was fantasy-friendly Denver, who took OKC to seven games last year in the Western Conference Semis. Backups on dominant teams are always worth considering for your own bench spots. Let’s see some other teams to upgrade and downgrade.
Upgrade Atlanta Hawks (3rd in Pace Factor)
Atlanta is one of the up and coming teams in the Eastern Conference. They are also one of the most up-tempo teams, finishing third in Pace Factor last year. While their mediocre seventeenth-place finish in Offensive Rating might be a deterrent, it shouldn’t be.
The Hawks should be a better team this year offensively. Small forward Zaccharie Risacher, the #1 overall in the 2024 draft, was electric down the stretch for Atlanta last year. The return of PF Jalen Johnson helps with ball movement. SG Luke Kennard and C Kristaps Porzingis, major offseason additions for Atlanta, were both top 70 players in true shooting percentage last year.
With a high Pace Factor and an improved Offensive Rating, everyone can eat more easily on Atlanta. The danger on Atlanta is that there may be too many mouths to feed, so don’t reach too far. But worry less about Hawks players at their average draft position.
Downgrade Minnesota Timberwolves (25th in Pace Factor)
Minnesota is well-coached by Chris Finch. However, the Timberwolves were 25th in the NBA in Pace Factor last year, 23rd in the 2023-4 season. While their Offensive Rating was an excellent 8th, showing their efficiency, less possessions creates less opportunities to score. This won’t affect Anthony Edwards (8th in USG% in the NBA). Their Pace Factor will affect players who get less minutes like Terrence Shannon or Naz Reid.
If a team has a low Pace Factor, don’t get suckered in by a high Offensive Rating. Teams have to make shots to be efficient, and sometimes it happens, and sometimes it doesn’t. But a slow pace is a stylistic point that is unlikely to change mid-season without a coaching change.
Upgrade New York Knicks (26th in Pace Factor)
The Knicks are a surprise entry on this list. They had one of the lowest Pace Factors in the NBA last year. However, they fired last year’s coach, Tom Thibodeau, and it’s a new day in New York. New Knicks head coach Mike Brown likes an up-tempo game, and has come in talking about “pace and space.” Brown started running with the Sacramento Kings, his last team, which led to him winning Coach of the Year in 2022. New York’s Offensive Rating was fifth in the NBA last year, so any increased pace would normally lead to automatic upgrades.
However, the Knicks are likely to play a deeper bench this year after their starting five led the NBA in minutes last year. The increased pace should help offset decreased minutes for fantasy production. If you don’t upgrade Knicks players, don’t downgrade them as much as you normally would. Point guard Jalen Brunson, who runs the show in New York, is likely to benefit most from the change. Iron man Mikal Bridges, always a good draft pick because of his constant availability, may be next on that list.
Upgrade Detroit Pistons (11th Pace Factor)
Detroit was also fourteenth in Offensive Rating last year, putting them in the top half in both rankings. Frequently mentioned as a stealth contender, they were the 6th-youngest team last year. Generally, with age and experience comes increased efficiency. The Piston’s starting backcourt of Jaden Ivey and Cade Cunningham fit that model exactly.
Both players have improved their consistency in every season of their career. Ivey took a huge step forward last year before getting hurt, going from a poor 53.6% true shooting percentage to a respectable 56.9% mark last year in limited action. He’s a good draft target in the middle rounds, regardless of format. Cade needs little introduction for NBA fans, as the former #1 overall pick is also a strong early fantasy pick. For the first time, Cunningham is easily justifiable in the first round this year. He’s already a star, but the third-team All Pro improved all of his shooting metrics last year.
In addition, the Pistons also picked up veteran sharpshooters Duncan Robinson and Chris LeVert this offseason. Robinson is always good in category leagues as a 3-point specialist. LeVert is a great add if he’s getting serious minutes – though the Pistons probably hope he doesn’t since he’s Ivey insurance. They should help with floor spacing in the modern three-point happy NBA style. The whole Pistons starting lineup is fantasy-worthy, too. Watch out for Detroit.
More Downgrades: LA Clippers, Orlando Magic
The Clippers, 22nd in Pace Factor last year, weren’t likely to play a higher tempo, unless this veteran team is running to join AARP. They are less likely now that they have added Point God Chris Paul. CP3 is 40 years old and one of the best half court players of all time. There’s a reasonable chance that the Clippers play even slower this year. Worse, Paul is likely to take minutes from fantasy superstar James Harden.
The Magic play the slowest pace of anyone in the NBA. This isn’t likely to matter as much for ballhogs Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner (5th and 10th in usage rate respectively). But it is likely to stifle everyone else’s numbers somewhat. And it does take a little of the ceiling off of Banchero and Wagner.
Wild Card: Boston Celtics
Boston is an interesting wild card this season. Last year, the Celtics were second-best in Offensive Rating, and second-to-last in Pace Factor. Of course, this is before management took a chainsaw approach to the roster (reportedly saving over $300 million). Industry insiders are projecting the Celtics to fall from a sparking 61-21 record to around .500 this year.
The 2024-2025 Celtics had multiple good, aging versatile big men who played well in the half court. All of those players are gone for good. The Celtics are going to mostly have to play small this year. Usually, the smaller a team plays, the faster the pace.
At the same time, I would expect Boston’s offensive rating to nosedive, especially with superstar Jayson Tatum out for the season. Maybe this is Jaylen Brown‘s Scottie Pippen moment and he leads the team without Tatum – we’ll see. If the Celtics figure out how to remain efficient, this could mean upgrades for players like Brown, Payton Pritchard and Derrick White.
