Welcome to Redraft Buy-Low & Sell-High (October Edition). I highlight which players I am looking to acquire at a discount or trade away, while their value is at its peak.
We’re about halfway through the season, and there are plenty of underachievers and overachievers. Let’s take a look at a few and see who to target and who to trade away in your redraft leagues.
This monthly piece looks at some players I am looking to Buy-Low & Sell-High on before Week 9 kicks off.
BUY-LOW PLAYERS
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Jared Goff is only the QB18 in points per game so far this year. I expect that to change in the coming weeks. This week, he faces a Minnesota defense that has been giving up 21.8 ppg to quarterbacks the last three weeks, followed by a weak Washington defense, and an Eagles’ defense that has been average lately. To top it off, he gets Dallas and Pittsburgh in the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14-17).
Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown has not lived up to his draft position (RB11) this year, but he has looked a lot better since the Bengals got Joe Flacco. Now that they can move the ball in the passing game, the running game should open up more. Brown has a tough matchup this week against the Bears, followed by a bye week, but in Weeks 13-16, the schedule is weak, and he should feast.
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
In PPR points per game, DK Metcalf is only the WR18; however, he is the clear WR1 in Pittsburgh. With games against Indianapolis and Cincinnati in the coming weeks, and Baltimore, Miami, and Detroit in Weeks 14-16, he has one of the easiest remaining schedules. You can get a low-end WR1 for a WR2 price if you play your cards right.
Theo Johnson, TE, New York Giants
Since Jaxson Dart took over in New York (Week 4), Theo Johnson is the TE11 in points per game, and only Wan’Dale Robinson has more targets. With Cam Skattebo out for the season and Darius Slayton as their second-best receiver, Johnson will get a lot of targets the rest of the season and could easily finish in the top 8 tight ends the rest of the year.
Others to consider:
QBs: Brock Purdy (49ers), J.J. McCarthy (Vikings), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins)
RBs: Alvin Kamara (Saints), Bucky Irving (Buccaneers), Josh Jacobs (Packers)
WRs: Chris Godwin (Buccaneers), Roman Wilson (Steelers)
TEs: Mark Andrews (Ravens)
SELL-HIGH PLAYERS
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Bo Nix has been phenomenal lately, moving him up to the QB7 in points per game. Unfortunately, two of his next three games are against Houston and Kansas City, two of the best defenses against fantasy quarterbacks. Add to that a Week 17 game against Kansas City, below-average match-ups against Las Vegas (twice), Jacksonville, and Green Bay, and there is a lot of potential downside in his remaining match-ups. Sell him while you can for someone like Jared Goff or Jaxson Dart, with their favorable schedules, and upgrade WR or RB for your playoff run.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers
Rico Dowdle‘s owners were probably pretty excited this week when Panthers’ head coach Dave Canales said that Dowdle will be the starter and implied that he would not split so many carries with Chuba Hubbard. Now is the time to sell. He was great when Hubbard was out, and looked like the better back the last two weeks, but I don’t see it. Dowdle has a tough match-up this week and several more over the remainder of the season. There is a reason why he wasn’t named the starter in the offseason and did not stick around in Dallas. He is an RB3/bye week fill-in, not an RB2 with weekly RB1 upside, and I think we’ll see it in the coming weeks.
Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos
Like Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton has been good this year. He is the WR12 in total points and is Denver’s best receiver. However, he has the same tough schedule as Nix. Combine that with the emergence of Troy Franklin, and you have a recipe for fewer targets and fewer points. See if you can get someone like DK Metcalf or Chris Godwin to be a second or third receiver for you.
Hunter Henry, TE, New England Patriots
Hunter Henry has been a TE1 all season, but every week, it seems like Drake Maye is getting better and more comfortable throwing to his receivers. Henry has not received more than 5 targets since Week 3 and has only two touchdowns since then. Upcoming match-ups against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and the Jets, paired with playoff match-ups against Buffalo, Baltimore, and the Jets, do not bode well for the rest of his season. See if you can get Theo Johnson, or maybe Mark Andrews, for him.
Others to consider:
QBs: Drake Maye (Patriots)
RBs: D’Andre Swift (Bears), Jaylen Warren (Steelers)
WRs: Davante Adams (Packers)
TEs: Dallas Goedert (Eagles)
For more trade help, check out Aaron St. Denis’ Trade Value Charts, for both redraft and dynasty leagues, as well as IDP.